German football 9/12/11-11/12/11

Div 1 One game tonight, the rest Saturday and Sunday - Odds from Wilhelm von Hill

19:30 UK Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04 7/4 23/10 6/4

10 Dec 14:30 UK FC Koln v Freiburg 6/5 12/5 11/5
10 Dec 14:30 UK Nurnberg v Hoffenheim 13/10 12/5 2/1
10 Dec 14:30 UK Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg 8/13 3/1 4/1
10 Dec 14:30 UK Mainz v Hamburg 6/5 5/2 21/10
10 Dec 14:30 UK Augsburg v Borussia M'gladbach 3/1 12/5 19/20
10 Dec 17:30 UK Hannover v Bayer Leverkusen 8/5 23/10 13/8
11 Dec 14:30 UK Borussia Dortmund v Kaiserslautern 1/4 5/1 10/1
11 Dec 16:30 UK Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 9/2 3/1 4/7

Div 2, three games tonight
17:00 UK Duisburg v Karlsruhe 7/10 13/5 17/5
17:00 UK 1860 Munich v Braunschweig 6/5 23/10 2/1
17:00 UK Paderborn v Hansa Rostock 13/20 5/2 4/ 1


10 Dec 12:00 UK Union Berlin v FSV Frankfurt 13/20 11/4 18/5
10 Dec 12:00 UK Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf 2/1 11/5 5/4
11 Dec 12:30 UK Dynamo Dresden v Energie Cottbus 6/5 5/2 15/8
11 Dec 12:30 UK Ingolstadt v St Pauli 12/5 12/5 EVS
11 Dec 12:30 UK Aachen v Aue 5/6 12/5 3/1
12 Dec 19:15 UK Eintracht Frankfurt v Greuther Furth 17/20 5/2 14/5

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 09.12.2011: TSV 1860 Munchen - Eintracht Braunschweig

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge...11-2012/munich-1860-braunschweig-806355/#ah;2

TSV 1860 Munchen (-0.25)
Odds: 2.02 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 4/10

This bet is actually somehow a no-brainer because of the fact that early odds were correct but now we can grab clearly value odds on the home team. Main reason to go on them is their good recent development, the return of their best striker as well as several vital absences for the guests.

Braunschweig has serious problems in their back four because of the fact that Marcel Correira and Matthias Henn did both lately sustain injuries and will be out for a longer time. Also, regular Benjamin Kessel is still no option due to a red card suspension. Benjamin Fuchs, Deniz Dogan and Jan Washausen move in for the abovementioned players but all these three guys are weaker options. Dogan is decent but he has been out for a long time and still struggles for match practise and form. Fuchs and Washausen are two big weak points in the defence. They are clearly weaker than Henn respectively Correira. Last week this new back four gave its comeback in Ingolstadt where they got a reasonable but lucky 1:0. But Ingolstadt is no criterion because of the fact that Ingolstadt is the most pathetic league team with an offensive which is currently completely out of form.

And today Braunschweig's new back four has one of the most difficult tasks of the league. 1860 and their magic square which consists of vital striker Benny Lauth who returns after having missed their last home game against Frankfurt, Djordje Rakic who is in a brilliant shape, Kevin Volland who is one of the biggest striker talents in Germany and Stefan Aigner who is in a decent shape as well. This is probably the best offensive of the league behind Frankfurt's one. This offensive vs. Braunschweig new back four should be a big advantage for the home side.

Another reason why I see 1860 beig much stronger in this period of the season is the return of defender Necat Aygün some weeks ago. Since he is part of the back four again, they improved a lot because he is vital for them with his great ball winning ability.

Another point which should be taken into account is that Braunschweig would be really happy with a draw here. As a promoted team they travel to one of the strongest league teams and a draw would be more than fine for them. All in all, 1860 has significantly more quality in the team, they are full-strength which is more than you can say for Braunschweig and they recently convinced. These odds are the definition of value odds and are hence a no-brainer.

FT 3:0

+ 4.24 u

The match wasnt as clear as the result may suggest but 1860 proved that they are more clinical and have much better strikers. Braunschweig wouldn't have lost this with their regular back four but how I wrote in the preview, their missings in the defence are too grave. Braunschweig fired a lot from downtown and wasn't dangerous with this whereas 1860 were simply clinical and proved their offensive qualities.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 10.12.2011: Union Berlin - FSV Frankfurt

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/union-berlin-fsv-frankfurt-806353/

Union Berlin (-0.75)
Odds: 1.79(PinnacleSports)
Stake: 6/10

Union Berlin at home against a weak team is almost always a bet on Union Berlin as well as it will be today. Union Berlin are still a little bit overrated, hence it is always easy to get value bets on them. Berlin are known as being very strong hosts with a fanatic home crowd and all their home displays in this season have been good so far. Nevertheless the difference between Union Berlin and the top teams of the league is still that Berlin has some defence problems and hence they are not yet able to beat a top team. Thus they lost at home against the top teams Greuther Furth and St Pauli but at home against weak and defensive-minded teams, they do always very well. Besides being full strength, this will be the case when they will host against one of the weakest teams of the league. Frankfurt will allow them having a lot of ball possession and these are perfect circumstances for Union. They love to make the running due to their great technical ability and playing against teams which rather use defensive minded approaches is pretty positive for them because of the fact that their back four which is they little weak point will not be pressured too much.

The technical ability of Union is absolutely superb. The South American strikers John Jairo Mosquera and Silvio are great footballers, also they have the best free kick scorer Thorsten Mattuschka in their team who is a brilliant playmaker. When they faced weak teams like Ingolstadt, Aachen, Karlsruhe, etc at home, they always did very well and won deservedly with a few goals difference. Also being full-strength is something very special for them due to the fact that they struggled with big injury worries earlier in this season.

Frankfurt is a team with decent potential but they lack fighting spirit and a good conversion of chances. Their quality in the team has to be seen as clearly lower than Union's one and they face a big crisis. Recently they improved a little bit with getting two draws in a row but the way how they did away against Dresden, who are clearly weaker than Berlin by the way, was not convincing at all. The 2:2 was lucky and advantaged by a lucky own goal as well as a doubtful penalty. Besides, they face big internal problems as well due to the fact that there are some conflicts between manager Boysen who is in doubt with his players. Frankfurt will struggle against relegation until the last match of the season I am pretty sure whereas Union Berlin is one of the best home teams in this league.

Union loves opponents like Frankfurt who are passive and weak, they will be allowed to make the running with a full-strength side in front of their fantastic home crowd and hence they should easily win this. Frankfurt must be really lucky to get a draw from Berlin but among normal circumstances, I do not see them having any chance to get something from the capital. A good home team with much more quality, an opponent who is perfect for them and in fact a club where the whole situation is great against a poor relegation canidate which faces a crisis. Correct line is -1 here and nothing else, excellent chance to win with more than one goal because the always win clearly against pathetic teams. Big confidence and how I already mentioned, circumstances must be very unlucky for Berlin today if they shouldnt win this.

FT 4:0

+ 4.98 u

I did not see the match because I was in Mainz to support my club (Hamburg), hence no idea whether it was deserved or not but 4:0 sounds like it was a strong bet.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 11.12.2011: Dynamo Dresden - Energie Cottbus

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/dresden-energie-cottbus-806351/#ah;2

Dynamo Dresden (-0.25)
Odds: 2.04 (SBOBet)
Stake: 5/10

If we just compare team strengths of both teams today, Dresden has more quality. It should be added that the home advantage in Dresden is a massive one and Cottbus has big internal problems as well as their whole back four will be out.

First of all, a few sentences about Dynamo. I appreciate them as a team which always plays with maximal effort and which is good in attacking fast. They were very unlucky not to win against Frankfurt last week at home where they have clearly been disadvantaged by the referee. Generally their offensive is a really good one and their technical ability is outstanding for a team which actually struggles against relegation. They never have problems to create goal chances, always play with huge effort and have two fantastic strikers, named Zlatko Dedic and Mickael Pote. If Dresden plays against weak sides with weak defences, they always create tons of high quality chances, not by chance they trashed Karlsruhe 5:1 at home several weeks ago and last week they would have deserved to win as well. Good midfielder Robert Koch will be out due to a yellow lock, still this shouldnt be the biggest deal ever because the quality of Marcel Heller who is likely to replace him is roughly equal.

Besides appreciating Dresden as a strong home team with a really good technical ability and powerful offensive, I must admit that this is rather a bet against Cottbus than one on Dresden. Cottbus has to recover from a big shock. On Thursday, their long-term manager Pele Wollitz who was like a friend to his players suprisingly announced that he abandons his team and will be new manager of his former club Osnabrück. Nobody expected that and it was a big shock for this very young team for sure. Former assistant coach of Wollitz, Markus Feldhoff, will take the seat on the bench ad interim. The team has a big lack of self confidence anyway but the fact that their charismatic manager Wollitz abandons his club three days before this match will for sure not help them to improve their self confidence.

But the still bigger reason to go against them will be their lower team quality today which is caused by injuries. The whole defence will be out for today's match. Besides long-term injured player Markus Brenzska, Uwe Hünemeier and Christoph Schorch will miss this game with injuries. Their back four against Dresden consists of Daniel Ziebig, Roger, Julian Börner and Konstantin Engel. Ziebig is not good but at least decent. Roger rarely has good games, usually he is an instability factor but his form lately improved some. Howsoever, Börner is totally unexperienced and at least one class weaker than Schorch. Engel is one of the weakest defenders in this league, he is extremely poor and I promise you that Dresden will owe him a few nice goal chances.

So we can summarize that Cottbus will have an extremely bad back four prior to this match. Perhaps even the worst back four of the league besides Karlsruhe's one. Börner together with Engel, that sounds really very, very poor. But this is still not everything. Their superb goalkeeper Thorsten Kirschbaum sustained an injury in the training and will be replaced by second goalkeeper Rene Renno which is another big downgrade because of the fact that Kirschbaum is a really good goalkeeper. As if this wasn't enough, their only quality striker in the squad and the only player of Cottbus who has superb quality, Dimitar Rangelov, is a serious doubt prior to this match and he has to use a splint on his hand which could potentially affect his performance quality.

So what will we see today? A hot derby match where Dresden should be clearer favourites. With regard to the team quality, Dresden is better and will have better individual players today. Also they are well-matched whereas Cottbus' back four has never played together in this formation so far. Furthermore, Dresden has one of the most fanatic home crowds in this league and the home advantage is a massive one. Last but not least Cottbus' very young team (the youngest one of the league) will still suffer from the big shock of the Wollitz-leaving which should be taken into consideration as well. So we have much better team atmosphere on the home side, better team quality, strong offensive vs. an extremely poor defence and a big home advantage and still we can grab such nice odds on the home team. Just a gift which we will for sure not miss out.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 11.12.2011: Alemannia Aachen - Erzgebirge Aue

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/alemannia-aachen-aue-806350/#ah;2

Erzgebirge Aue (+0.5)
Odds: 2.12 (SBOBet)
Stake: 4/10

In this season, Aachen did not yet show me enough to justify being such a clear favourite in this match. This game will be much more even than odds do suggest. The market overreacts because Aue was smashed 6:0 in Bochum last week but the result was misleading back then. Aue was not as bad as the result might suggest, quite the opposite, they showed a good away performance and should have actually taken the lead but Bochum scored several crazy goals through distance shots, free kicks from big distance and so on. After having been 3:0 behind in the half time, Aue gave up and still conceded the 4:0, 5:0 and 6:0.

Howsoever, I wrote last week that Aue are fine travellers who do better away than at home. They really have strong wings with Hochscheidt, Kempe and Kocer and König as the tall striker who is brilliant in the air by the way. This system is a good one: many crosses to König, huge effort and several distance shots. Aue is for sure not one of these technical high skilled teams which practise short passing play in a brilliant way or so but their strategy serves the purpose in away matches and that is the important thing. They always create many, many good goal chances in away matches and they have simply been a bit unlucky against clinical and more experienced sides in the past like for instance in Bochum 7 days ago.

But now they meet against another unexperienced and "stupid" team: Alemannia Aachen. Aachen is known for commiting several bad defence errors as well and they do not have a good conversion of chances. Also they are simply not a good team, they struggle with creating goal chances and are not good in breaking through deep defences which would be essential against Aue this time. They lately got two acceptable draws against Duisburg (2:2) and 1860 (2:2) but in both matches they have actually been nowhere near winning.

Both teams have no mentionable absences but important is that Aue convinced more in away matches than Aachen did in home games so far. Team quality is pretty even, hard to say which team is the better one. Aue will lack self confidence after this 6:0 in Bochum but how I already mentioned above, the result was misleading and they actually showed another good away display. The 6:0 smashing will not prevent me from keeping on taking Aue as an underdog in away games because I appreciate them as being really nice travellers who are able to do very well when playing on the road.

Aachen may not be such a clear favourite against a team which has at least equal quality (I even think that Aue is the slightly better side) and Aachen are poor in making the running and they generally are no good hosts whereas Aue are decent travellers. Hence I am glad to take these value odds on the guest side.

13 picks of 14 won recently in this league, I hope I can keep it on.

FT 1:1

+ 4.68 u

I watched the match the whole 90 minutes and it was a completely fair result. First half, Aachen was slightly better and in the second Aue was better. Still a bit lucky when Aachen's striker Aue had a big chance in the last minute of the game and when Aue's goalkeeper made a superb save.

FT 2:1

+ 5.35 u

I did not watch the match, hence no idea whether it was deserved or not. But according to statistics and live ticker, Dresden was the better team and deserved to win.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 12.12.2011: Eintracht Frankfurt - Greuther Furth

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge...ntracht-frankfurt-greuther-furth-806349/#ah;2

Greuther Furth (+0.5)
Odds: 2.01 (SBOBet)
Stake: 5/10

I remember the first game between these two teams in this season very well when Furth were the clearly better team, was 2:0 in front but still lost 2:3 through a last minute goal of Frankfurt. Howsoever this was 5 months ago and meanwhile Frankfurt improved a lot. Still, I do not think that it is justified that they are such clear favourites prior to this match. Exactly 14 days ago I took Dusseldorf -0.25 @2.00 at home vs. Furth and now Frankfurt get -0.5 at even smaller price although I rate Dusseldorf as the superior team at home. This does not make any sense and Furth recently improved some. In Dusseldorf, Furth were very unfocussed in the first half which was probably due to their lack of experience but they took lessons from it and showed a great second half where they were very close to equalise.

Frankfurt will mainly face two big problems today. The first problem is the absence of their superior striker Mo Idrissou who is in my opinion the best player of the league. The key to success against Furth is to have good individual players in the offensive and Furth also does not like to play against fast attackers. But Frankfurt's system is based on strong wing player and therefore many crosses through their wingers Constantin Djakpa, Sebastian Rode and Benjamin Köhler. This is much more easy for Furth to defend. Furth's defence is actually a very strong one but their central defenders Mergim Mavraj and Thomas Kleine do both have a big lack of swiftness. They are brilliant in the air but it is hard for them to defend against teams who use a lot of flat passes through the middle but Frankfurt's system is rather based on crosses how I already mentioned.

Furth is a team which is perfect in breaking fast and using turnovers of the opponent to counter attack. Frankfurt makes a very unfocussed impression since several weeks due to their arrogance and players like Djakpa are known as being ones who produce many unnecessary turnovers. The next crucial advantage for Furth could be Frankfurt's defence. Gordon Schildenfeld is slow and definitely Frankfurt's weak point. Bamba Anderson is actually one of my favourite players but he struggles with an injury and has a lack of form in general. Also I see a lot of potential for Furth to break fast through their right wing. Furth has Sercan Sararer, the "Arjen Robben of 2. Bundesliga", who plays on the right wing whereas Frankfurt's left back is the very offensive minded player Djakpa who does not really care for defending. His positional play is not the best at all and he will give Sararer a lot of chances on the right wing.

And generally Frankfurt recently made a much too comfortable impression during the past few weeks. For instance they were 2:0 and 3:1 in front against poor side Aachen at home but due to inactivity, Aachen still got back 3:3 and Frankfurt was lucky to win the match 4:3 through a last minute goal. Generally Frankfurt has shown a bad tendency since end of October/November. They only got a very lucky 1:1 in Ingolstadt through a last minute goal, were very lucky to win 2:1 in Aue with another last minute goal, they won 4:3 against Aachen with scoring in the 90th minute too and then they were punished for playing arrogant in Munich where they lost 2:1. Last week they recovered from their first season defeat with beating the worst team of the league (Karlsruhe) 2:0.

Hence, Frankfurt acts too arrogant and they do not do so well as the odds might suggest. Their defence is worse than Furth's one and Furth's good counter ability will be a very positive point against Frankfurt's very slow defence. In terms of tactic and discipline, Furth is superior, too. The only point which argues against Furth tonight is Furth's lack of experience, the fact that they usually lose top clashes and their defence which does not make the best impression at the moment. But Furth can easily score 1 or 2 goals here and Frankfurt are not strong enough to justify being such a strong favourite here.

FT 0:0

+ 5.10 u

Furth would have deserved to win this but their player Prib made the missing of the century when hitting the posts of 5m distance although the goal was empty and he did not have any pressure. Frankfurt with one good header of Gekas and this was everything. Frankfurt was lucky to win a point here. Bet won anyway.