ENGLISH FOOTBALL ANTE POST BETTING 2016/17 SEASON

Spurs worry me Punt

Leeds have won 9 of their last 12 and are currently 28.00 with betfred

They have a tricky game away to Huddersfield (who played tonight) on Sunday but then have a decent run of games until late March when they play Brighton Reading and Newcastle in a run of three games in five

Maybe worth a couple of points

Fleetwood are on a run of 8 wins 4 draws since their last defeat on Nov 12 including an away win at Sheff Utd

They are currently 80.00 at many bookies

I dont think many could disagree that that's value. I assumed they were 40-1(I don't care about odds to win the league of teams in that price range hence my ignorance) . Especially with Sheffield Utd having several tricky games coming up.

I really fancy them for promotion because if they remain in the play offs they have the beating of Bradford and `probably Bolton. You'd certainly fancy them to get to the final. Also Rochdale have a load of tough games coming up thus helping Fleetwood remain in the top 6 hopefully.

Exeter at 8-1 for a top 3 spot bet 365 is a bet that's currently making me come in pants.

Edit thats my pants I'm coming in.

But these days I'm so lazy I don't check other bookies prices. I think there's only a couple who do such a market though and skybet or BetVictor are at least one of them so you'd be lucky to get a tenner on.

The fact that Exeter play Carlisle on the last day at home helps as should `Carlisle be the team in 3rd place on the last day you can easily hedge.Assuming there only a couple of points in it of course.
Also they are at Donny in the penultimate game but `Donny may have won the league by then. In fact ideally they will clinch the league the game before and it's a great time to play a team.
Monacos victory at PSG at 10-1 last season was a case in point. PSG played as if it was t raining match. Though Donny won't be that bad.
However it looks as if either Portsmouth or Luton will occupy that spot as `Carlisle seem to be fading a bit. But then there's always a chance Plymouth could do what they did last season.

Although Pompey have been flattering to deceive yet again be aware that they don't have many games against the best teams left so could go on a decent run.

Otherwise just betting Exter for promotion is decent since of course if they don't get automatic they should be in the play offs.

However in these leagues key injuries can change things drastically.

Interesting. I didn't know that.

The `Racing Post has a bumper pull out selection every August that's jam packed with antepost tips and there's a double page in it where they ask all manner of tipsters including the bookies themselves -e.g. Steve `Freeth ? from bet 365 and Goff from Coral who they think are the best bets for lots of different markets and...

Chelsea were tipped for the Prem by I think I'm right in saying 60 -70 % of them.

Now the thing is that's probably not that big a surprise -i.e. that tipsters went with Chelsea -because of the lack of European football which is probably worth about 5 points on its own. Possibly a couple more.

Of course `Blues were far more than 5 points behind but last season was clearly nowhere near representative of their true ability.

Oh FUCK!!!!

That's twice in a few days bet 365 have slashed a price without me expecting them to!

I'm almost certain Exeter were 8s on Monday which will have been the last time I looked. But then perhaps it was a palpable error on their part.

Bet 365 are surprisingly lax at updating long term prices at times.

Well there's definitely no value there then. I'm off to see whether I took any of the 8-1 . Don't think I did.

Ha. Now I feel doubly stupid because rather than use oddschecker I phoned up bet 365 to find out and yep they changed it at 12.17 pm

And nope I didn't take the 8-1 as I fully expected it to still be there.

One of the reasons I love betting on long term markets so much is because you usually have up to a whole week to leisurely mull over what bets you want to do knowing that because there are so few serious bettors competing on these markets even value prices don't usually go.

But as I say,twice in a couple of days I've been caught out. Still ,it's all about learning.

Anyway bet 365 probably wouldn't have liked it if I'd taken clear value and the last thing I need is to be banned.

I've just seen that Bet 365 are 7-2 Exeter to be promoted.

So I think they've overreacted by cutting them to 4-1 for top 3. I think that perhaps they were influenced by dkybets price or something.

Either that or some has placed a big bet on at the 8-1 but I think that's quite unlikely.

Anyway no one in their right mind is going to touch the 4-1 for top 3 when they can get 7-2 for promotion.

So the 7-2 promotion is I think a reasonable bet for the reasons specified above.

Sorry,for the multiple posts. Must have lost connection.

I've just seen that Bet 365 are 7-2 Exeter to be promoted.

So I think they've overreacted by cutting them to 4-1 for top 3. I think that perhaps they were influenced by skybets price or something.

Either that or someone has placed a big bet on at the 8-1 but I think that's quite unlikely.

Anyway no one in their right mind is going to touch the 4-1 for top 3 when they can get 7-2 for promotion.

So the 7-2 promotion is I think a reasonable bet for the reasons specified above.

Southend are almost certainly value to be promoted at WHills 10-1.

Not only are they consistent but they have as benign a set of remaining fixtures as any team in England and should be odds on to be top 6.

So that's Fleetwood at 6-1 (when I mentioned then for promotion ) and Southend at 10-1

Bradford simply cannot win often enough and are looking odds on to miss out on the play offs.

So no doubt they will beat Bolton 3-0 in their next game.