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Coronavirus Covid-19

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by slick, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

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    May as well put everything Corona Virus related in here because if it's not already it will impact on everybody's life before it's over.
  2. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Good read here about the strategy we're taking in the Uk to tackle the Corona Virus.
    Bit of a long winder but now the Pubs and clubs are shut it might pass a bit of time, looks like we could be under lock down for a while.
    It's a paper from a University rather than the usual stuff in the media.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
  3. slick

    slick Administrator

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    12,493
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Fuck me I've just posted about this -Suppose I'd better go and fetch it:leaving
    slick likes this.
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    I've just done a bit of amateur analysis between Italy, Spain and France and it struck me that the key stage was around the 200 deaths mark that things started moving to a similar pattern and, sure enough, that's the way it's turned out so far and the UK will reach the 200 mark tomorrow so will it go the same route.

    These are the death figures, day one being the first day that they broke the 200 barrier. All figures taken from Wikipedia.


    Day 1
    Italy 233
    Spain 294
    France 244

    Day 2
    Italy 366
    Spain 342
    France 372

    Day 3
    Italy 463
    Spain 533
    France 450

    Day 4
    Italy 631
    Spain 638

    France

    Day 5
    Italy 827
    Spain 833

    France

    Day 6
    Italy 1016
    Spain 1093

    France

    Day 7
    Italy 1266
    Spain
    France

    Day 8
    Italy 1441
    Spain
    France

    Day 9
    Italy 1809
    Spain
    France


    So this is why I'm thinking that Spain could end up being worse than Italy (which, per capita, it already is but I'm talking in real terms). If we don't see Spain reversing their recent trend and ending up with under 700 deaths in the next three days (a week after their lockdown kicked in) it looks like they are on the same trail as Italy.

    Unless France see a spike over the next three days (and if this crisis has been anything it's been unpredictable) it looks like it's going to break away from the trajectory of the other two and fair a lot better than them.

    But of course the most interesting thing to keep an eye on for me is the UK figures. It would be nice to think it could carry on with the 30 or 40 per day of recent days but if it spikes to a hundred a day, that would put them in the same territory as the other three after day 3.

    Judging by Boris's announcement today, there is not much cause to be optimistic that it may be the former.
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Those links look interesting mate. I'll give em a good going over tomorrow. Too late for that stuff now.
    slick likes this.
  7. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Was at another Brother in laws Funeral on Wednesday, he was an alcoholic and when he passed most people who knew him were surprised he lasted so long.
    Turns out he died of Pneumonia and nothing to do with alcohol, he was only 58 , no post mortem or test for Corona done.
    While discussing it somebody else piped up his father had just died of pneumonia too, I actually knew his father but haven't seen him for years, he wasn't much older than me, liked a drink and smoke as much as I did.
    He showed me photo's of his dad from 12 month ago and photos of him before he died, they were like chalk and cheese, in the latter photo's he looked like an aids victim from the 90's, again no post mortem or corona test.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the figures are a lot higher than the government are pumping out hence a scenario we haven't seen since the war considering the death statistics we are given.
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    If you were to read the death certificate slick you’d probably find that, although pneumonia was listed as the final cause of death, it would list cirrhosis and any other alcohol related damage. if someone lies in a hospital bed dying of cancer for six months their final cause of death is still likely to be listed as pneumonia.

    It’s known as the immediate cause of death but the real cause will be the underlying condition or intermediate cause and that’s where the effects of alcoholism will listed.
  9. slick

    slick Administrator

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    12,493

    It's Horrific and I don't think it will bite fully over here until we're registering similar or worse figures.
    It's hit home with a few hence the supermarkets being stripped bare but a majority of people are going to get the biggest reality check they've ever seen.
    That's not to say you have to hoard as you don't as those selfish cnuts think they can baton down the hatches and fcuk everybody else.
    We're in this together and need to look after each other especially the elderly and infirm, there's plenty to go around so long as your not a greedy cunt.

    Saying that I did buy a 20kg bag of rice today and two tins of 1.75kg tins of plum tommies, that was only because there was fcuk all else left and I ended up going to an asian warehouse.
  10. slick

    slick Administrator

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    12,493
    I didn't see the death certificate so can't comment on that but the ones that did never mentioned anything alcohol related, you could be right though, it's something I never considered, I'll try and find out.
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    the key seems to be testing testing testing. The south koreans are treating every fucker they can get hold of and they are losing 3 or 4 a day. if you know who’s got it you know who to keep away from whom.

    we just haven’t got enough test kits
  12. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Koreans are not as diverse as us though and have all got pretty much the same mentality.
    I'd hazard a guess once we go into full lock down the usual dick heads will come out on the streets and start looting and rioting if not before.
    Plus we have a huge black market illegal immigrant work force off the grid who nobody can monitor.
  13. slick

    slick Administrator

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  14. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Looking at the International stats, Germany are doing a great job considering the amount of infected people they have.

    We on the other hand us and the Dutch look like a disaster waiting to happen, I 100% hope I'm wrong:crossfingers
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  15. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Just viewing the International stats from the link I posted above and they have quite a few live stats on that site.
    One being the world population...
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    I'm going to ask a question now that will no doubt be asked in years to come and that is.......
    Out of a population of nearly 8 billion people have we really collapsed the economy of the world for the death of currently around 11,000 old or infirm people or have we just become too sentimental? or maybe even cut back that much in the health sector leaving ourselves wide open to this.
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  16. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Suppose that question should really be asked when this is over and the final death toll tallied up.
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    like i posted somewhere on here the other day the final death toll in the UK is likely to be less than 50,000 unless the fucker mutates and starts infecting people again straight away- then we’re fucked.

    50k is a lot but it’s hardly world war figures is it?

    As i also said, the next three days will tell us more about ours and Spains trajectory. then we just have to see next week if the measures taken by other countries a week to ten days ago start to bite
    SAMOAN likes this.
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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  19. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    There is light at the end of the tunnel, for sure. The thing I'm having trouble dealing with at the moment is not knowing how long the sodding tunnel is. Officially here in Spain we've got another 8 days of lockdown, can't see any way it's going to end there though, an extension is pretty much guaranteed, how long for is anyone's guess. After this next week the kids would only have 4 more days at school and then they're off for the Easter holidays until the 14th April. Right now, if you offered me the chance for the lockdown to end when the Easter holidays are finished, I'd rip your arm off for it, but I suspect it could well run even longer than that.
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Not a chance mate.

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