Premiership Relegation 2012/13

Maybe a tad early for a thread like this ​

but so what.​

I've just looked at the relegation prices and, quite frankly, they are shit. 6/1 and less for half the league? That's a joke.​

The key to profitable relegation betting is to back and lay throughout the next 9 months so that you eventually end up either "greening up" with a bet to nothing, or at least getting your stake back. Bookies (or I should probably say punters, as they are the ones who drive the demand and therefore change the prices) overreact massively to every little thing that happens on a weekly basis. A team signs or sells a player and their price changes without a ball being kicked or a point being won or lost. I have to say that the liquidity to lay on ​

betfair​

is not great and therefore you are never going to make the very best of these price changes but there is enough in it for you to at least get yourself an interest (if not an eventual profit) by having a go on this market.​

If you fancy a lowly team to cause an upset, you could back them to win or draw no bet or the asian handicap and have a day's interest on it but you could also lay them to be relegated and, if they lose, you could find that you have a live bet in a couple of weeks when the situation changes.​

I'm going to try to keep an eye on this when the markets have chosen their four or five most likely candidates (rather than ten of them) so I have no firm view on who to back or lay at the moment but I would draw people's attention to the fact that the Premiership rules on pitch sizes have changed this year with a view to standardising all pitches. The rule says:​

The Pitch ​

K.21. Unless otherwise permitted by the Board, in League Matches the length ​

of the pitch shall be 105 metres and its breadth 68 metres.​

"So, Who cares?" You might say. I'd hazzard a guess that Stoke City care. Unless they have a special dispensation to have a narrower pitch (which, as I understand it, is only there for use in the event that a team cannot physically play to those dimensions for some reason) they will be playing on a pitch significantly narrower than they have done in the past. I won't insult anyone by assuming that they don't know that Stoke's major weapons are their physicality and (tied into that) their long throws into the oppositions box to be battled for.​

They won 11 and drew 12 of their home games in the Prem last year. The touchlines they are launching their long throws from will both be about six and a half feet further away from the penalty spot than they have previously been and it will be interesting to watch tomorrow's home game (live on TV) and see how many throws they can cause trouble from given the changes.​

I'm not saying Stoke are value to go down. At 6/1 they are most definitely NOT!. I'm just saying that everyone should take a view on who may possibly struggle, keep an eye on the prices, and not be put off by any narrow or unlucky losses over the formative weeks of the season.​

Thank you for listening (assuming you didn't get bored and fuck off ten minutes ago​

)​

Not really mate, after I posted about it in the thread, I thought I'd check the relegation prices and I was amazed at how shite the prices were generally and when I decided to post about that, I thought I might as well start a relegation thread at the same time as it's going to appear at some stage and everyone with their 20-20 hindsight goggles on will be saying that they always knew that Everton were going down all along. You know how it is.

In actual fact, I was absolutely delighted when Stoke got promoted. I worked there for a few years and I know how passionate they are about their football and their recent history was pretty similar to my club as far as flitting up and down the divisions went. They even built the same stadium model at the same time. Since then, they've been more successful in staying in the Prem and i've been one of their defenders against the whingers who attack their style of football at times. The premiership is not a fucking beauty contest. If you get the required number of points, you stay up and that's it. I just wonder how they can carry on with the same recipe before it gets stale and stops working. I know that knowing what they're going to do and stopping it are two different things but I just think this might be the year that they struggle.

I might be wrong. I've been called a loon before - I think it was when I was predicting Blackpool to be relegated when they were mid table

I was going to mention that Swoops. In fact I typed it and deleted it again. I think there was only me and you on the planet if I remember rightly

Villa - I'd be tempted to say that opening fixtures can often be ignored and that they lost to an in-form team but only 10 goals in 16 matches and just 3 shots on target yesterday at home? Not good. They were the draw specialists at the back end of last season and it looks like they are setting up not to be beaten, rather than to win which is not only bad news for their relegation prospects, it also makes for piss-poor viewing for the poor cunts who've got to watch them every week.

I'd like to add some good news but their next game is a cup match against a lower league team who have won two and drawn one of their first three fixtures - a no-win situation if ever I've seen one. If they win, it will be nothing more than expected and if they lose the hounds will be baying. I'll be backing Villa no matter what the price or what team they put out (it can't be a worse one than this lot at the moment).

I'm still reasonably optimistic about this season although the team selection against Everton was strange. I'm convinced there is a decent team in there which a good manager will be able to bring out. Villas' form pre season was quire good with Lambert trying to change the style played in the last few seasons. After last season a few players look short of confidence but hopefully a good couple of wins will kick start them.

Is he an architect?

Apparently we had thirteen shots against Newcastle - nine of them on target. Thats more than we had all last season i think

Villa will be fine, there's a few poor teams this year. Southampton dont seem to be as fit as they should be IMO which will just get worse.
Not exactly on topic but I was alerted to this wee nugget, WHU to finish above Reading and Soton , ie top newcomer, 2.5 at bet victor

worst case, they are struggling , sack big fat Sam and install twitcher, guaranteed top half finish

QPRs price rises from odds on to around evens with Harry taking over

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...tml?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

I've Capitulated - Villa are doomed