2012 Six Nations Rugby Union

Opening w/e handicaps seem a bit too damn spot-on for my liking.

A stab at revamped England overcoming the -3 might be worth a go. Will they click? Will Farrell slot them over on his first white shirt outing?

Usually like to pile in on the first w/e before the camel coats start getting their handicap calibrations tuned up, but there's a lot of unknowns swirling around the place this Sat/Sun. Including weather.

France by 22
Ireland by 3
England by 5

maybe!

I'll just go with

5pts Malzieu (France) first scorer @ 9-1

and otherwise hold a cowardly watching brief.

None of the above tells us what your thoughts are on the probably outcome of the Ireland Wales game Traeth. Whadayareckon?

I'm sure the 1/2 couldn't be considered value on Ireland but who do you think will win?

I've heard a lot of rugby people saying that this is one of the most difficult six nations to predict due to all the changes and so many unknown factors. lLooks like you concur with that view.

A win for England, but hardly a bold new dawn.

On today's games, I have Italy as 2pt favourites next week in Rome

All the Irish previews I have read on the net and the papers, have given a verdict for an Irish win. They are a bit Cock-a-Hoop to be honest and I am surprised, Wales beat them and beat them well in the RWC, they are saying that the Welsh pack are missing 4 key players Gethin Jenkins, Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris & Dan Lydiate and Ireland will take adavantage of this, etc, etc. The same media said the big players Ireland had were too old when the lost to Wales in the RWC! These players are still in the team and they did not get any younger in the past 6 months! Brian O'Driscoll although one of these 'older' players, absence is a big loss for Ireland.
I think what the Irish media are saying is horse shit, Wales will be winning this one.

A sample of the horse shit I speak about is as follows......

Ireland have steered clear of the 'r' word in the build to the RBS 6 Nations opener against Wales on Sunday, but the chance to atone for the Rugby World Cup defeat will surely be a spur for much of the starting XV.

Kidney has made one critical change: demoting Ronan O'Gara to the bench after he found his game largely nullified by Wales when they lost in New Zealand.

It may prove important.

Ireland's dreadful kicking is a forgotten aspect of the last meeting but Wales guarded the touchlines to counter the Munster man and the failure of his efforts to ping the corners undoubtedly knocked Ireland's confidence at key moments.

Fergus McFadden starts at 13, with Brian O'Driscoll ruled out and Keith Earls forced to withdraw late due to personal reasons, but even with he and Sexton in the team, there are plenty of similarities between the last match and this one.

The importance of the collisions is one.

Jamie Roberts shuddering smash into Donncha O'Callaghan set the tone for what followed with barely two minutes gone in Wellington. Wales will be aiming to dominate the early contact situations again, as Ireland are light in places, particularly in the centres.

Gordon D'Arcy is not a particularly impactful tackler and while Earls' defensive lapses have attracted more attention, McFadden has also had occasional slips in the green jersey.

Across the three-quarters, Warren Gatland has gone for power and size with Roberts, Jon Davies, George North and Alex Cuthbert all extremely physically imposing and direct players.

There is not much fancy about the Wales backline elsewhere either - Leigh Halfpenny's polished and assured style favoured ahead of the swashbuckling James Hook.

At out-half, Rhys Priestland also goes about his business with a minimum of fuss, with impressive long passing and excellent kicking his standout attributes.

Mike Phillips is the exception - combining excellent basics with occasional flamboyant bursts, he combines a break, a slick pass and a great kicking game.

The width Priestland affords through his passing has been key to their success of late, giving Wales the scope to choose the point of contact and dictate the tackle situation.

His kicking means no defence can afford to ignore the touchlines, while Phillips must be watched as Ireland have found to their cost in the last two games.

The final ingredient is a backline-friendly back-row. In attack, openside Sam Warburton guarantees quick ball off first phase, while number eight Toby Faletau follows the ball closely and can make plays quickly when gaps appear in the open field.

Wales undoubtedly pose a thorny problem for any defensive coach.

It is up front and around the fringes that Ireland should have a clear edge.

The scrum battle did not end up being important at the World Cup but it may swing Ireland's way on home soil. Adam Jones starts at tighthead but with Wales missing Gethin Jenkins, Mike Ross and Cian Healy will expect to deliver pressure at the least, and ideally a few penalties will come their way.

The Irish lineout also looks superior - Wales are short a couple of top class operators with Dan Lydiate and Alun-Wyn Jones unavailable - where Ireland have three excellent jumpers in the two locks and Jamie Heaslip.

If Wales do come under pressure in the set-pieces, the impact of their backline will be minimised.

Ireland also have a superb set of carriers in the pack. Sean O'Brien, Stephen Ferris and Cian Healy each pose a major problem for any tackler, while Heaslip looks capable of hitting wider channels with intent again, sooner rather than later. Rory Best and O'Connell also get through plenty of work with ball in hand.

If Ireland can soften Wales up in the forwards, it may well create space and momentum for the backs - and that can bring Ireland's superior footwork into play in the centres. Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe are top class finishers on the wings, and Rob Kearney has shown a hugely improved ability to use his arrival into the line to convert chances into tries.

The factor which may decide the match is the performance of Conor Murray at scrum-half. If he can keep the tempo up over a couple of phases and release Ireland's main carriers fluently and consistently, having the edge at the set piece could well do the rest.

Sexton's own footwork, speed and short passing should also help Ireland get their runners going forward at the Welsh defensive line.

If the old truism that forwards decide who wins matches and backs by how much holds, Ireland should have enough to get off to a winning start.

Prediction: Ireland 22-10 Wales

Ireland v Wales, RBS 6 Nations, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Sunday 4 February, kick-off 3pm:

Ireland: R Kearney (Leinster); T Bowe (Ospreys), F McFadden (Leinster), G D'Arcy (Leinster), A Trimble (Ulster); J Sexton (Leinster), C Murray (Munster); C Healy (Leinster), R Best (Ulster), M Ross (Leinster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster, capt), S Ferris (Ulster), S O'Brien (Leinster), J Heaslip (Leinster).

Replacements: S Cronin (Leinster), T Court (Ulster), D Ryan (Munster), P O'Mahony (Munster), E Reddan (Leinster), R O'Gara (Munster), D Kearney (Leinster).

Wales: L Halfpenny (Cardiff); A Cuthbert (Cardiff), J Davies (Scarlets), J Roberts (Cardiff), G North (Scarlets); R Priestland (Scarlets), M Phillips (Bayonne); R Gill (Saracens), H Bennett (Ospreys), A Jones (Ospreys), B Davies (Cardiff), I Evans (Ospreys), R Jones (Ospreys), S Warburton (Cardiff, capt), T Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).

Replacements: K Owens (Scarlets), P James (Ospreys), A Powell (Sale), J Tipuric (Ospreys), L Williams (Cardiff), J Hook (Perpignan), S Williams (Scarlets)

Best of luck Traeth and actually there was alot worse than that in the Irish papers, they are getting totally carried away. I did read one article that made me think of how you Welsh don't value the Heineken Cup! here is what part of that article said...

"Since the World Cup quarter-final, aside from Wales losing three matches while Ireland have been inactive, the provinces have provided three Heineken Cup quarter-finalists to one. Hence there’s no doubt the Irish players came together in better shape, physically and mentally.

Dan Lydiate was obliged to play for the Dragons in a dead Challenge Cup rubber against Cavalieri Prato, which they won 45-16. An accident waiting to happen duly happened and Lydiate joined the other Wellington workhorse Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyne Jones and Gethin Jenkins on the injured list.

Wales thus have six changes from the team which lost in Shane Williams’s farewell against Australia in early December and five alterations from the Wellington line-up. Ireland have only three changes in personnel, though admittedly number 13 is some jersey to fill.

However, we should be wary of taking Heineken Cup form as a true barometer, for Wales out-performed Ireland (and all their Euro rivals) despite not providing one quarter-finalist in last season’s Heineken Cup, nor one finalist since 1996 in a competition Irish teams have won four times in the last six years.

Aside from the step up to Test rugby’s more elevated air, perhaps the Heineken Cup is both a strength and a weakness for the Irish team, and vice versa for the Welsh. As with the supporters, provincial ties matter more Irish players, whereas the emotional ties in Wales remain altogether closer to the national jersey than to their regions."

Good luck, Traeth! I'm Welsh by background and punting inclination but just can't (quite) see a Welsh win (ko in 10 mins). Irish line-out edge is the worry.

Ireland by 3.

Cap too close to that for me to get involved.

Italy had France on the back foot in the first half, 28 mins in Frog territory. Agree with +4 HT above, and wd suggest Italy/England HT/FT is not a bad go @ 5-1.

traeth said "A France straight win is available @ 1.31 with betfair , looks a good bet to me "

Yes that does look good, France will beat Ireland without a doubt. Never mind Pie if Italy had them on the back foot, there is always one big game in the Italians every season, thats the first game, Ireland have played them first so many times I know, and I have seen how well they play, then the following week that big show from the Italians fizzles out.