Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by Yorkieacer, Sep 27, 2011.
as i said im no expert on the big games for the simple fact the mug money screws everything, you could liken the odds plunge on utd to a stockmarket bubble where folk chase the money, it never pays to bet the market rather than the event.
pretty awesome aftertiming from me here i know but i didnt lose, wasnt my kind of game.
the markets typically are the sum total of everybodies opinion of an event added together, when it isnt then beware. unless you've got balls of granite and want to straight lay united at 1.01 when 2 up at ht that is.. you know most of the money laid at those odds would be folk trading out.
Sign of the times, innit?
before the final hurdle/fence....and in the place market they regularly hit 1.03/1.04 with 2 to jump if they are far enough clear. In the past you could back them at much bigger, but with the number of on-course sharks increasing rapidly they are forced to go shorter in desperation to get to the front of the queue.
That couldn't be further from the truth, Spacey.
I never said that. With all the changes (more on-course competition, less cannon-fodder players, premium charges etc) the days where the track players were making 5-figure sums every week are long gone, but I personally know around half a dozen guys who are still making it pay (enough to cover the considerable expenses and leave a decent profit) so the stronger/more talented are still going strong despite Betfair doing their best to eradicate them.
There are also people like myself who play from home who continue to beat the odds, but you have to move with the times to keep ahead of the changing dynamics which threaten to upset the applecart and destroy your edge.
Betfair ideally want no consistent winners and no consistent losers - they want everyone to win,lose,win,lose,win,lose so the money keeps going back and forth between accounts with commission slowly eating away at it - the more it's turned over the more they make and the less chance of the losers giving up and walking away.
Which makes a mockery of their early slogan (which they have conspicuously dropped).....
"Betfair - where winners are welcome"
inplay is the way to go in my eyes for football, doing anything else with the sport is retarded as the markets are locked down pretty tight, the only way to get an advantage over them is to actually watch a bloody game. every possible stat, opinion and gut instinct possible has gone into forming a footy market, unless you can beat the consumed knowledge of several hundred/thousand people then stay clear, watch a game and see whats really going on.
beginners chase, so these were inexperienced jumpers, just what kind of desperate fool takes such short odds when they still had 2 to jump? Unbelievable.
the arsenal-spurs game this weekend will see all sorts of stupid bets, over 2.5 goals will be hammered for non sporting reasons. folk want to see a good game, so pile on goals like retards. really it should be laid and then backed 10 minutes in when people see both teams being a bit cagey and they over-react the other way.
im shite at horse racing, having watched thousands of races im still totally clueless when it comes to reading whats going on. i also find it completly mental that people throw cash into a sport that wouldnt exist without losing mug punters like spastics... the books sponsor about 75% of races, how much of a fucking hint do you need.
betfair do want people to win-lose-win-lose, the old books running horse racing want everyone losing bar a handful of small winners to incentify the losers to keep going.
betfair actually need those types to an extent aswell, which is why the PC takes such abuse
The original 20% PC was bad enough, but the new 60% one is just unbelievable.
there wont be many hit but those that are will make sure the rest of us know about it, god knows what the future holds.
My lifetime charges are currently at 21.54% so I'm avoiding it at the moment but my usual weekly commission is now around 10% so obviously my lifetime charge is decreasing towards the 20% cut-off point. I've paid almost £8,500 in commission/PC to BF over the years, and believe me I'm no big-staking punter, just a disciplined and careful one, yet the greedy fuckers want more.