Semi Final 1 - 22nd May 2012

Updated to account for running order

I can see 5 songs which should qualify by right:Iceland,Denmark(grr),Israel,Romania,Ireland.
I will concede that Russia will probably qualify,so that leaves 4 places.
Definite non-qualifiers in my opinion:Montenegro,San Marino
This leaves 4 from Greece,Cyprus,Latvia,Switzerland,Hungary,Finland,Albania,Austria,Moldova,Belgium.
It's tight this year,so I'm just going on personal favourites. I would put through Hungary,Latvia,Cyprus and Albania.

I have to admit, I'm cooling my interest in Finland a little. Seems a risky prospect.

Disagree with Ireland being almost certain to qualify. It's crap. They might squeeze in from the perfect spot, but it's not given.

Well it's not a vintage year for Eurovision,apart from Loreen. You may be right about Eleftheria,it's a little too soft-porn for my liking,but the softer songs may squeeze through in this time of economic austerity,including Latvia and Ireland,another version of which I've found here.

All I can hear is the masses of computers trying to make their voices sound in tune. It's soooooo digitised!

Apparently, they're embarking on a massive Eurovision tour now, so semi-final support should be in the bag. The juries really will loath this.

For what it's worth, a quick rambly preview I added to escbet:

Will there be sufficient viewers left after Montenegro’s opener to hold a televote in this semi? Will the Romanian lass go the whole hog and have Eurovision’s first pornographic stage show? Will all the Russian grannies make it to the end of the show? These questions and more will be completely ignored in this preview of semi-final one, including an early stab at the ten who will progress.

I’ve heard more pleasant sounds coming from my work’s toilet after we’ve been out for a team lunch at the Curry Club than Montenegro’s opener. After a few of the surprising qualifiers last year we have to be a little careful about entirely counting songs out, as strange things can happen. However, those surprising results tend to come as a result of the jury vote, and this has nothing to appeal to the panels, and not enough friendly votes to save it. NON QUALIFIER.

2nd isn’t a good draw for Iceland, but that’s softened by following the mess of Montenegro. I’ve long loved this song and I think Iceland will finish top 3 with the juries, and perhaps top 5 with the televoters, translating into a potential top 3 spot in the semi. The draw for me diminishes the chances of winning the semi – as it’s not a song that has instant impact despite being very polished and so would need a late draw to get the televote required to win. Maybe. QUALIFIER

Likewise, going early doesn’t suit Greece, but at least it is sandwiched between a pair of slower songs. Unfortunately, I think that’s where the positives end – Iceland is a polished and well presented entry, whereas it’s more than likely that Greece will appear a little too frantic and with a few too many vocal wobbles to do well with juries. Nevertheless, just about a QUALIFIER

Having a couple of songs likely to qualify from the first three spells trouble for whatever follows, as the earlier numbers are typically less likely to make it. Let’s hope it’s not a middle of the road number then. Oh. During Latvia people are off filling up the kettle or doing whatever it is they put off in order to perv on Greece’s mildly pornographic stage show. It might have had some kind of a shout with the juries if the lyrics weren’t so terrible – as it is I can’t see where the votes are coming from. NON QUALIFIER

Normally, one of the few ballads in a generally up tempo semi would be looking at good qualification prospects – but I’m not sure that Albania takes advantage. It’s trumped by slightly more instant down tempo numbers both before and after, which leaves the jury vote or friendly votes as its most likely route to the final. They can count on a little of each, which all in all leaves this one right on the cut line – and it will drop above or below based on performance on the night. As it stands, a marginal NON QUALIFIER

If Romania could have picked a song to follow, it would probably have been Albania. It sticks out like a sore thumb, and if that accordion riff isn’t significantly memorable then the cleavage on show probably will be. A solid televote score and a smattering of jury points will see this one through – QUALIFIER.

A Swiss pop-rock number drawn midway through a semi would usually be complete fodder, but I actually fancy the chances of this. There’s very little treading on its toes, and it’s got more of a chart sound than almost anything else in the semi – it ends up sticking out just by being a vaguely normal, mainstream song in amongst some very zany efforts. Marginal QUALIFIER

Belgium’s ballad this year is one of the most unimaginative for a long while – far too sickly. It’s the same style as Austria last year, with all the positives such as a good vocal and big finish taken away. Bottom 3 of the televote looks likely, and the jury vote won’t be big enough to rescue it. NON QUALIFIER

By contrast Finland offers up a much more ‘authentic’ ballad. As a result I think this will prove infinitely more popular with the juries, and the repetitive nature of the song should secure just enough televotes to guide it to the top ten, despite the usual struggles of an own language ballad. QUALIFIER

In a zany semi, Israel is probably the zaniest of the lot. It has a good draw following the ballads, but if one of the pointers given to juries is to reward potentially commercial songs then this will find itself towards the bottom of the pile. It’s marmite enough to gather some televote support, but with France voting in semi 2 I can’t see this one appearing again on the Saturday night. NON QUALIFIER

San Marino – NON QUALIFIER

Bit of a Greece Mk 2 with La la love and they are likely to be fishing in the same pond. Fewer friendly votes, but a better draw for Cyprus and as much as I expect this to be quite messy on stage with very average vocals, given what comes from this point until the end of the show it seems just about memorable enough to make it. QUALIFIER

Wasn’t much of a fan of Denmark early on – and in terms of overall Eurovision winning potential I’m still not, but in this semi it’s a welcome injection of well performed normality. It sticks out well and in between Cyprus and Russia and will be endearing enough to corner a large chunk of jury votes. Not sure that she is good enough to put in a semi winning performance though – but if Russia struggle with the juries and Iceland don’t capture enough televotes then it might not have to. QUALIFIER

Given that the Eurovision limit of on stage performers is 6 and that those 6 spots are already taken up by 6 grannies with varying degrees of senility then Russia doesn’t have any scope for tidying their song up with some backing singers. As a result it’s likely to be a mess, but in terms of the televote it won’t matter as the endearing sight of a dementia-riddled octogenarian wondering where the f*** she is will have the Eurovision halfwits picking up the phone in their droves. Strong televote, poor jury vote, QUALIFIER

On all evidence so far Hungary is a bit of a disaster live, which is a shame as I think this one could sneak in otherwise. It has the potential to stand out well in this semi – and there is some room for manoeuvre. In the live final the lead singer was given almost no vocal help, but if they can add a couple of good backing singers, then it might just take advantage of a good draw. NON QUALIFIER at the moment.

Austria has no televote appeal, no jury appeal, and I’ve so little time for it that I’m listening to their 2011 entry again while writing this, rather than the actual song. NON QUALIFIER

As it stands Moldova’s stage show and vocals are looking pretty ropey, but the backing track and good draw should be enough to secure a big enough televote to get through. It’s a fairly accessible song, one that’s easy to get into when hearing for the first time. For me there’s room for only one of Israel and Moldova to go through, and as it stands this one has the spot fairly comfortably. QUALIFIER

As much as I disliked Lipstick, Waterline is light years behind it in terms of Eurovision potential. This type of song has been done and failed before, and it’s far less suitable to their vocals and performances than 2011 was. The draw and existing European fan base will see Ireland through, but not much more. QUALIFIER

So my current predicted finishing order – and it’s worth remembering that songs can change quite considerably between now and kick off – would be:

1. Denmark
2. Russia
3. Iceland
4. Romania
5. Greece
6. Moldova
7. Finland
8. Ireland
9. Switzerland
10. Cyprus
11. Albania
12. Israel
13. Latvia
14. Hungary
15. Austria
16. Belgium
17. Montenegro
18. San Marino

Bets wise, Iceland for a top 3 finish at anything around 2/1 is worth a second look. For qualification, Switzerland and particularly Finland(treading on Gav’s toes a little with that one) at odds against, and Israel not to qualify at evens or better.

Heh. Verrrry similar to my list, actually. Hesitant about Switzerland though, I'd definitely wait with that one. Albania is hard to tip, as well.

I've changed my list a little to be honest.... will post it up later once I get back. But like you Beanie, I now have Israel as a lost cause and Switzerland as a possible.

I've updated that table now Beanie. By the way, I have Greece as a potential top-3 - diaspora is huge and I think I'm right in saying they've been in the top three, 3 times in the last 5 years. OK, two of those years they had the pimp slot, but on all occasions, their televote has been consistently huge. I've been quite impressed with some of the X-factor auditions for their singer too. I suspect the juries will dig 'Aphrodisiac' too, as it'll have a fairly contemporary and commercial feel when performed live.

I feel like Greece is up there fighting for the SF1 win. Iceland has bad spot, which diminishes their chances drastically, hence making Greeces chance a bit better. I dont think Russia can win, since jury is likely to kill their chance of winning(?) Denmark is very solid, but there is something missing for me.. Well constructed song but a bit bleak somehow. I think its between Greece and Iceland. Greece won last year even with stereo mike, so I think they have a decent chance. Their worst finish in a semifinal is 4th, ever. So I fancy a very sure top3 for them, and likely will bet, depending on the odds obviously.

I also dont think Israel will qualify. Probably close, but not quite enough though.

Semi finals are very, very marginal when it comes down to places 8-12, and this will be no different. I'm going with my gut that Switzerland will stand out and corner a not-insignificant demographic in the middle of a lot of Eurovision cheese and fakery.

I was maybe a bit harsh on Greece, im not sure. It's certainly true that the televote is a lot more predictable/reliable than the jury vote, and as a result the songs like Russia and Greece that will rely more heavily on televote have a bit more certainty about them. I'm not convinced of top 3 though, if she is as ropey as I suspect she might be then they might not get the jury support required.

I can't shake off the Armenia 2011-feeling for Greece this year... on the other hand, what exactly is going to get the jurie's support in semi1? That's also the reason I'm hesitant to lay Albania (which I btw personally think is laughable).

I dont like to bet too much on qualifiers/non-qualifiers just yet, unless I seem to get a very good value. Since we all know, performance will be insanely important. Greece is usually rather strong, and I understand that although she is very young, Eleftheria is vocally rather strong(?) compared to cyprus' Ivi for example. Remember Slovakia's Kristina with "Horehronie" in 2010? Betting sites considered her to be sure to qualify, but she was 16th out of 17 semifinalist that year. She choked pretty bad, and was punished dearly for it. (for what its worth, I thought the song was easily good enough to qualify, but her performance was BAD) I guess I'm saying this just to remind people that studio versions of any given song doesnt mean shit. Even I would sound OK with some fine tuning. But if there are, and often there is, live versions to be heard from these singers one should listen to those performances before making any decisions on who to bet and so forth.

Agreed. I may actually be betting to much at this stage... some bets are just too tempting, though I tend to make the non-qualification bets earlier (not sure why - perhaps I'm more confident in my belief that some acts are beyong saving, than that others are beyond ruining) than the qualification bets. So far, at least 80% have been non-Q.

Regarding Slovakia though, she was considered pretty safe after the rehearsals as well, so waiting there didn't really help.

Yeah, there are bets which are too tempting to miss, and although I also think I bet too much at this point also, so far I'm happy with every bet I've made on Q or non-Q's. On every bet the odds have shortened, so I'm quite condifent I've been able to pick the ones with value Its true that Kristina was solid after rehearsal as well, but she simply bombed when it mattered. I hope Jedward bombs, it would make me a happy camper this year 8)

What are these bets Squall? Bang them on bets placed

I even thought she was pretty safe after her semi performance

You make a good point squall - ultimately every jury in this semi has to award points to ten songs. Once you take into account the complete garbage of San Marino, Montenegro, Austria etc....then each song has very little to beat in order to pick up something.

ok trying to do my usual narrowing down:

Deffo non-qualifyers:
Montenegro
Latvia
Albania
San Marino

Deffo qualifyers:
Iceland
Greece
Romania
Cyprus
Denmark
Russia
Ireland

That leaves three to come from the following:
Switzerland
Belguim
Finland
Israel
Hungary
Austria
Moldova

I know selecting cyprus might be a bit controversial but it seems to have a decent running order and early momentum. my only fear is it will suffer from greece's superiority and/or forgotten with denmark following.

I think switzerland, belguim, finland and israel are hampered by the draw, with switzerland and belguim especially vulnerable due to lack of voting allies and diaspora.

Hungary and Austria are similarly handicapped by lack of voting allies but have a better draw.

Moldova based on where they are drawn I would normally put through automatically, but I can't help thinking this is avery weak entry quality wise and will be very much forgotten after the shenanigans of the 'special needs' twins.

I'm leaning towards a win for either Ireland or Denmark for this semi. as always though i'm happy for someone to change my mind as they did last year when i was very profitably persuaded to bet on the hobbit with the guitar, in orbit a la 2001:A Space Odyssey

Ireland only finished 8th last year. I doubt they'll improve on that with a weaker song.