Discussion in 'CHELTENHAM 2018' started by Punter, Feb 27, 2018.
Is Samcro the second coming of Jesus Christ or just a horse? We will find out on this day. I've laid it but it does look a hell of a beast.
Champion Chase. As above, I've laid Altior and nobody needs telling how impressive that animal is but anything can hit a fence and 4/6 is a shit price.
Cross Country Chase. Josies Orders 7/1 (currently 11/2 with any NRNB firms)
I agree, it looks a hell of a horse but at those odds is it worth backing?
I like the look of TOWER BRIDGE who is beautifully bred, but i'd want the sun shining and ground drying if it's to get close to Samcro. Betting suggests the the official going on the opening day will be soft so i'll be praying for no rain Tuesday night.
I'm not sure what bet (or size of bet i'll have here but i'll definitely be on), whether it'll be a straight each way bet @ 25/1 or without Samcro, each way at 16/1.
RHINESTONE had the rest of the field well beat in a grade 2 flat race at Leopardstown last month and that's the form line i'm following for this race, with preference for Rhinestone reversing the places @ 8/1.
Ballymore-Next Destination @ 4-1 [Unibet] Win [BOG]
Rsa-Bonbon Au Miel @ 25-1 [Skybet] Each Way [BOG]
Coral-Le Breuil @ 14-1 [Skybet] Each Way [BOG]
Cross-Tiger Roll @ 5-1 [Unibet] Win [BOG]
Fred-Mitchouka @ 14-1 [Unibet] Each Way [BOG]
Bumper-Acey Milan @ 9-1 [Betfair Sports] Each Way
Been pulled out. I would imagine Aintree has to be the target now.
All declared to run
2.10 Monalee / Dounikos (ew)
2.50 Diamond King
4.10 Cause if Causes (5/1 antepost)
4.50 Style De Garde / Mitchouka (both ew)
5.30 Felix Desjy / Rhinestone / Acey Milan
Good luck everybody
ALLYSON MONTERG - Lightly raced 8yo who is capable of fair form. Tough ask here on only 2nd start over fences, but 6th in the Albert Bartlett in 2016 and does go on the ground, so no forlorn hope at 50's
3.30 - ORDINARY WORLD - Plenty to find with Altior, but remains a useful sort. 9 runners so not a bad race for an EW bet and capable of placing at 66's
4.50 - KNIGHT DESTROYER - Stable often find improving handicappers for the festival and even has a decent chance on bare form to date. Last time's 3rd to APPLE'S SHAKIRA reads well and won't mind the better ground today. Certainly one of the more interesting sorts at 25's
5.30 - DASHEL DRESHER - Rare Bumper winner for this trainer on debut and did beat a fair sort into 2nd. Impossible to know if that form is good enough, but we at least know he goes on the ground at 50's
RHINESTONE is my main hope today. I'd take a place if i was offered it now.
Other E.W. bets include...
1.30 - DUC DES GENIEVRES
2.10 - MONALEE
2.50 - MISCHIEVOUS MAX
3.30 - POLITOLOGUE
ew vison des flos and scarpitat or whatever it is
RSA AB Photo and Dounikos
Will fill others in later but fancy Barra ew in 250
Samcro, Percy and Altior were just too obvious and too short for my liking.
Nice to get at least one winner
I did have the intention of using this market to trade throughout the meeting, before it started the three 'runners' were priced at around 1.7, 3.5 and 9.0. I couldn't see there not being at least one winner at bigger than 25/1, especially with the heavy ground, so ruled out the bottom option. I thought the value lay with the middle option (28/1 or 33/1) and got £20 matched at 3.8.
I thought that with this being Cheltenham and the colossal amount of money being matched on Betfair that there would be plenty of 'in-running' money, or at least plenty there in between each days racing, but no, there's fuck all there, so I guess I'll have to let it ride. There was a 33/1 winner today so I just have to get through the next two days with no winner returning at 40/1 or bigger