Semi Final 1 - 22nd May 2012

Dude, I'm deep with ireland to fail, I dont need anyone telling me they will win SF1

In all seriousness though, I honestly think (and hope) they will fail. I dont see Ireland winning. Just no way.. Same spot than last year, a lot worse song, and finished 8th last year. I think they will be somewhere between 7-13 in SF1, thus still making my not Q bet solid. I might be totally wrong here, but I honestly think they will barely qualify, or with some luck fail to qualify. Basing my estimations on last years success + taking into account the weaker song compared to pervious year. And maybe its just me, but the whole Jedward thing is a bit old. Also, I dont like anyone going twice in a row on eurovision.

yeah your right... denmark then...

also can't think why i didn't consider romania for a top 3... has to be a contender?

The Ireland issue is tricky to judge because most of the songs are worse than last year,which might just give them a chance. However I'm wondering how the juries will react to Greece and Cyprus together-can they place one country in the top 10 and not the other..if they place them both top 10 it's bad news for another country..the same thing occurs with Hungary and Switzerland,both similar songs and both no voting block..could it be that both fail to qualify..also looking at Israel and Moldova the Israeli song has the edge to me,yet looking at the effort last year with the girl on the unicycle that did qualify(how I don't know..) so I would expect a better effort this year to make it. I just wish the Russian entry would not qualify(it's sung in Udmurt language not Russian and if they want the sympathy vote they could at least sing in tune,which they don't)..as for the winner of the group I would think Iceland or Denmark.I just hope the juries spot the similarity of the Danish entry to Missing by Everything but the Girl and mark it down a bit..

On the face of it, Greece will/should be better than Cyprus. Whist both are run-of-the-mill, Greece will carry more impact with it's typical Greek sound and vibrant dancing. Cyprus have suffered financial difficulties in the build up to Baku, so it'll be interesting how much it has affected their finished product.

It's bizarre you should compare Hungary and Switzerland, Steve. I know there are guitars in both songs, but that's where the similarities end. One is an upbeat, uplifting indie-rock song. The other a dreary and moody rock-ballad. I suspect there may be a surprise in the midst, but at this point I'll pick Switzerland as the superior song.

Moldova 2011 was genius. It was the 'drinking song' - and acceptable splash of adorable craziness. This year, Moldova is tamer, but it's not a song that lines up against Israel as a comparison. The Moldovan lead has charisma, whereas Israels singer looks great on stage, but not smothered over your 50" plasma. On that basis, I doubt Israel will qualify. Furthermore, Moldova has much more support.

It's difficult when the song is reworked,as has happened with Greece and Albania,to know which version will be entered for the competition. In my mind Greece and Cyprus are very similar and I'm wondering how the juries could justify a wide discrepancy in their marks. I was considering Hungary and Switzerland as boy bands,and to my mind Hungary's lead singer has the edge. As for Moldova 2011,sorry it was rubbish,as was Estonia's which until very late on was favourite in the betting,yet ended second to last..

how dare you diss moldova's crackajack entry - it was the wife's favourite, and made me money...

on estonia as well... well actualy i agree with you there ... it was

Moldova was fantastic last year,done to perfection.The hats alone nailed everyone.Superb.
Cyprus will be blown away by Greece and will take the jury votes,where Cyprus will get very few,,why?First the Greek girl is a very decent singer.2nd the stage show will suit the song.The talk is they are going for an Aphrodite theme,statue,dress or both with the dance going on.That will really lift the song to full on Greek and that matters..Plus it should tie together really well,and will blow Cyprus away to where it belongs,and that isnt the final,because its pants all around and has nothing going for it apart from a fanwalk.

I really don't get most of these joke entries,including Russia this year..maybe I don't have a sense of humour after all..as long as people do enjoy them that's fine,but don't just go with the flow because everyone else seems to like it..I'm still remembering Estonia last year,which whilst maybe it was harsh of me to say it was rubbish did not deserve favourite-in-the-betting status,neither did Jedward which at one point was co-favourite. I can't for the life of me think why Israel's entry this year is being talked down..surely this is one of those joke entries and it's one I actually do like,yet has been written off by all and sundry..maybe I will get the plot one of these days..

Israel's song is decent Steve, it's just down to charisma, running order and 'is it really Eurovision?'

A pre-dress rehearsal ranking- spots 14-8 could still change about significantly. The only further bet I’m taking at the moment is Israel not to qualify at 1.91 with BetVictor.

Not going into much depth here...

18th – San Marino – last

17th – Montenegro – No money, no mates, no chance. Not even the monetary break dance can save this one.

16th – Austria – Not qualifying – lowish in the televote, even lower in the jury vote.

15th – Israel – Not qualifying – it goes in the books as a ‘zany’ entry, but typically they need to be zanier than this in order to engage the televoters and offset the loss of jury points.

14th – Switzerland – middle of the road, middle of the draw, and something tells me that after Romania this one will be overlooked by televoters and juries in equal measure. Not qualifying, even though I think it deserves to.

13th – Hungary – it’s in the Swiss bracket – a little too middle of the road to make much of a televoting impact. Will the juries rescue it? I’m thinking perhaps not, but it’s marginal. Ahead of the Swiss on draw alone.

12th – Albania – It’s marginal, but not qualifying IMO. I think the jury-friendly aspect of this song is over-played, and amongst televoters it’s pretty forgettable. I don’t think I could hum the tune after ten listens.

11th – Finland – strikes me as too traditional to qualify – I don’t think it will receive the jury support required and it’s not accessible enough for televoters.

10th – Latvia – I’m not counting this out – the vocal performance is strong enough to merit some jury votes, and the melody annoying enough to persist in voters brains for the hour until the lines open.

9th – Belgium – a potentially solid jury score in store – it looks like a Austria 2011-lite and the jury support for that was enough to see it through from spot 2. This isn’t quite as well presented, but it’s accessible for viewers in it’s cheesiness and simple melodies. Sneaking through due to juries balancing things up for the less fancied countries

8th – Greece – In danger – it’s going to be largely ignored by the juries, and comes so early that it may suffer a similar fate amongst the neutral televoters. Down to the diaspora to rescue it.

7th – Ireland – the draw gives this one a Get Out Of Jail Free card, otherwise it might be in danger. As it is the two have just enough energy to paper over the dodgy vocals, and it should look good on screen.

6th – Cyprus – not completely convinced by this entry and I can’t see the juries going for it, but it already has an existing fanbase and coming after SM is enough to have this one back for Saturday night.

5th – Moldova – good draw with a well sung and enjoyable song = qualification. Despite their best efforts to sabotage it with that choreography.

4th – Russia – for me it’s not the contender that the market makes it out to be. Ultimately it’s a novelty entry and while it sounds like they will use their biggest vote winner(the wee granny) as much as possible it doesn’t strike me as one that will dominate the televote in this semi.

3rd – Iceland – Jonsi isn’t sounding at his best this week, but otherwise this ticks enough eurovision boxes to have it sailing through with some to spare.

2nd – Romania – a televoter magnet and given the good vocals may well threaten the top 3 amongst the juries too. Through at a canter.

1st – Denmark – Perfect contrast to Cyprus before it, and the faultless vocal/instrument on stage could well have this winning the jury vote.

I kinda agree with this list. I do disagree about a few things.Denmark, I dont believe it's gonna gather all the jury votes. I also dont see them doing super well in televote. I dont think Denmark is top3 in this semi. Denmark is kinda good, but something is lacking. It's super boring to me. Almost certain it wont do well with televoting. reasonably well with jury but not awesome.

I also think Belgium has no chance this year, but I might be totally off, this is a hard one :S

Tonight's the night at 8pm on BBC3..a Euro-wide cultural celebration of low-grade pop..

Oh wow-action at last.

Have you got any money on these semis,Steve-or can someone give me some bets I should do so I have an interest?

I totally agree with Steve about the Russian entry-I will be betting against it in the final

Oh,just looked on odds comparison and only betfair and Red32 are betting on it!?

I don't disagree too much with Beanie's analysis above,though I don't have Belgium qualifying and I think the Albanian woman might throw a surprise.

The ten qualifiers are Romania,Moldova,Iceland,Hungary,Denmark,Albania,Cyprus,Greece,Russia and Ireland.
Non-qualifiers are Montenegro,Latvia,Switzerland,Belgium,Finland,Israel,San Marino,and Austria.
Few surprises really..the Hungarian lead singer Walkó put in a good performance aided by a blonde backing singer.Similarly Albania's Rona Nishliu sang from the heart and earned her place. Israel's song suffered from no human chemistry whatsoever on stage.Those countries which didn't qualify had the weaker songs coupled with no voting diaspora,or to put another way,those countries which have nobody to rely on like Ireland had to ensure they sent a decent song.