Bets Placed

I'm taking this as well, they have low limits for this one, but every two days or so they let me take some more. So I keep going back every two days. This is awesome value I think. UK being first to perform in the final makes me love this bet even more than I would otherwise. I'll be taking 2.1 for as long as they let me.. OK, not gonna put my net worth on it, but willing to go rather big 8)

Im (trying) to use as Gavster said a speculative to really fancy that 1-10,1 il have a little dabble ,10,expect it to come off.At least i think thats the idea.

I guess in simple terms im twice as confident in Italy winning/placing than i am of Greece/Romania.Maybe Gavster might add a bit if this is the approach and general idea,,as im not sure where value comes in,ie if i think Romania to place is better value than Italy,but still expect Italy to be more likely to place who should have the higher points?Gavster might add a bit unless hes listening to trackshittaz

Not that I'm going to bet,but it would be nice to follow some of your bets and arguments as to the whys and wherefores..

Me too Archi,il keep taking some of that,as you say the hump from 1 says enough,of course Greece could get 2,but outstanding value .Its these sort of bets that can really pay.Hidden away in the bowels,shining jewels.

I guess the point system also has to take into account the odds that are given? If someone gave me odds on Sweden to win @ 25.0 I would give it 10pts and bet big on it. But with 3.25 I dont want to even touch it. It doesnt necessarily mean that one expects the bet to hit home, it simply means how much you like that particular bet(?). Like, if someone gave me odds of 50.0 for UK to win, I would take it gladly and rate it 10pts. Not because there is really a 1/50 shot for UK to win, but because it is so much over the market price that one can make profit with it no matter what. I was also under the impression that pts mean how much you bet on that. Like, everyone has their own system probably. for someone 1pts is 1% of bankroll, for other 1pts might be 0.1% of bankroll etc. But in a way it's the same thing, since if someone bets 10pts on any given bet, he/she must think it's a good bet. So it would be nice to have common understanding on what the pts mean, but I dont know if it's that necessary. If someone bets big pts on some bet I automatically assume they like the bet and are confident it's a good bet.

Just my $0.02

ps. What is witht he UK odds to win? ~15.0, seriously? I dont get it

So far Steve i always try to look for value.That period is almost through.For instance Romania,i backed heavily at 41-1,why?,well i thought it was the best of that type of song.I thought it the most likely to get played on the radio,and i expected it to shoot up the Youtube hits list.I figured then the price would shorten,ie come in to 33-1,maybe 25-1.Then i would lay back off a lot of my bet and have a choice to take a profit,or as i will do run an each way top 4,top 10 bet on Romania for free.
So to lay back off i need the Betfair price to be below 41-1 for a profit.
Italy i think is outstanding.A wonderfull singer and full of class,but hasnt a perfect draw.But we are betting to win money.I got 16-1,17-1 i think great value,now 10-1,still ok value.Only ok.
Greece,because i think the song has great potential for the stage.I backed Greece for the potential.I think Gavster mentioned it would look great with a street dance going on etc and thats one reason.
Of course underneath also the friendly votes etc .
Its a minefield isnt it,but all good fun.

Agree with all that Archi,i think that sums it up very well.As for the UK price.Id say simply the bookies giving terrible odds to all the home punters who back the hump EW.Or the sinister me thinks maybe let the locals think "oh the hump is 4th favourite,must have a chance,il take a bit"as the bookies rub their mits.

I seem to remember Anna Vissi for Greece being talked up in 2006,and she ended up on the floor in more ways than one..

Yes and a lot of cut and thrust to come.Eurovision is like a great murder mystery book,slowly dropping clues,some red herrings and a big fat aaaaargh at the end.Thats why Betfair is such a friend.IF you can call things ,you can trade out a lot of positions.Of all betting events the ESC does tend to offer some amazing odds.The shrewd way is the match bets/top ten/qualify etc markets but i just love a tinkle on the top 4 early,its probably some form of illness.No,it IS a form of illness

Another word on the points system which is used across the whole of betnod and other forums (as far as I'm aware).

Ok... you use it in relation to your bankroll. It's so lesser punters don't feel ashamed and inferior etc.

So, if your max bet is £100 - that would be a 10pt bet. Likewise, £10 would be 1pt. Obviously, each of us have our own scales, but the point system never changes. Get it?

And I've just increased my stake in UK vs Greece to 10pts.

Oh anything not to make lesser punters feel ashamed and inferior..

Thank Gavster,

3pts spain vs GERMANY 5/6 @StanJames
1pt Latvia to Qualify 11/4 @SportingBet ,before im destroyed on this one,i think in semi 1 they have a very slight chance,and i think 11/4 is too big,tiny bit of interest.

I go to a double today

Bremen - Munich over 2.5 goals
Gladbach - Dortmund over 2.5 goals

25€ * 2,79 Gamebookers

hehe, thanks! But I was under the impression this is for Eurovision bets only. Otherwise this thread would get pretty crowded and messy. I'll take that tip though, just for fun.

I wont destroy you for that bet, I've been looking at the same bet for a few days now, havent bet just yet though. I've been also thinking that they have a chance from SF1. And the song has been growing on me. Altohugh I realize it's kinda peculiar.. Maybe I should just bet also to leave it behind me then

uhh... thanks I am confused as well

@Mod
please place it in the right Thread ;)

Semi2 no chance but 1 a tiny one,IMO 11/4 a bit too big.What do you think of that Germany/Spain match bet Archi,i might increase it as im warming to Germany.

If I had to bet I would choose Germany as well, but I dont quite like 5/6 (that's 1.83, right?). It's close though, as with odds of 2.0 I would bet for Germany for sure. I've been following this pairings odds also, but feel like there is only small value, if any.

Strenght wise those songs are very close to each other, with small edge on Germany. I feel like Germany has slight edge in three different categories: song itself, language (English songs tend to do better), and going right after spain.In my mind all those combined makes Germany a favourite in this pairing. So I might snatch 1.83, but I'm hoping it maybe rises a bit.. and that's when I'll be betting on it

I dont know how much looks affect the outcome, and both of them are attractive for sure. So I think looks-wise it's a tie. I dont know which ones get more votes simply on looks, men or women. I would think men, but I'm not sure. It's different genre, and different age groups vote on these things, but looks like in other music competitions it's harder for women to win than it is for men. If someone follows American Idol they would know what I mean. (same in Finland, men get the teen girl attention) Good looking guys tend to get votes simply on their looks, but the same thing doesnt seem to work with attractive women. Looks like teenage girls are more fanatic in voting simply for good looks. Teenage boys dont vote as much, they just drool.

I think too they are pretty even,but i think Germany has the advantage for the female vote.That made it a bet.I think il watch the odds and if it does go to evens,increase to 5pts.

Thinking about the gender issue it's more evenly split today than in the past when male singers rarely got a look-in. Germany's song is pretty dire,let's be honest,and I don't envy you working out whether it will beat an equally poor Spanish song. Spain does have to compete with the likes of Azerbaijan,France,Italy,maybe Ukraine whereas Roman has tough competition with Tooji and Zeljko. I think you're right about teenage boys not voting as much,but teenage girls will vote for other females;it's the middle-aged females who won't vote for their younger and more attractive sex.