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English Premier League betting 24-26th September

Discussion in 'Football Betting' started by slick, Sep 21, 2011.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,576
    Saturday 24th September 2011
    12:45 Manchester City 4/11 Draw 10/3 Everton 13/2
    15:00 Arsenal 2/5 Draw 10/3 Bolton 11/2
    15:00 Chelsea 1/6 Draw 5/1 Swansea 12/1
    15:00 Liverpool 1/3 Draw 10/3 Wolves 15/2
    15:00 Newcastle 4/5 Draw 12/5 Blackburn 3/1
    15:00 West Brom 6/5 Draw 23/10 Fulham 19/10
    15:00 Wigan 9/4 Draw 12/5 Tottenham evens
    17:30 Stoke 9/2 Draw 11/4 Manchester Utd 8/15

    Sunday 25th September 2011
    16:00 Q.P.R. 11/8 Draw 23/10 Aston Villa 17/10

    Monday 26th September 2011
    20:00 Norwich 7/5 Draw 23/10 Sunderland 13/8

    Odds Skybet
  2. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,220
    Would not be touching arsenal or Liverpool with a very long bargepole at those prices :unsure
    Might not be beyond Everton getting a point as well. Obviously you'd expect Man City to win but I reckon that'd be a long 90 minutes with your money on @ 4/11.
    Could be tempted with west Brom & possibly Spurs, but QPR look bet of the weekend material to me :cry
  3. Rob44

    Rob44 Member

    Messages:
    168
    have to agree with the qpr bet. newcastle have played both teams at their place and drawn both games. the difference though was that aston villa were all over the place and lucky to get their point whereas qpr came across as an accomplished side with slick passing and the toon were lucky to get their point - 2.4@ willhill
  4. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,212
    yeah,absolutely correct-if only it were that easy!!
    as far as I know its pretty much common knowledge that the toon were unlucky v villa and lucky v qpr.
    I know it,the readers of the racing and football outlook know it(they tipped qpr at 6-4),my next door neighbour knows it and quite possily 10% of the population of china knows it....and,of course the bookies know it.

    logically qpr are the bet.............

    anyways i will have small positions on betfair on 2-0,0-0 and 0-1!!!:eek:(assuming its value) but I will also have a wee bet on qpr without the big 6 at 28-1!!!!how can villa be 7-2 and the team that everyone and their cats say is gonna beat em be 28s!?
    thats why I prefer antepost betting...if its a draw the 28s is still ok......

    UP THE RS
  5. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

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    2,212
    actually I think the racing post tipped it an all...on monday...

    it just cannot lose then!
  6. Rob44

    Rob44 Member

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    168
    :D put your money on the toon v blackburn as a saver 1.90

    or er... don't... as that unbeaten run is going to end one day and in newcastle's case its always likely to be against the shitiest team in the league :unsure
  7. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,576
    We or I should say 'I' can't do any worse than last week Surely.

    Early KO City V Everton, City have an abysmall record against Everton but we are getting closer to them, in fact City were unlucky in the sense they outplayed Everton in both fixtures last season and still came away with nothing, whereas previous to that Everton usually stuffed City.
    I have a strong feeling City will beat Everton on Saturday but those odds are way too short considering the recent history this fixture has, I wouldn't be suprised to see both teams score though as Cahill is usually good for an obligatory headed goal against us and you just cannot see City not scoring.

    As has allready been mentioned I think we can scrub the Arsenal and Liverpool games as it would be daft to back against them and even dafter to back them at those odds.
    I expect Chelsea to ease to a victory against Swansea but once again those odds don't Interest me, I'd even find it hard to find any value on the AH as Chelsea could so easily win this 4 or 5 nil but nobody would be suprised to see them win 1 nil , so its another I'm leaving alone.

    I don't see any reason not to back Newcastle at those odds, they are on a bit of a roll and those odds are probably slightly higher than they should be due to Blackburns win against Arsenal, when in all reality Arsenal totally outplayed them in that match and i saw nothing from Blackburn to tell me otherwise that they aren't still shite.
    I fancy Newcastle to beat them by 2 or 3 goals.
    Thats probably the only fixture i have any confdence about this weekend.

    Fulham would look a half decent price if it wasn't for the fact they are shite away from home, they have put in two strong performances this week against City and a strong Chelsea side in the Carling cup, they seem to be on the up whilst the Baggies seem to be going in the other direction, Its a tricky tricky game where Fulham could maybe pinch a point or more but also the sort of game where the baggies could turn around there fortunes, definate no bet for me allthough i have a sneaky feeling for the baggies.

    The way Spurs have kicked on since that drubbing by City lets me want to take a chance on them here, Wigan have become a pretty much run of the mill team and are quite predictable and probably their best player Rodallega being out injured is a big blow for them, but saying that this could be the chance Sammon has been waiting for and he looks the sort of player to take it as he looks fired up every time he comes on as sub but for some reason never seems to get a run in the side.
    Man for Man though Spurs look head and shoulders above Wigan and much to Bashers delight they will see one of Slicks dusty tenners riding on them this weekend.

    I'm hoping Stoke will do to Man U what they do to most sides at the Brittania but I have a feeling hope will be all it is.
    Thsi won't be a walk in the park for United, far from it but how the bloody hell do you stop them scoring?
    Stokes strengths against better sides is to try and nick a goal then defend like fcuk, if that happens then United could destroy them, it worked against Liverpool but just look at the amout of chances Liverpool squandered when chasing the game, United won't do that.
    I won't be touching it as I still have a little bit of hope in Stoke because they do play to the occasion at the Brittania and there is still a small outside chance they could get something from this match, we were talking last week about Uniteds game against Chelsea being thier first real test of the season, well this is Uniteds first real test of the season away from home.

    QPR bet of the weekend at odds on Swoops? I don't know m8, I think your good for a point tell the truth, QPR are floating on air at the moment due to the new players they have but the honeymoon won't last forever.
    I'll go for the draw.
  8. Pete89

    Pete89 Active Member

    Messages:
    518
    I have a couple of value picks from my ratings:

    Man City are a lay under 1.77 (lay price 1.47)
    Newcastle Back 1.81+ (best: 1.91)
    Man Utd lay under 1.63 (current: 1.58)
    Aston Villa back 3.05+ (3.3)
  9. Shel

    Shel New Member

    Messages:
    4
    Just thought I'd add a preview of all games. Hope it's of use...
    [​IMG]Manchester City v [​IMG]Everton
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 12:45 at The Ethiad Stadium
    Saturday’s early kick off sees Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City side take on David Moyes’ gutsy Everton. Following a slightly disappointing 2-2 draw at Fulham, the City boss has been bemoaning his lack of strength in depth in midfield. I’m slightly confused by this considering the amount of money the Italian has spent on midfielders since taking charge.
    If anyone has a right to moan about a lack of players it’s David Moyes. The results he gets from his bare bones squad is quite incredible and it would be interesting to see what he could achieve given the funds Mancini has at his disposal. Coming off the back of a 3-1 home win against Wigan, I expect Everton to cause problems for Man City but it will be a surprise if the home side don’t come out on top.

    [​IMG]Arsenal v [​IMG]Bolton
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 15:00 at The Emirates Stadium
    Could this be considered a relegation six pointer even at this early stage of the season?! Probably not but with both sides in such woeful form, both Arsene Wenger and Owen Coyle are under serious pressure to get some points on the board. The Gunner’s scraped a 1-0 win in their last home game against Swansea but their defending was once again shocking in a 4-3 defeat at the hands of Blackburn Rovers on Saturday.
    Wenger’s panic buying during the recent transfer window appears to have done little to address the club’s serious problems. Bolton have had a tough run of fixtures to start the season but would have expected to collect all three points at home against Norwich so to end up with nothing from the game will have got to the fans making it four league defeats on the bounce. Arsenal are probably going to edge it on balance but this is by no means a confident shout.

    [​IMG]Chelsea v [​IMG]Swansea
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 15:00 at Stamford Bridge
    The away defeat to Manchester Utd was a very strange game for Chelsea and manager Andre Villas-Boas’. Having had the bulk of the chances, Chelsea were unable to turn shots on target into goals and went down to a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Rooney and co. They can take a lot of positives from the performance however and I believe they will improve throughout the season and mount a serious title challenge.
    Swansea scored their first goals of the season and in the process picked up their first win, beating West Brom by three goals to nil. The trip to Stamford Bridge will be a different ball game however and I think they will struggle to get anything here.

    [​IMG]Liverpool v [​IMG]Wolves
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 15:00 at Anfield
    Following some impressive early season results, Liverpool were looking like serious contenders for a top 4 place and Champions League football. Their last couple of results suggest there is still work to be done and while they are likely to be challenging at the upper end of the table, Liverpool are far from a shoe in for the all important 4th place.
    King Kenny will be desperate to erase the memory of the heavy 4-0 loss at White Hart Lane with a win against Wolves. Mick McCarthy’s men also come into this game on the back of two defeats. I fancy the home side to run out comfortable winners.

    [​IMG]Newcastle v [​IMG]Blackburn Rovers
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 15:00 at St. James Park
    Alan Pardew’s Newcastle side continued their unbeaten start to the season with a hard fought point away to Aston Villa on Saturday and it took an in form Shay Given to deny the Toon Army going back to St James Park with all three points. The in form Leon Best scored on 57 minutes to cancel out Agbonlahor’s early goal.
    Blackburn gained a much needed win against Arsenal and took the pressure off manager Steve Kean in their most recent outing. Blackburn should be able to build on that result, especially at home, but I think Newcastle might have just too much for them at St James’.

    [​IMG]West Bromwich Albion v [​IMG]Fulham
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 15:00 at The Hawthorns
    West Brom have had a terrible start to the 2011/12 Premier League season and sit bottom of the table with only three points to their name. Admittedly they have been involved in some tough fixture including Chelsea and Manchester United, but defeats at the hands of Stoke and Swansea makes this encounter will Fulham a huge game for manager Roy Hodgson.
    Fulham are also in the bottom three and don’t have much more to get excited about but a battling performance in the home draw against Manchester City will have lifted some of the doom and gloom around Craven Cottage. This looks very much like it could end in a draw.

    [​IMG]Wigan v [​IMG]Tottenham Hotspur
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 15:00 at The DW Stadium
    Despite some decent early season form, Wigan have shipped six goals in their last two Premiership games and will not be looking forward to the arrival of an in form Tottenham side who are coming off the back of a 4-0 win over Liverpool. Having said that, Roberto Martinez’s side were slightly unlucky against Everton, having held the home team up until the 84th minute.
    Spurs look right back to their best after wins against both Wolves and Liverpool. I strongly fancy them to make it three on the spin this coming weekend.

    [​IMG]Stoke v [​IMG]Manchester United
    Saturday 24th September 2011 KO 17:30 at The Britannia Stadium
    Stoke City’s excellent run this season came to an end with a heavy defeat at the hands of Sunderland on Sunday afternoon. The 4-0 loss probably flattered the home side slightly and I think Sunderland were due a decent win in front of their home fans after a slightly under par run.
    Stoke will be looking to put that game well and truly behind them and they are capable of giving any side a tough match at the Britannia Stadium. Manchester United kept up their 100% record this season with a 3-1 over Chelsea. They have played some amazing football so far but I think this will be a very difficult game for them and Stoke might just be able to take a point off the reining champions.

    [​IMG]Queens Park Rangers v [​IMG]Aston Villa
    Sunday 25th September 2011 KO 16:00 at Loftus Road
    Following some very good looking signings from manager Neil Warnock in the recent transfer window, Queens Park Ranger have managed to move themselves right up the Premier League table and continued a decent run of results with victory over Wolves by three goals to nil.
    The heavy defeat against Bolton on the opening day of the season now seems like a distant memory and QPR appear to have a decent shout of staying in the Premier League next season. Aston Villa are still unbeaten this campaign and manager Alex McLeish has definitely turned round the club’s fortunes since his arrival. That being said, I quietly fancy QPR to continue their good form and inflict Villa’s first defeat of the season.

    [​IMG]Norwich v [​IMG]Sunderland
    Monday 26th September 2011 KO 20:00 at Carrow Road
    The Monday Night Football this week sees Steve Bruce’s Sunderland side travel to a Norwich team full of confidence after an excellent away win at Bolton. Sunderland will also be buoyed after their 4-0 home win over Stoke and will be looking to avoid defeat and put a run of games together after a slightly shaky start to the season.
    I think this will be a close game, and it could well end up with the spoils being shared at the 90 minute mark.
    Punter and MickeyPaul like this.
  10. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,576
    Excellent post Shel and welcome to Betnod, I'm in work at the moment but will read it in full soon as i get the chance.
  11. Shel

    Shel New Member

    Messages:
    4
    Cheers, Slick.
  12. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,212
    Slick,if the odds on city are,as you say "way too short" then can you confirm that you are in fact saying that the draw and or everton are value?

    in a similar vein,while I also welcome shel to betnod,and look forward to his next postings, may I ask that he at least mention the prices and whether he thinks they are value if he is going to assess the games.?

    I realise I will be coming across as churlish...but I just dont see that predicting wins for lpool,city and spurs while stating that stoke " might just be able to get a draw" is of much use.Its the chances of stoke getting a draw and of lpool winning and the true likelihood of city winning etc....

    What actual bets are you doing shel,thats what I find interesting.....:)
  13. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    5,303
    Don't know about that Hotspur, I'd rather have one person on here giving their thoughts in detail without mentioning any bets than 100 people merely giving a list of their bets without any indication as to why they're backing them.
    MickeyPaul likes this.
  14. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,212
    that would of course be a fair point if shel were in fact "giving his thoughts in detail"when,if you read carefully,about 80%of whats been written isnt really his thoughts in detail rather the stating of facts that I would be willing to bet that all soccer fans are aware of mixed with neither here nor there statements eg "qpr have a decent shout of staying up".
    Its not for me to tell people what to post.I merely ask that if someone is going to go to the trouble that shel has gone to,that they ADD their conclusions and the most succinct way to do this is to end with their bet.
    HOWEVER,as long as the post helps somebody on betnod to make money over the weekend,then thats all that matters.:)

    so,if someone does make money from having read something in shels post that swayed them,perhaps they would be kind enough to let me know on monday:beer
  15. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

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    2,212
    in order to be fair to shel, he appears to be saying that the following are value:

    spurs,qpr and liverpool
  16. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,576
    Depends which way you look at it, to me i see a risk in this bet as Everton are Citys bogey team and for as good as City have been performing and the players they have nobody would be suprised to see Everton get a result.
    Citys odds in this fixture chronologically over the last three years have been 1.75, 2.10 and 2.05's now all of a sudden they drop to 1.36's , I wasn't expecting such a drop, in my mind i was thinking maybe 1.5-1.65's , the latter end of that scale would have tempted me to have a wee dabble on this fixture but i won't be touching it at 1.36's , as Swoops mentions at that price it will be a long 90 mins.
    The value probably does like with Everton or the draw. I still think City will win but am i as confident as i would like to be? no.
  17. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

    Messages:
    3,220
    QPR arent odds on Slick, theyre odds against :thinking thats why theyre bet of the weekend IMO
  18. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

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    2,212
    I agree that city at 4-11 are not a value bet.
    I will be on 1-1 at 10.5,0-1 at 27,1-2 at 28 and 0-2 at 70-1:cool:!!.
    actually, I want to take this opportunity to say that I just dont understand why I keep reading on forums(not this one yet!) that the only way you can make money betting on soccer is by working very very hard!?
    With prices like that on betfair-which are CLEARLY value imho, an 8-10% roi is easily obtainable.
    last tuesday I won over a grand on crawley v swindon due to someone offering 90-1 on the 0-3 (and 45-1 on 0-2!!!!incredible).
    what I dont understand is...........why dont all the people who spend hours and hours looking at stats pick up on these prices!!!!?
  19. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,212
    btw,the great thing about betting on outsiders in the premiership is that you only need your team to score first...and hang on for a while to profit...since you can bet in running...
  20. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,212
    actually,may also have small savers on 2-1 and 3-1 as I fancy the toffees to score

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