1. Hi and welcome to Betnod. If you would like to view the forum without adverts then please register.

Champions League Betting 13th-14th September

Discussion in 'Champions League and Europa League betting' started by HastGill1, Sep 8, 2011.

  1. HastGill1

    HastGill1 Member

    Messages:
    51
    FC Porto v Shakhtar

    Have to be looking at the goal market in this one, Porto have lost Boas obviously and also Falcao who was a decent goal threat but new coach Pereira knows the philosophy of the club having been involved with them for 25 years and I can't see them closing ranks and playing defensive particularly at home. Shakhtar are going to be running the same formation and tactics we have come used to from them, tight Eastern European defence and skilful, attacking Brazilians all through midfield and attack.

    Porto have started the season strongly, youngster Kleber arrived and was set the task of replacing Falcao which is obviously not easy, he will have gained confidence from last time out against Uniao Leiria where he got a brace, Porto have always replaced top players successfully in the past and have an excellent scouting network in South America so we will trust their decisions when it comes to replacing Falcao. Much of the rest of the team is as you were last season, Hulk is the talisman of the side with most of the play coming through him, from an attacking viewpoint he is definitely their best player. Defensively they leave gaps, there is no doubt about that. Their defensive record is pretty good at home but mainly because teams (particularly domestic) go there and sit back, trying to soak up pressure which they usually fail to do because they can't cope with the speed of the passing and movement, even against Barca the other week they showed this and were probably a bit unlucky to go in down, at half time. They tend to play a pretty high defensive line, I don't know if they will change this against a side with more attacking ability like Shakhtar but I still think they can definitely be got at on the break. Been rotating the starting line-up a fair bit so far so it will be interesting to see what Pereira classes as the strongest side available.

    Mahno knows more about Shakhtar than me, but I would regard them as comparable in level to Porto if not quite as strong, but their record in the CL recently has to be respected and will go to Portugal in confident mood I'm sure after a decent start to the domestic campaign 6-2-0, this will certainly be their toughest match to date though. Both sides are used to having the majority of the possession in their domestic league but the Ukrainian league is certainly more level than the Portuguese is currently, it will be interesting to see how Shakhtar cope as a defensive unit as they are likely to spend fair chunks of the game defending, but with that as I said previously they have great capacity to hit Porto on the break and will certainly fancy their chances of scoring. Fernandinho, Willan, Jadson, Luis Adriano are all good attacking players that can cause Porto problems. From a formation viewpoint I imagine Hubschman will be playing in defensive midfield position and how well he deals with the movement of the Porto front three may well dictate how successful Shakhtar are, he will certainly be the most defensive minded of the midfield, ahead of him the formation is fairly fluid and interchangeable.

    Possible Line ups;

    FC Porto: Helton - Fucile, Rolando, Sapunaru, Otamendi - Souza, João Moutinho, Belluschi/Guarin - Varela, Hulk, Kléber

    Shakhtar: Rybka - Srna, Kucher, Rakytskyy, Shevchuk - Hübschman, Fernandinho, Jadson, Willian, Costa - Adriano

    All bets are currently provisional as I'm waiting to see if there are any important injuries etc. in the weekend games that may alter my thinking.

    Both Teams to Score - 1.9 - William Hill - 4 Points
    Goal Line over 2.5 - 1.92 - Bet365 - 4 Points

    Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal

    This is another match that, on paper at least, looks an absolute cracker and probably the best of the round. Borussia are a young exciting side full of good attacking players, obviously won the league last season and will be expecting a good start against an Arsenal side who are at their weakest point in a fair few years. Borussia have started the season pretty well, 2-1-1, drawing away with last years runners up Leverkusen 0-0 last week in a game they had a goal disallowed and key man Gotze sent off. They line up in a now familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, Barrios is still out injured and that is a big blow as he was looking like becoming a world-class player last season, Lewandowski is a decent replacement though and they have danger throughout the attacking midfielders Götze, Kagawa and Großkreutz, particularly Götze who should be a star performer. Dortmund are also very strong at home, unbeaten in 20 odd games winning both their league games there this season.

    Arsenal have done huge (by their standards) business in the transfer market, it did all come across as a bit rushed though and we will have to wait to see how the new signings are incorporated. Arsenal will be missing two of their best players in Vermaelen and Wilshire but they do have a very strong squad and decent replacements, I think playing Santos in this game would be the wrong move, saw in a couple of matches I watched him in Turkey last season and he wasn't too good at tracking back when he went forward, in fact he didn't look too keen on defending at all, against a side with the attacking capabilities of Dortmund that could well be a problem, Gibbs will probably start I think. Midfield looks strong, Arteta will take on the Fabregas role and with Wilshire out Ramsey will carry on in midfield, Walcott, Gervinho and Van Persie make for a strong looking front three. Reports of Arsenals demise in the media are somewhat premature for me, they got tonked at Old Trafford but they set up in a suicidal way with inferior players to what they would normally have, this team already looks far stronger. Ramsey and Van Persie both looked strong on international duty and if Mertesacker can come in and give some stability and leadership at the back they will be in better stead. The defence still looks venerable though and I don't think a clean sheet is likely.

    Think this is another game with goals in it, Arsenal are not a defensive side and it isn't a game Wenger will feel is beyond them. Dortmund are untested against the best sides in Europe and didn't impress in the Europa League last year, the atmosphere should be great and with the attacking mentality of both sides I think over 3.0 goals is a good option again at a decent price. Dortmund's strength at home puts me off backing Arsenal on a +0.5AH, but I can see both sides scoring and having a real go as both will see it as a winnable game.

    Possible Line Ups;

    Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller - Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer - S. Bender, Gündogan - Götze, Kagawa, Großkreutz - Lewandowski

    Arsenal: Szczesny - Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs - Song, Ramsey, Arteta - Walcott, Gervinho - Van Persie

    Both Teams to Score - 1.72 - Bet365 - 5 Points
    Goal Line Over 2.5 - 2.02 - Bet365 - 5 Points
    Goal Line Over 3.0 - 2.8 - Pinnacle - 4 Points
    Punter likes this.
  2. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,578
    Nice write up Hasty, I'll post up the rest of the fixtures..

    Tuesday 13th September 2011
    19:45 APOEL FC 9/4 Draw 23/10 Zenit 6/5
    19:45 Barcelona 2/7 Draw 9/2 AC Milan 9/1
    19:45 Chelsea 2/5 Draw 7/2 Bayer Leverkusen 7/1
    19:45 Dortmund 11/10 Draw 23/10 Arsenal 5/2
    19:45 Genk 4/1 Draw 11/4 Valencia 2/3
    19:45 Olympiacos 6/4 Draw 23/10 Marseille 7/4
    19:45 Plzen evens Draw 23/10 BATE Borisov 11/4
    19:45 Porto 8/13 Draw 11/4 Shakhtar Donetsk 9/2

    Wednesday 14th September 2011
    19:45 Ajax 11/8 Draw 12/5 Lyon 15/8
    19:45 Benfica 3/1 Draw 11/4 Man. Utd 5/6
    19:45 Dinamo Zagreb 12/1 Draw 9/2 Real Madrid 1/4
    19:45 FC Basel 4/7 Draw 11/4 Otelul Galati 5/1
    19:45 Inter Milan 4/11 Draw 7/2 Trabzonspor 15/2
    19:45 Lille evens Draw 23/10 CSKA Moscow 11/4
    19:45 Man. City 4/11 Draw 7/2 Napoli 8/1
    19:45 Villarreal 11/5 Draw 12/5 Bayern Munich 6/5

    Odds Skybet
  3. Pete89

    Pete89 Active Member

    Messages:
    518
    I really think Barca look like a lay at that price but I don't really bet Champions League ect. I'd probably lay Man U at odds on too.
  4. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

    Messages:
    10,753
    Best bet is Zenit to win at Apoel @ 2.25 [Totesport]

    Led but lost 2-1:cry
  5. suirthing

    suirthing Member

    Messages:
    203
    Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal. The German Champions against an depleted Arsenal who look the weakest they have been in a long time. Trashed by United and scraped past Swansea thanks to a gift from the Swansea keeper. Werner in the stands, Wiltshire & Ramsey out injured. With Borussia at home to boot, I will have a good slice of the Borussia win 11/10 Gen.

    The following accum for me -
    Zenit St Petersburg 6/5
    Borussia Dortmund 11/10
    Barcelona 2/7
    Chelsea/B Leverkusen, Draw 7/2
  6. Miss Marple

    Miss Marple New Member

    Messages:
    13
    Is there anything more dispiriting in life than to be outshone by a sibling? To spend one’s formative years in the shadow of a more talented brother or sister - who then goes on to achieve greatness in whatever field they choose - can crush even the strongest of spirits. I recall the sad case of Paul Cartwright, the blacksmith’s son in my little village of St Mary Mead, who toiled long hours at the forge whilst his elder brother Fabian studied law at the great colleges of Oxford. As is often the way in such matters, the family took great pride in the older sibling’s academic achievements, whilst taking the more practical efforts of his younger brother for granted. When finally young Paul’s spirit broke, he was found by the village librarian one cold November morning - dangling from a makeshift noose next to the law section. Of course, the real tragedy was that he couldn’t actually read.

    One would imagine that sibling rivalry burns no less intensely within the Cannavaro household. Whilst Fabio held aloft the World Cup and earned handfuls of international caps, young Paolo learned his craft amongst the lesser lights of Italian football, contenting himself with a solitary Super Coppa medal. And yet, tomorrow night – with his brother’s retirement not 2 months past – it will be Paolo’s turn to step into the limelight at a curiously named football stadium in east Manchester.

    Alas, one fears that the spotlight’s glare may be a harsh one for the lesser talented Cannavaro. Alongside Hugo Campagnaro, he forms an adequate but not outstanding last line of defence for an adequate but not outstanding Napoli team. Faced by the financial might and newfound attacking ambition of Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City, one fears for the fate of poor Paolo as he toils away at his own personal forge, no doubt fearing the comparisons that may or may not be made with his familial nemesis once the dust has settled.

    And so - whilst profiting from another’s misfortune is never to be admired or indeed encouraged - one nevertheless feels compelled to point others in the direction of Paddy Power’s 11/10 for a Manchester City triumph (-1.5 goal Asian Handicap).
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,540
    Brilliant:zhail
    Punter likes this.
  8. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

    Messages:
    10,753
    Benfica v Man Utd

    Over 2.5 Goals @ 2 [Skybet]

    2 goals:banghead
  9. Yorkieacer

    Yorkieacer BEST GAMBLER IN WORLD

    Messages:
    2,257
    ~Had two winners tonight which i posted on tdp but wont count them on here :lookaround

    Lille look a good price tomorrow after keeping hold of Hazard etc and making a decent start to the season 3 wins in a row now, cska been a bit touch and go lately including losing 4-0 at the weekend.
  10. HastGill1

    HastGill1 Member

    Messages:
    51

    Yep fair play, thats pretty good :lol..​
  11. Pete89

    Pete89 Active Member

    Messages:
    518
    Barca fail to win as predicted and I'm left gutted that I couldn't get online to lay them....
  12. MickeyPaul

    MickeyPaul Merry Christmas!

    Messages:
    1,237
    Nice shout Pete and unfortunate you couldn't take advantage.
  13. HastGill1

    HastGill1 Member

    Messages:
    51
    Without trying to sound like the twat who backed them at short odds (which I am!), Milan were durge for 90% of the game and deserved to lose, they drew with a goal after 32 seconds and a goal after 93 minutes..I'd bet if that game were played another 10 times Barca would win 8 of them.
  14. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,791
    I've had a wee dabble tonight and here are my views

    Basel v otelui galati. Home win. Basel over the last couple of years have shown they can play football and although they arent up along with the top dogs they should be too strong for a team i've never heard of befire. Cjuj thumped them 4-0 at the weekend and theyve started this season poorly. Home win.

    Man city v Napoli. I watched Napoli win on Sat night and in spells they played nice football but considering the way Man City have started the season i csn only see home win here.


    Inter also should be too strong for Trabzonspor. They threw away their league game on Sun night down to poor defending. They even brought sneijder off the bench but still failed. That would have been a big enough kick up the rectum for them not to take this game lightly.
  15. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,791
    Benfica v Man Ure is a game that i've talked myself into backing. Originally i was no bet but have decided to back Man U. They usually just do enough in the group stages away from home and with the game v Chelsea on sunday i think again just doing enough to not get beat tonight is probably the best call but going on past performances this year i csnt see many teams living with them.

    I ve also backed Lille to beat CSKA after reading theyve list their main keeper.

    Basel/Inter/Man City treble
    Lille & Man U singles
    Man City and Rubin Kazan (europa league tomorrow) DOUBLE

    :hope
  16. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,028
    sorry to tell you keg I've got similar bets to you ,

    Man U single
    Real/Inter/Man City treble
    Rubin Kazan/Atletico double

    sorry about that I hope I havn't jinxed you
  17. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,791
    Is it Arsenal i'm watching or Man City ???

    Fucking SHOOT ya useless bunch of fucks.

    Nice football in spells but no end product.
  18. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,578
    Could have been a lot worse Keggers, after they scored I was happy to settle for a point.
    With City not taking their chances It was always on the cards Napoli were gonna pinch a goal and win this on the, I was going to say 'on the counter' but I thought Napoli were better than that and looked to take the game to City after gaining confidence from hitting the bar.

    I thought it was a decent game and one City should learn a lot from.
  19. Pete89

    Pete89 Active Member

    Messages:
    518
    After last nights disappointment I'm pleased to say my money was down tonight as some consolation.

Share This Page