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Cheltenham 2021

Discussion in 'CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2021' started by Topdog, Feb 3, 2021.

  1. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,791
    Tuesday 2.30 - One for the team
    Thursday 2.30 - Min
    Thursday 4.15 - Glens of Antrim
    Friday 4.15 - Elimay

    Not got many ante post bets this year. Only one I think I've lost is French Aseel although there might be a couple more but with them swapping some races over I've got a bit confused.
    Topdog likes this.
  2. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,801
    I'm hoping GOSHEN can win in the Champion Hurdle and gain compensation for last years unluckiest of defeats in the Triumph. 10 lengths clear when falling at the last. With an odds boost i'm on @ 9/2

    A long shot but with a view to a lay should he have a winner or three in the first two days, i'm on Dan Skelton to be top trainer @ 65 with a small bet.
    I'll also thinking of backing every horse he runs at small, level stakes.
    Topdog likes this.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540
    Goshen is the most likely for me Punt. Its run last time out was damned impressive. If they all run as listed on oddschecker it should be a cracking race-possibly the most exciting of the week.

    I haven’t had an antepost bet for the first time in years and years. Largely down to the uncertainty of the covid situation and the dead horse uncertainty didn’t help but mostly because i’ve been losing regularly and i’ve reigned in my betting a bit.

    I’m a liar.
    I’ve just remembered i think i did have a couple of small bet on envoi alan after the drama kicked off and Aspire Tower ew but i think that was for a race on the Thursday and not the champion hurdle so i’ll be backing that ew as well if it runs in that.

    i’ve got my usual week off to watch it so just starting to get a bit interested but nothing like the excitement of previous years.
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  4. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,801
    Same here.

    Great Britain are 5/1 for the Prestbury Cup. I was hoping for a bit bigger than that but i took it anyway. Again with a view to lay some if the opportunity arises.
    Topdog and SAMOAN like this.
  5. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,801
    SPORTING JOHN @ 12/1 each way in the Brown Advisory Novice Chase on Wednesday. I've added this one with an e.w single and an e.w double bet with GOSHEN.

    SJ has to face the impressive Monkfish who is odds on but i'm hoping he can fair better than last yrs heavy defeat when 2nd fav to Envoi Allen and finish in the placings at least. Trainer said SJ finished distressed after the race, i'm hoping for better this time round.
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  6. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

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    10,753
    Non Runner despite race cutting up and goes for a handicap
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540
    Altior out

    Going at the moment soft (good to soft in places).
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540
    I'll be backing Sky Pirate - it owes me nothing after a big pay day last year
    Topdog likes this.
  9. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

    Messages:
    10,753
    This Festival turning out to be a bit of a anti climax with small fields and high profile withdrawals
    Punter likes this.
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,540
    Yep. Worst festival I can remember apart from the days that have been called off altogether. Just gonna be another race meeting
    Punter and Topdog like this.
  11. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

    Messages:
    10,753
    Playing two outsiders tomorrow

    3.40-Black Tears @ 14-1...ran well here last year

    4.50-Ofalltheginjoints @ 25-1 [Without Galvin]...Unexposed [3 places]

    Both each way with Bet 365
    Punter likes this.
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540

    I'm also on Black Tears
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  13. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,801
    I should know the answer to this but i don't..

    If you back a horse each way 3 places ante post, but then the field gets reduced to just 6 at the decs, do you still get 3 places or is it reduced to 2?
  14. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

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    10,753
    Should be the place odds advertised when bet taken unless stated otherwise
    Punter likes this.
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,540
    As Topdog says, you get whatever the odds were when you put the bet on AS LONG AS it is on the antepost market and not just a bet put on a couple of days in advance as a lot of bookies are now offering odds for races two days away. I ended up with a decent double figure ew bet (can't remember the odds) on Politologue in the Queen Mother chase last year and it only needed to finish in the top three out of five to make me a profit (it ended up winning). The amount of runners has meant that this is one of the race recent years that it may have been worth bothering with the antepost market
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  16. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540
    Day 1 donkeys
    120 Metier I haven't really had any big bets cos I'm cutting back at the moment but I really think this beat what will end up being the odds-off favourite

    155 Obviously the fave should piss it but I've gone for Captain Guinness with money back if second offer

    230 Two out of my trakcer, Pymm ew 16/1 and Milan Native ew 9/1. Both a bit higher than they are at the moment but only taken 4 places and 5 places are available so they'll probably dead heat for fifth:lol

    305 I will be backing Goshan - thought I already had but can't find it in my open bets. Aspire Tower and Abracadabras are in my tracker so I'll blow my fiver free bet on one and back the other ew

    340 Another one I iike (along with metier) is Black Tears and I'm on at 14/1 but here's one from left field, My Sister Sarah 66/1 but has had a recent wind operation so could it surprise ? Probably not.

    415 Reviere Detel ew 12/1 and Coltor (backed 8/1, now 10s and drifting further)

    450 Next Destination 5/2 and Nester Park 33/1 4 places

    Good luck everyone
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  17. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,801
    Good luck all :thumb
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  18. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,900
    I'm taking on the odds-on fav APPRECIATE IT in the opening Supreme Hurdle - as I've posted before, no previous winner of this race had a sire stamina index of under 10.0 (some didn't have one), and todays fav has one of just 9.1.

    This race always seems to be a dour test of stamina for a 2 miler, you really need to be able to stay 2.5 miles well. This is probably down to the race nearly always being run at a decent clip, but the small field this year might not see this happen but with the ground being soft then the winner will need to stay very well. The last 3 winners on soft ground had sire stamina index's of 12.4, 14.1 and 15.0.

    After his win in December his trainer said "I was wondering if he was a two-and-a-half mile horse or a two-mile horse. I know he can easily do it over two and a half, but to come back to two miles and put in a performance like that in a Grade 1 was impressive. I'd say we'll go down the two-mile route now. He's not flashy like Ferny Hollow but he has a great cruising speed and covers a lot of ground which helps him to burn other horses off."

    Cruising speed is not really suited to the Supreme Hurdle and I think he'll be outstayed at the business end. His class might well get him home but his odds look too skinny for me. I've layed him in the 4TBP market at 1.17 in case he bottoms out completely (or falls/unseats). I'll have a look at his rivals in the morning.
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  19. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,900
    Also his trainer and jockey weren't overly happy with his jumping last time, another negative.

    His form on flat tracks reads 11111, while both his runs on tracks with an uphill finish have seen him beaten.

    He looked sure to win the Champion Bumper at last years Festival but flattened out after cruising in to the lead on the bridle (went 1.5 in-running), beaten by his stronger staying stablemate Ferny Hollow who has a sire stamina index of 11.6.
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2021
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540
    Perversely, the fact that Cheltenham had so much rain on Sunday seems to me to be the reason it’s shortened in price from 5/4 to odds on as its form is on soft and heavy and that’s the very factor that you are thinking will get it beat due to the lack of stamina.

    The trouble with spotting a weakness in one is is that you need to have something that’s going to beat it that doesn’t have the same issues and although I’ve backed Metier, if I was placing a bet now after looking at your analysis Id be going for Blue Lord which at least has form at 2m 4 on heavy ground. looks a steal of an we price at 10/1 whether it wins or not

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