BBC Sports Personality Of The Year 2012

How can you possibly choose between Mo and Bradley this year? I think they should declare them both joint winners and have a general recap of the sporting year as they customarily do.

The odds as they currently are over at William Hill:

Bradley Wiggins 4/7
Mo Farah 2/1
Jessica Ennis 6/1
Andy Murray 16/1
Chris Hoy 33/1
Ben Ainslie 100/1
Alastair Brownlee 100/1
Charlotte Dujardin 100/1
Jason Kenny 100/1
Rory McIlroy 100/1
Victoria Pendleton 100/1
Greg Rutherford 100/1
Laura Trott 100/1

'Total Women on Top 10 Shortlist' (odds from William Hill):

None 100/1
One 25/1
Two 6/1
Three 4/6
Four 2/1
Five 12/1
Six or more 66/1

Jessica Ennis and Charlotte Dujardin would be 'definites' on my shortlist of ten. A female Paralympian would be handy or it could be one of Nicola Adams, Victoria Pendleton and/or Laura Trott.

It won't be more than four women on the list considering Ainslie, Farah, Hoy, McIlroy, Murray and Wiggins will be on there. If any of those six fellas are 'under threat' it could amazingly be Ben Ainslie, Rory McIlroy and Andy Murray but I'd be surprised if those three missed out.

Ellie Simmonds as low as 16/1 with Ladbrokes and David Weir is in the mix as well. There's a few other Paralympians who have won three or more gold medals as well.

They'll be in the mix but a win is surely out of the question.

The final ten will be a messy list.

My hype rankings right now:

1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Mo Farah
3. Ellie Simmonds
4. Jessica Ennis
5. Chris Hoy
6. Andy Murray
7. Ben Ainslie
8. David Weir
9. Rory McIlroy
10. Charlotte Dujardin

The good will towards Ellie Simmonds is incredible right now but can it last all the way to December!? She may even get a surprise third place.

The hype for Jessica Ennis seems ominous to be fading. Charlotte Dujardin's place is the shakiest as there's a Paralympian who has three gold medals in the equestrian events but the emphasis on the Paralympics will likely be on just Ellie Simmonds and David Weir.

Andy Murray if he gets to the US Open final will likely get a top five placing but if he somehow wins then this could become a three man race between Bradley Wiggins, Mo Farah and himself.

Yesterday afternoon's Bettingzone Market News:

1315: David Weir won his fourth gold medal of the Olympics and William Hill have cut his odds to win Sports Personality from 25/1 to 16/1.

Fellow Paralympians Ellie Simmonds, Jonnie Peacock and Sarah Storey all feature towards the top of the SPOTY betting.
The firm are hugely odds on at 1/33 that any Paralympian makes it into the top 10 of Sports Personality and 8/1 that any Paralympian wins the big prize.

"When the Olympics finished, we as a British public thought that it could not be beaten, but along come the Paralympic athletes and made us think twice about that," said spokesman Joe Crilly.

"It would not be at all surprising to see one of our Paralympic heroes being named Sports Personality of the Year."

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David Weir and Ellie Simmonds are almost assured places. Sarah Storey will surely feature ahead of Laura Trott and Victoria Pendleton if they include a third cyclist. There'll probably be a limit of three cyclists.

Two things can probably scupper Bradley Wiggins:

1. He will likely win next year's Tour de France and in the likelihood that there'll be a dearth of British sporting achievement in 2013, he'll be the default winner. To have Bradley Wiggins win SPotY twice in a row would be a bit odd but hey, it is a 'public vote'
2. The BBC. Who do they want to win?

I had forgotten about Contador. Is Team Sky giving Froome a chance?

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market News:

1320: As celebrations go on in London, William Hill are odds on at 8/11 that the whole shortlist for the 2012 BBC Sports Personality Of The Year is made up of Olympic or Paralympic athletes.

David Weir is the biggest mover of the last few days having been cut all the way in from 100/1 to 16/1 but he faces stiff competition from the likes of Bradley Wiggins and Mo Farah, who continue to dominate the betting across the board.

"You can make a case for thirty plus Olympians and Paralympians and we believe that currently only Rory Mcllroy can stop a clean sweep by Team GB," said William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams.

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Rory McIlroy or any other non-Olympian/Paralympian to appear on the list is 'evens'. Will they keep the golf fans sweet with a token nomination for Rory?

Any Paralympian to win BBC SPotY is 8/1.

The immediate reaction from the oddsmakers is that Andy Murray jumps to second/third favourite.

I didn't know Ladbrokes had already paid out on Bradley Wiggins as soon as he won his gold medal. This is usually a Betfred (particularly if it involves Manchester United) or Paddy Power type of move.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/armchair-pundit/sports-personality-contenders-095314231.html

Wiggians - ToF + Olympics
Murray - Grand Slam + Olympics
Hoy - Shitload of Medals

Its going to be one of those, I don't think anyone else has a look in tbh

I think they should share the prize this year due to the London Olympics and not award a single honour. Of course they won't because the BBC makes too much money out of the telephone calls. My tip for what it's worth would be Bradley Wiggins as he showed up the French on their own turf.

To be honest I don't think Olympics alone is enough, your probably right about Hoy too. Will probably back Wiggins and Murray, if one of them don't win it I'll eat my hat

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1255: There has been more money for Bradley Wiggins to win the BBC Sports Personality of the Year award today and all the odds-against quotes have mow gone.

Ladbrokes, in from 11/10 to 10/11, are just one firm to move their price. Blue Square and Stan James are now left offering a best of evens with most layers going odds-on about the Tour de France winner and Olympic time-trial gold medallist.

Another Olympic champion Andy Murray, who added the US Open to his CV on Monday, is next best at 3/1, with Mo Farah 4/1 on best price.

Ladbrokes feel one of those three will win the gong. Indeed, they offer just 4/7 that the trio make up the top three.
The firm's Jessica Bridge said: "We're pleased to see Wiggins back to odds-on as it eases our double pay out headache. As far as we're concerned the top three of Wiggins, Murray and Farah is a done deal."

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Also, odds on 'Betting without Bradley Wiggins':

Andy Murray 'evens'
Mo Farah 11/8
Jessica Ennis 7/1
David Weir 12/1
Ellie Simmonds 33/1
Rory McIlroy 33/1
Chris Hoy 50/1
Sarah Storey 66/1
Rebecca Adlington 100/1
Ben Ainslie 100/1
Victoria Pendleton 100/1
Chris Froome 100/1
Lewis Hamilton 100/1
Alistair Brownlee 100/1
Beth Tweddle 100/1
Tom Daley 100/1
Laura Trott 100/1

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1145: Coral make Tour De France and Olympic time trial winner, Bradley Wiggins, their 8/13 favourite to win the BBC Sports Personality Award, after it was announced that the final night shortlist will now consist of twelve, two more than in previous years.

Olympic champion and US Open winner, Andy Murray, is the 10/3 second favourite to win, with London’s athletic stars, Mo Farah and Jessica Ennis, next in the betting at 9/2 and 12/1.

Wiggins is 1/10 with Coral to make the top three, while a female winner is 8/1 and a paralympian success is 16/1.

“In an exceptional year of British success, it is only fair that the short list is extended to accommodate as many of our hero’s as possible,” said Coral spokesman Gary Burton. “And though Wiggins is a short priced favourite to win and the choice of many, it will be interesting to see if the latest cycling scandal will affect the way the public vote.”

How much will this affect Bradley Wiggins?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/20073400