Day 1 - Tuesday 13th March 2018

Race times should be the same for all four days, i.e

130
210
250
330
410
450
530

Little plug for Bet365, Paddy Power and Skybet who are the only ones going non-runner no bet on all races.

Bet365 deserve the most plaudits because they are also best odds guaranteed and will usually take a bet whereas Skybet are a joke of a company who will offer extra places on the day but will only let you have 80p each way on if you win a few bets with them. Paddy Power usually offer something extra on day one so I would advise anyone NOT to place a bet on antepost markets.

Sooooooo, I've obviously not taken my own advise because I'm impatient so, for small stakes, I've had a bit on Kaleshnikov each way at 8/1 in the opening race the Supreme Novice, currently best price 11/2 with anyone offering NRNB but, before anyone accuses me of boasting, most of the bets I place will go off at bigger prices on the day. They do every year.

In the Arkle, I'm on Footpad which I backed at 15/8 and again at 4/5 (now evens). Unusually, I do actually have one fancy on day one and this is it (and has been for a while now). As I see it, it's a two-horse race between that and Petit Mouchoir but this is the festival.

I haven't backed anything in race three the Ultima Handicap but I'm struggling to see how Singlefarmpayment can possibly be any shorter than 20/1. It's half that price. Brilliant run last year where it looked comfortable all the way round and finished 2nd in the same race. In the last 3 months it has fallen, finished 5th and pulled up. I wouldn't back it to finish, let alone win.

So get on it

Champion Hurdle - I've laid Buveur D'air for no good reason than the price is ridiculous (or was, with weeks to go before the race)

Mares Hurdle. Many of these will no doubt be entered into more than one race and, in any event, I can't see anything but an Apples Jade win.

National Hunt Chase. If today was the day of the race I'd be backing Presenting Percy and looking for at least two others at big prices. No bets placed yet.

Close Brothers Handicap. Gonna be at least three each way bets for me in this one and I haven't placed a bet yet but Movewiththetimes will probably be the first one at 10/1. I won't keep going on about how much JP McManus' horses have made me at the festivals over the years because I've done that every year.
I think Barney Dwan will be favorite on the day.

Trends, comments and stuff
Atheraces says

Supreme Novices.
Positives
Four of the last 15 winners finished in the first five in the previous season’s Champion Bumper making it the best guide in recent seasons.

Trained in Ireland (notably by Willie Mullins)

Three runs or more over hurdles

Front runners

Contested last season's Champion Bumper


Negatives
Likely to start at under 3/1. Ten of the last 13 favourites to be sent off at 2/1 or shorter in the Supreme were beaten. Getabird 7/4 FAV

Beaten last time out

Ran on the flat

Not run during the last 45 days


Next Destination finished fourth in last year's bumper, won last time out. Has had 3 runs over hurdles. Not a front runner but has been handy in recent runs. Not trained my Mr Mullins but trained in Ireland by Mrs Mullins. Best price (with NRNB) 14/1
Unfortunately also has entries for two other races.

Western Ryder finished fifth in last year's bumper and has had more than three runs over hurdles but beaten last time out, not trained in Ireland. Again, not the front running type. Best price 33/1

Arkle Positives
Trained by Willie Mullins or Henderson
Highest rated hurdler
Won or placed at festival (notably a novice hurdle)
Ran in the November Novices’ Chase, Henry VIII Novices’ Chase or Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase

Negatives
5 Year old
Likely to start 12/1+
Not officially rated 142+


Favourite Footpad seems to tick most of the right boxes. Even money

Ultima Handicap. Last year's winner made something of a mockery of previous trends, being the first winner rated over 150 in 35 years but, for what it's worth

Likely to start in first four in betting (although, as Seen has pointed out, favorites don't do well so make of that what you will).
Won last time out
Won or placed at a previous festival
Prepped over hurdles (notably the cleeve hurdle)
Owned by JP McManus
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill, David Pipe, Alan King or Neil Mulholland

Negatives, Aged 11+ and trained by Paul Nicholls


The only last time out winners I can see with a previous festival place are Coo Star Sivola 10/1 (been money for it recently) and Gold Present 8/1

Champion hurdle positives
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (for each-way purposes)

Negatives
Five-year-olds (for win-only purposes)
Aged 10+
Not run during the same calendar year
Unplaced in last year’s race


Odds on fav Buveur D'air?

OLBG Mares Hurdle
Positives
Irish-trained
Ran well in last year's race
Novices

Negatives - none

Again, Odds on fav Apple's Jade
Graceful Legend 66/1
Indian Stream 66/1
Vroom Vroom Mag 6/1

National Hunt Challenge Cup

Close Bro's Nov Hcap Chase

Sceau Royal is out of the Arkle

No wonder they're putting the price of the paper up with top tipping like that

1.30 - DAME ROSE - Grade 2 Bumper / listed hurdle winner and fair fourth last time out at Donnie. Suspicion she might just prefer better ground, but does have enough form on the going to merit consideration and definite place prospects on her best form. Tongue tie added and for me, looks a little big at 66's.

2.50 - COGRY - Goes on the ground, is a capable stayer and has won last 2 course starts. Not in the best of form lately, but a revival here would not be a huge shock at 16's.

5.30 - KAYF ADVENTURE - May not be up to this level, but arrives here in decent form and does have plenty of form on the ground. Fair upset potential at 33's.

The light type is my orginal post and the bold is my update