Rugby Union 2018 Six Nations

What did he say?

Hello traeth

Busy procrastinating at work here, so thought I'd make a short diversion into this thread. The -32 point cap in the Ireland games looks well breachable. In the last 6 years against Italy (i.e. three home games), the scores have been 42-10, 46-7 and 58-15. Italy's traditional strength - the scrum, has got weaker and Ireland have got stronger in that area. You'll probably see significant game time for some of Irelands new generation - the Carbery, Larmour, McGrath, Leavy, Ryan, Conan group and these guys are fast, fit, skillful and full of confidence in the running game that Leinster are playing. Conor O'Shea has already said he'll freshen up the team, and I don't see it being any stronger than it was against England. Ireland won't turn over the ball often and will be fair close to as ruthless as England, but probably tighter in defence than England were.

England-Wales will be interesting. I think Wales forwards are vulnerable to attack, and England have the beef to do it. Wales confidence will be sky-high though, and they have tended to bounce back well from poor seasons (like last) under Gatland. Their record over the last 10 years against England is ok - 6 wins from 14, including 3 at Twickenham. Most games have tended to be one score results. Not made up my find fully on this one, but instinct says Wales to beat the +11

Scotland -5 to France jumps out at me as strange. Scotland have only won twice against France in 6N history, and only once in the last 10 years. Most recent games have been fairly close, but while Scotland have hinted at improvements (particularly under Vern Cotter), France have been shit for most of that time. I was quite impressed with them against Ireland last weekend though - their defence was really excellent, and their set-piece was good. Scotland have no front row to speak of, and their pack (with these injuries) is average on a good day. Finn Russell is a nice footballer, but disappears under pressure and I'm not convinced by any of their nines. My only slight concern would be France's discipline - they gave away some daft penalties last Saturday. That should be easily fixable, and I don't see Scotland being able to put enough pressure on up front to force many. I can't therefore see Scotland running up much of a score here, while the physical power of the French should be enough to generate points. I'll be surprised if France don't win by at least a score here.

I fancy France. They've broken that cap in most of the recent games, and I think it has been a clever move by Brunel to drop all the guys. He'll have some hungry motivated players with a point to prove tonight.

Most Wales-Ireland games are closer than 10. I hope I'm wrong, but that +10 for Wales looks tasty to me. Ireland have some significant injuries, and Wales are always up for this one.

Can't see past England in this game. I really don't rate Scotland that highly, and I think their game against England last year and Wales this, are better benchmarks than some close shaves in the autumn international. England are strong in all the areas Scotland are weak. England -6

Well got those ones pretty wrong! Bookies bang on the handicap on two, and if I was reaching for excuses I'd say it was last minute scores that undid me in both. But of course last minute/first minute doesn't matter!

I like the way Italy are moving, and their young full-back looks like a gem. France look blunt, but they're at least playing with some character. A stung England will probably be too much for them, but I can it being a real arm-wrestle.

Ireland rewound the clock ten-fifteen years in terms of what used to work for them beating Wales - strangling them up front and playing keep-ball. Worryingly, Ireland's wide defence looks pretty suspect once again, and both England and Scotland have the pace and players to punish it. Their work up front is impressive. Wales, as I suspected, miss their relatively few world class forwards badly, and will remain vulnerable to teams who deny them the ball. They're great to watch in full flow though. With France and Italy to come, they should get another 9-10 points and possibly a runners-up spot.

Really didn't see that Scotland performance coming, and am still trying to evaluate. I'm pretty sure England were bad, but I'm not sure how good Scotland were. You have to give credit for scoring 3 tries in a fixture where you previously had to go back to 2004 for their last one! Eddie Jones must be worried that his side hasn't really fired in 2 years with the exception of last years Scotland game. Townsend will be cock-a-hoop. Scots destiny in their own hands with 2 games to come - if they overcome Ireland they have Italy on the last day and it'd be hard to back against them being in serious contention for the title

Last weeks results:
France 34-17 Italy (on the handicap!)
Ireland 37-27 Wales (on the handicap!)
Scotland 25-13 England (England were -6)

This weeks handicaps
Ireland -10 vs Scotland
France +7 vs England
Wales -28 vs Italy

Ireland - Scotland
I'm obviously biased on this one, so caveat emptor. It is a mark of how high expectations are now around Joe Schmidt and his team that (a) so many people are talking about a Grand Slam and (b) there is some dissatisfaction with how Ireland are playing. The former is probably understandable and all countries would be doing it in the same position, but it obviously has its dangers and Scotland are improving for sure. The latter is poorly informed in some quarters, but there are some issues to be concerned about - a recurrence of long-standing weakness on the wings/margins in defence, concession of late scores in games, and relatively little scoring given the percentage posession. The latter is in part down to how Ireland play, and how teams have played against them recently, but there are grounds for Scottish hope and concern for Irish supporters. However, I think Schmidt has been clever with his selections this week. There is real impact from the bench, Ringrose (if not too rusty - and he has coped well in the past in similar situations) is a very clever defender and there are key individuals - Larmour and Murphy with points to prove. Scotlands away record is abysmal, and even if they're improving overall this Irish team looks better to my eyes in most positions - particularly around the spine of 2,8,9,10,12. Scotlands scrum coped against England and Wales, but I think they could get an examination here. Scrums don't tend to settle games these days, even with the forecast poor, but they can confer a psychological and momentum advantage. Lineouts are likely to be won on throw - Irelands greater experience and possibly better individual jumpers nullified by Bests propensity to have a few leery throws. Irelands breakdown has been excellent and will continue to need to be against this outfit - they'll be helped though by having Barnes with the whistle, who unlike Owens in their last game, doesn't tend to allow much contest at the breakdown. As with most recent games I expect Irelands half-backs to ultimately settle this. My heart is more confident than my head, but I'm going with Ireland -10

France - England
France have been so shambolic in recent years, that I feel some people aren't giving them due credit for some things they're getting right in the last few months under Brunel. Ultimately its all about getting the W's, and they haven't done enough of that. They have however, only conceded 4 tries this season. England, in truth, have been fitful for the last 12-18 months, only rarely putting some impressive play together, but they have been getting the wins. That was brought to a fairly stark halt last time out, and it'll be interesting to see what sort of reaction it engenders. I suspect France will be enormously motivated for this game. Beat Les Rosbifs and the season can be considered progress (barring some calamity against Wales), but lose and it could be seen as falling further behind. I'm not convinced they can win, but they handicap does look tempting. France +8

Wales-Italy
Not sure yet about this game. Wales have disappointed a little this season, even allowing for injuries and Gatland has gambled (a little) by changing up his team for this game. They won't lose, but if they don't win handsomely, the last game against France will be tricky. As of now I'd marginally lean towards Wales to beat the cap as Italy often run out of steam this late in the tournament, and the high tempo game of Wales can trouble their defence particularly late in the game. I do see signs of Italian improvement though, so will reserve a final call till tomorrow or Sunday morning.

haven't had time to consider the welsh game in detail, but going to back Wales to beat the cap

logic for above is largely based on Italy defence, particularly in the 10-13 area. Also Wales' attack has improved a lot in the last couple of years and with lots of fresh energy I expect this to be a very open game. Italy traditionally had a pack they could go to here, but those days are gone