Champions League Betting 18-19th September

Man City are MAAAAASSSSSIVE at that price away to RM. 13/5 Draw no bet or (as the draw is probably more likely than the away win) you can back the City win and the draw to skew a better profit on the draw.

RM are just not playing for the manager. They are lying mid table in La Liga having won just one of their first four games. Moral is low and Ronaldo is spitting his dummy out as usual. My only fear is that Mancini might be too much of a pussy to attempt to win the game. He will see a point as a good result (and who can blame him based on last year's piss poor performance in Europe).

I think the draw is definitely the most likely result and it's 3/1.

I also think the draw is the most likely at Celtic. Yes they are shit and are somehow managing to lose a one-horse race in the domestic league but their home record in Europe cannot be ignored. They aren't good enough to win but they may be capable of securing a point.

Only thing putting me of Man City is the whole Ronaldo situation. Apparently he wants to be paid what he thinks he is worth and Real aren't prepared to/ can't afford to do so at the moment. The only club in Europe I can think of who could afford to pay him what he thinks he is worth are of course Man City so he could show up and put in a performance. If he does we could see a repeat of the performance we saw from Real against Barcelona for the first 35 mins.

That's a great point Colbro. Big stage and all that.

They may not be one of the European giants but I reckon if you'd backed every favourite against Cluj in Europe since they started playing in the CL/EL you'd be selling The Big Issue by now. It may well be something to do with the fact that their season starts well before the big boys and gives them a chance to be into their stride by the time these games come around.

I'm normally a fan of Braga but they've only won one of their three games so far (granted that was at home) but I think Cluj +1 on the Asian Handicap at around evens is a good bet. I'll certainly try to catch a bit of the game with a view to possibly backing them on the AH in future games as they are consistenly underpriced due to the fact that they don't have the European pedigree of others.

Mind Real don't defend set pieces very well and often don't put defenders on the posts on corners

Make your fucking mind up man

Ok - decision made - I'm backing Zenit st Petersburg at 3.1 on betfair against Malaga (big spenders v big sellers etc)

might be wise to watch the first few mins of the Real/City game in order to see which Ronaldo turns up.

The only danger with that is, City start well, Ronaldo/RM start badly, the price dips. The 5/1 is gone already. There are only a couple offering 9/2 still. Now is the time to get on or you could be looking at 3/1 ten minutes into the game.

hmmm,I dont like betting on the champs lge matches too much as I find it difficult to assess teams from different leagues(Im not a ratings follower) so I dont have enough experience to gainsay that........however......

I would be genuinely shocked if Citys price hits less than 4-1 10 mins into the game if its still 0-0...no matter how theyre playing

er,unless Ronaldo goes up to his manager and shows him his bare arse,that is.....

which,coincidentally enough,would also shock me

You may be right. Unless they score of course

I have to say Im really surprised by the apparently unanimous verdict on this game!

People keep saying that the odds are wrong.

Hey,I aint gonna stick my neck out and disagree with so many people on a game I find hard to assess.

Instead I would like to ask:

When you say the odds are wrong,I am pretty sure they are based on the stats for say the last 40 games or so.

What number of games are you basing your odds on?

Do you always calculate odds on that number of games?If not why now?

What SHOULD the odds be?


Having got that out of the way,I just want to say that I think its about 4-1 ON that Ronaldo puts in a good performance.
Sure he may well not score and get frustrated but hell go close.

Also,the DNB.I really don't think this is the best way to bet on the game if you think the prices are wrong.

There are simply not that many opportunities to win money on matches.if someone thinks the odds are CLEARLY wrong then its better(in the long run) imho to bet on the draw with a saver on City or City with a saver on the draw.

By doing DNB you have a good chance of missing out all together on a "value" bet.

Betting on the draw and/or City gives you a better position to hedge in the game to boot.

Personally,I will watch the first 5-6 mins,if the bloody Shy guy turns up or if its on telly,and probably bet on 0-0,1-1 .......

and,fuck it 0-1.....er,just in case.......plus 2-0 cos thanks to you lot that may actually be a bit of value


(NB my point about dnb is as far as I know right but it is off the top of my head and Ive only had 5 hours sleep...so it might be wrong!)

er,did I say shy guy,lol...er I meant,of course,the guy from sky.

That was not,repeat not,a Freudian slip

Oh and Ive noticed that Citys odds are now 4-1!!

er,in that case I won't be totally shocked if they are a bit less than 4s 10 mins in...