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Early Thoughts...

Discussion in 'CHELTENHAM 2018' started by Punter, Feb 27, 2018.

  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    Two weeks to go. Excited?

    I'm looking forward to a week off work, beer and betting slips. It's also officially the last week of winter. TFFT.

    I've not had a bet at all yet but my early thoughts are..

    Buveur Dair and Altior should win their races but i also like Faugheen and Politologue as an each way or betting without the favourites alternative.
    I'll probably put those two favourites with Apples Jade and Samcro and go with a trebles from 4, bet though.

    One at a big price i'm going to be backing if conditions favour is SIZING TENNESSE. The 10yo has taken a while to get going and has been passed about some top yards. He has had jumping issues but has stayed on his feet the last 3 races all at Cheltenham, now.
    Would of beaten Black Corton when falling two out here last October and has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in three good races here since.

    Entered in 4 races, it'll be interesting to see which one they go for.

    I've no idea where to start with the Gold Cup

    Anyone had a bet yet, or any early thoughts?
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 9, 2018
    slick likes this.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    I've had a few tentative thoughts but it's difficult when you don't know what horses are going to what races. Obviously everyone likes to watch the class horses run but as a betting proposition they are no use to man nor beast. In fact, I've laid the short priced favorites for small stakes in the hope that they will either not make it to the starting line or will fall or otherwise get themselves beat.

    For me, you may as well throw the form book out of the window for Cheltenham week. It's all bollocks and if you don't believe me, you can look at the results for any year and look at the relevant racecard. If it was all about pounds and ounces and previous winning margins there would be no 66/1 winners. If I had someone in front of me who was going into their first festival asking if I had any advice, I'd say, don't let any price put you off your pick. Whether you're following a certain jockey, or a stable, or backing horses that you've backed previously or whether you're actually spending hours studying form, I'd say decide how much you're going to have on a bet and put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as you would a 2/1 shot. You will make more money in the long term backing at prices over 10/1 than you will backing at under 10/1 and you only need maybe one winners and some places to make a profit over the 28 races.

    I'd also advise not to back ANYTHING based solely on something that some geyser (no matter how highly respected) said on one of the preview nights or in the newspaper or internet article. Likewise, don't let any of them talk you out of backing anything with a comment that they won't get the trip or like the ground or some other shite.

    My own approach is to not take the gambling too seriously for that week. It's mainly a fucking lottery so I don't invest too much time studying, only to find that the horse that has only ran once in the last year pops up to win at 25/1 because that win gave it just the rating that it needed to get into a particular race and the trainer was holding it back because it knew it was fully capable of winning that race with that handicap mark.

    I tend to back horses/jockeys/trainers that I have backed before. I do (slightly contradicting what I've just said) like to be with horses that ran well (not necessarily winning) in the big Irish meetings around Xmas time as they often throw up profit making horses. I reckon those runs often make a trainers mind up IF a horse is going to run at the festival and, if so, in which race.

    The jockey's I'll be following this year are Jack Kennedy, the Bowen brothers, Briony Frost and Richie Mclernon if he has any rides.

    There's nothing particularly genius about picking out these jockeys as many will be on the first four of them but the thing is to back them on EVERY ride (prices permitting - obviously you can't back them all in a 10 runner race at 5/1 or something daft :)) and not just the ones they're at the top end of the market on because they will pop up with big priced winners and places to put a smile on the faces of the faithful.

    I set out every year in the knowledge that I'm unlikely to get my money back by the end of the week but I almost always do better than expected and often return a profit. I'm just hoping this weather doesn't ruin the week.
    Kegman, Punter and slick like this.
  3. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    Good stuff and good luck ODM.

    Regarding jockeys, Hills are the only bookie offering odds on Top Jockey at present...

    Capture.PNG


    Can't help but think both Nico De Boinville and Noel Fehily represent some value there.
    Boinville will have some top rides for both Nicky Henderson and Ben Pauling, while Fehily who looks set to ride Our Duke and Monalee, to name a couple.
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Walsh is a lay for me. Is he even back riding yet?
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    There are only really two races I take seriously at the Festival, both which have strong stats from previous years which nearly always repeat themselves.

    First off is the opening Supreme novice hurdle, the Sire stamina index must be 10.0f or higher, almost every winner has qualified on this and sometimes you can confidently rule out one or two of the fancied runners. I think the other rule is that the horse must have been sent off at evens or odds-on on at least one of it's previous outings, admittedly most of the fancied runners usually qualify on this but combine the two rules and you usually get a shortlist of 4 or 5 which the winner will probably come from.

    The other is the Kim Muir amateur riders handicap (Thurs I think), you need to be looking for a horse who is consistent but places more than it wins, especially if it's the type to lack a turn of foot (outpaced mid-race, runs on late, type). Lightly weighted horses used to be strongly favoured but nowadays it's more of a condensed handicap so this isn't as relevant now.
    Kegman likes this.
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Is there somewhere where you can get sire stamina indexes from that's free Seen?

    I must admit, it's probably me most profitable race over the years and I doubt that most of the ones that have won for me would qualify for those two stats, including the winner last year that I backed at 50/1 and Ebaziyan at about the same price although I may be wrong. I'd be impressed if they did qualify.

    Also backed Captain Cee Bee (which I imagine may qualify) when I got the first two (JP McManus horses) so I can basically bet in this race for the rest of my life and it will still have been a profitable race for me:lol

    Whilst I wouldn't dismiss race trends, it will certainly be factored into the price to some degree because there are so many books, sites and Festival guides publishing stats for previous winners. I'd say what I said earlier, if you fancy one (for whatever reason, even if it's only that you like the jockey's arse) then don't be put off by previous stats.

    I did my own analysis of the first day races at one stage to look for trends that may not be obvious but can't for the life of me remember where I put the results. For example, I was looking to see where Henderson had previously ran his fancied entries and at what tracks (there was no conclusive outcome) and the same with Mullins and Nichols. They are the three trainers that will have landed the most prize money (including place money) on day one but that's because they will have had the most runners and you can't back them all. Plus the betting will be skewed by their past success (non more than Willie Mullins) and it galls me to back a Mullins Walsh combination knowing that it's half the price that it probably should be. I'd usually rather back each way than back one of them.

    Anyway, I digressed there. I think the conclusion that I came to was that there was no pattern but, if you dismiss the odds-odd superhorses and concentrated on the rest, I'm pretty sure that Henderson's each way horses showed a profit on the first day.

    If I was seriously trying to make a profit on the week, I would be backing ONLY each way horses (i.e double figures minimum) in races offering 4 places or more throughout the week. That combined with some of the additional place odds and other bookie offers would get me maximum enjoyment from minimum investment I reckon. I just know I've had more returns from 16/1+ horses than I ever had picking out horses at the pointy end of the market, plus you're likely to have an interest for longer in the race if you pick two or three (depending on the field size) of those out as you're fighting for a place rather than knowing your fate early in the race when you realise you can't possibly win.

    I might even try a thread for it:thumb

    Sorry for the ramble but I fucking love Cheltenham week, no matter how much it costs me:lol
  7. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    The Racing Post has the sire stamina index when you click on the horse for it's form, some don't have one though.

    Last year's winner LABAIK qualified on the sire SI just (10.0f) but narrowly failed the previous SP rule (5/4f). 2007 winner EBAZIYAN was indeed a qualifier at 40/1 (11.6f and 8/11f winner previously as well as evens twice).
  8. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

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    I love Cheltenham. Imo every horse is trying - no matter what price it is as every owner, trainer, jockey or member of stable staff love nothing more than having a winner at Cheltenham. I do also appreciate that some owners/trainers love to say they've had a runner at the festival so may still run some that have no chance.

    I've got a few bets on already but only a couple of quid on them - will post them up later.
    Punter likes this.
  9. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    No favourite has won a handicap at the Festival since 2014 - 35 races ago.
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    The problem with that stat is that you often don't know what the fav is going to be even a quarter of an hour before the race. On the day markets are often wild and prices go all over the fucking place before either something emerges out of the pack as fav or it comes to off time and, like musical chairs, whoever is sitting at the head of the market at that time is "it". As I said, in my view, the value way to "buy" an interest in the festival is to pick out a bunch of each way horses and look for at least one of them to place to make a profit, with the outside chance of the jackpot if one actually wins.

    The more we talk about, the more excited I get about it. I'm on a stag do in Edinbro for the Friday to Monday before and so won't have my normal build up but that may be a good thing as it will keep me from hearing the bollocks that some of the "experts" talk.
  11. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    Yeah, I wasn't suggesting that there's a profit to be made laying them, it was rather to back up your opinion that many of the races, especially handicaps, are wide open and a bit of a lottery.
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Im off today due to the snow so ill look around for some race trends just for interest
  13. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    I'm thinking of following every Joseph Patrick O'Brien mule, level stakes, each way, when runners are confirmed.

    I know a lot of these won't travel and other horses will be pulled out and shorten these prices, but at present he has some list at decent odds...

    b1.PNG b2.PNG

    Without being Top Trainer i think he could spring a surprise or two. I know he and his family are more known for flat winners (the best) but he's taken to jumps quite well. Last month he landed two big races at big prices (Edwulf @ 33/1 and Tower Bridge 25/1) but even more importantly he has JP McManus horses and i think he could be value for the odds.
    Topdog likes this.
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Interesting angle mate
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Sceau Royal is out if the Arkle
  16. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

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    Understand that the Racing Post will go up on Monday from £2.40 to £2.90:rant
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  17. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    Capture.PNG

    That looks a ridiculous price on JPM to be top owner.
    I know Gigginstown have Samcro and a lot of other top runners and Rich Ricci will have a winner or two but i cant help but feel that JPM is bigger and stronger than ever before. I was expecting to see big odds on for JPM and it's got me a bit confused. Is it based on winners and runners up etc or on Prize Money?
  18. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

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    Sizing John out of Gold Cup

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 9, 2018
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