Clubgowi Advice: NBA 2015 - 2016 season picks

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves - San Antonio Spurs

Recommendation: OVER 196

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Minny are shaky at home and have notoriously bad match-up against San Antonio, so I easily skipped the thought of backing them plus a ton of points. They’ve raised their offensive game to much better level compared to season beginning though. Lead by Ricky Rubio on the point, the ball movement and shot selection have been very decent in the last 5-6 games of theirs indeed.

They still make a ton of turnovers which cost them losses in close games, yet Wolves surpass or get close to 100 points on regular basis currently. It will be way tougher game tonight than last easy win over Brooklyn as SAS have undisputed advantage in the series.

Still Pop doesn’t like too many useless efforts thrown on the court once the win is secured. If they lead by 20 midway through the 4th Q, it’s easy to think they’ll let Minny score a bunch of easy lay-ups.

Teams have surpassed this total line in 6 of the last 7 games between them, so hopefully this exact trend continues tonight.

NBA Chicago Bulls - Indiana Pacers

Recommendation: UNDER 201

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


This game has all the necessary requisitions to be a low scoring one. Indiana and Chicago have been old rivals in the Central Division, going back to the old school times when MJ used to face Reggie Miller in a series of epic encounters and thrash talking battles J No love lost between the teams ever after and most games have some play-off bound atmosphere around them.

Chicago have underperformed a bit this season as I’ve mentioned before. This is mainly caused by Rose / Butler competition for the stardom of being the franchise player, something which drops both guys’ game performances IMO. Things are not going into the right direction as Jimmy Boy is allowing himself a public critics on the coach, etc., so it’s highly probable a major change is coming over the hill for Bulls, i.e. Rose trade (so Butler is happy), coach change, etc. Until that happens though it seems Chicago like to reserve their best performance for the league’s better teams, where Indiana surely belongs.

Pacers got back on the track with 2 consecutive wins after 3 games losing streak. Paul George is in the middle of a shooting slump but Monta Ellis and the bench guys have compensated it; yet Pacers usually don’t provide high scoring games without their leader and franchise player George being hot. Paul will surely be matched against Jimmy on both ends of the floor tonight, so will see whose player’ claims are more valid.

I definitely think Pacers have chances to take this game but usually find it very hard to win in Chicago. These teams already exchanged one win this season, each taking his respective home game. The last 8 games in the series have finished under the total line here and I see very good chances this trend to continue

NBA Orlando Magic - Indiana Pacers

Recommendation: UNDER 198.5

Odds: 1.97

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Both teams need the win here, I expect quite hard-fought and physical game.

Orlando have looked completely lost defensively in their last 3 road losses and Coach Skiles has publicly expressed that he expects way better defensive attitude tonight. Orlando enjoys strong home record so a better performance is surely on the cards, albeit I’m not sure Magic will be able to defeat Pacers.

Indiana haven’t enjoyed much success in the New Year either, with 1 win in 3 matches. Starting PG George Hill was out last game with a food poisoning and his status is unclear today. His backup C. J. Miles left the game with right arm injury, also questionable. So Pacers will likely be a bit short on the ball distribution position and their ball movement may struggle.

Both teams should start feeling some tiredness after the grueling holiday schedule, another pointer in the slower paced-game direction. Pacers drew first blood this season, defeating Magic in Indiana in a low scoring affair, 97-84. I fully expect something similar for one of the teams tonight, whoever shoots the ball better wins it

NBA Los Angeles Clippers - Charlotte Hornets

Recommendation: Clippers - 6.5

Odds: 1.877

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


You’ll hardly find a better example for two teams going in opposing directions.

Clippers are red-hot, riding 7-game winning streak, and most impressive of all, without their leading scorer Blake Griffin. It’s true they haven’t played any of the NBA power-houses, yet most of these wins came quite easy and comfortably, with a few starters on the bench in the waning trash minutes. They’ve won in Charlotte during this streak, 122-117.

Hornets lost 5 in a row and are quite pathetic honestly. They just broke on the defensive end. Well, their excuse is the continuing injury crisis. They lack a player or two almost in every game. Big Al Jefferson is oit until mid Feb somewhere, and Nic Batum is questionable for tonight. Zeller will try to fill up the slack in the center tonight but I can only wish him luck against the monster that is DeAndre.

Redick has helped significantly in carrying the offensive load for the Clipps, Chris Paul is as smooth as ever distributing the ball, and Charlotte should do a small wonder to escape defeat tonight, most probably a double digit one

NBA San Antonio Spurs - Cleveland Cavaliers

Recommendation: Cavs + 7

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


This game is the highlight of the night and has the potential to turn into instant classic.

Both teams are in top 3 of the strongest basketball teams in the world right now (read top 3 in NBA ). San Antonio dynasty is on pace to record maybe the best regular season in franchise history, too bad for them GSW are stealing the best part of the plaudits with that shameless 36-3 record. Spurs have tuned their home floor into a real fortress, being unbeaten here so far with 22-0.

Things are not looking quite promising for King James and his Cavaliers then. Let’s not forget that Cleveland was the last team to defeat SAS here in a regular season game, 128-125 in OT game last March. Cleveland are not so dominating over their opponents on the stats end, yet they also run 8-game winning streak of their own. It’s well known LBJ likes to impose a revenge on teams which have made him suffer in the past, and San Antonio definitely fall into that category. Kyrie is also very much the old Kyrie before his lengthy absence and has a definitive advantage in speed over his counterpart Tony Parker.

It’s simple, two excellent teams will play basketball from another planet. Spurs chances seem slightly better really, but that’s why we get plus 6-7 points spread, not a neglectable insurance at all, so I feel it’s a must try here for the Cavs

NBA New York Knicks - Los Angeles Clippers

Recommendation: OVER 205

Odds: 1.943

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

The frantic schedule is taking its toll as usual for the weeks preceding the All-Star weekend. Too many players are injured and their participation in tonight’s games is questionable, or at least their level of performance if they still dress up.

Luckily the situation in this game is way clearer and I very much like this total line. Knicks have only 2 rotation players (Seraphin and lance Thomas) with knocks but they’re not so important. New York are perfect so far on their homestand with 2 wins out of 2 games. They were achieved against Sixers and Jazz though, both in overtimes and Knicks allowed 113 and 111 points respectively. So their defense is hardly at the required level, to speak mildly. Carmelo & Porzingis tandem is clicking at the other side of the floor though and this is what I need from them tonight.

Clippers played yesterday in Cleveland, lost by 13 points. The score doesn’t make them much justice though as the match was closer as a level of performance. So tiredness is a minus of course, yet Knicks defense is not at a world-beating standard as I said. Chris Paul is angry because of his omission of All-Star starters and will likely go for some 25+ points again, nobody is even close to stopping him the whole Big Apple, let alone Knicks roster. Redick leads NBA in 3-pts. percentage with just under 50 % efficiency, and DeAndre will just do some DeAndre things (dunking on people and making 50 % from FT).

I expect a sort of 102-108 game, more likely for Clipps, let’s see

Los Angeles Clippers - Chicago Bulls

Recommendation: Bulls + 5.5

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


It seems like q quite risky play but I am inclined to think Chicago have better chance than the spread and odds suggests. Clippers play good ball lately, no denying the obvious. Their pure stats line reads only 3 losses in the last 10 games. A more detailed glimpse behind the curtain though shows 2 of the wins came after OT, 2 of the losses were against good rivals (Cavs and Raptors), and finally LA really rode their luck in the wins over Indy and Atlanta.

It seems like variance will make a move on them in a negative way very soon, moreover they tend to struggle on the offensive end against teams with decent perimeter defense (so Redick and Paul don't shoot too many uncontested threes) and a strong paint protectors (so DeAndre doesn't dunk too many times a game).

Chicago definitely fills both categories. They are up and down this season generally, pretty poor stretch currently. Yet Bulls took nice wins over solid opponents like Detroit and Cleveland on the road, plus performed in a dominating fashion over Lakers (well, not really a great accomplishment). The spirit is high and Bulls surely want to make everything possible to record a road sweep over the Los Angeles teams. Rose will be additionally motivated to show a few good things against a top notch PG like Paul, Jimmy Boy should be also in a positive mood after being selected as an All-Star reserve. Pau Gasol and Gibson will have a hard but far than impossible task of slowing down DeAndre in the paint.

All in all, the spread gives us a good cushion, it's a point or two bigger than what I expected

NBA Boston Celtics - Oklahoma City Thunder /

Recommendation: Thunder -4

Odds: 1.84

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

Boston’s need is slightly greater here arguably but it’s NBA and the motivation factor very rarely wins games by itself. Boston and Miami will fight each other till the last regular season game (probably) for the third seed in the East.

Unfortunately, Boston seem like a team going through a rough patch lately. They lost against Houston here at Boston Garden and against Indiana yesterday. Celtics continue to play without forward Jay Crowder who is one of their better defenders (maybe even the best defender on the roster) and proven scorers like Harden and Paul George exploited this absence.

Oklahoma never have troubles with scoring when both Durant and Westbrook play and there’s no doubt they’ll punish Boston too (not that Crowder could possibly stop any of these 2). Thunder recorded a very fine and confident win over Portland, by 20+ points and are ready to start this mini 3-game road trip on the right foot. Isaiah Thomas, Celtics best player this season, will be in quite a disadvantage against Russell, and Thunder have a bunch of decent big bodies in the frontcourt to throw at Sullinger, Amir Johnson and Jerebko.

Boston took advantage of Durant’s absence in November to win in Oklahoma, the revenge is best served cold though and is coming back at them tonight

NBA Cleveland Cavaliers - Houston Rockets

Recommendation: Cavs ML

Odds: 1.833

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


LeBron will be given a rest tonight and this is why we have so low spread on Cleveland at home against a mediocre team like Houston. Cavs have more than enough quality in their roster to win this without LBJ of course; the question is will they be motivated enough? I think yes, as Tyronn Lue won’t be completely happy until they secure the first seed mathematically. Plus, Kevin Love and Kyrie will want to show they can be superstars on their own and not be held by the hand from the King all the way. Kyrie especially should be extra fired up because of the yellow gossips of his girlfriend dumping him, this must be really irritating for him at this important stage of the season, true or false. This is the perfect moment he proves his critics wrong.

Houston will scramble with Dallas and Utah for the last 2 remaining play-off spots till the very end of the regular season most probably. Rockets have proved on many occasions they terribly need a real leader and not just 2 stars fighting with each other and caring for their personal stats mainly. This is the decisive time of the season and Rockets mostly fail lately. They have won only 4 games in their last 10 (1 in the last 5!). The last one in Indiana was a close one really but just showed once again Rockets are not gritty enough this season. The only factor that worries me a bit is Marcus Beasley. He is very reliable on the offensive end and really brings a spark from the bench. Cleveland second unit is overall better though, quite naturally. Houston’s defensive attitude is the usual failure cause anyway, so I’m pretty confident in the home win here.

NBA: Utah Jazz - San Antonio Spurs

Recommendation: OVER 183

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Utah are a top defensive team beyond any doubt. They’ve put another great run lately in their quest to catch the last play-off train, holding teams to under 90 points in their last 10 games or so. The only small problem is San Antonio is one of the teams Jazz can’t really slow down, but this could be said about many other NBA teams anyway.

This is the 4th and final game in the season series. Spurs have won all 3 so far and a clean sweep is on the cards, regardless of the fact that Jazz are in greater need. Both games in San Antonio have gone comfortably over this line (198 and 221 points) and only the first meeting here was a defensive battle (96-78 for Sours). I’m inclined to believe exactly that game was a blip out of the trend though, as Jazz still weren’t able to contain Spurs. Tonight they just have to gamble and give everything they got for the win. Winning would mean scoring at least 95 points though, and this is the optimistic scenario!

Popovich hasn’t announced yet any players to be given a full rest tonight, but it’s not excluded he changes his mind. I expect Spurs’ Big 3 plus Kahwi to play limited minutes in all cases though, as the win here brings very small value for them as it’s a road game and doesn’t mess with their unbeaten home games record. I like San Antonio bench a lot, it’s a bit stating the obvious their bench is one of the two best in the league (along with GSW one of course). Second unit don’t play as tough defense as the starters really (completely in line with our target tonight) but still remain remarkably effective on the offensive end.

A home win wouldn’t be a total shock in these conditions, but the spread is on the low side (+3, + 4 points). I can easily see more scenarios ending with a road win, something in the range of 100-95 for SA