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NPower League Two - 13th August

Kegman

Kegman

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Saturday 13th August 2011
Acc. Stanley 6/4 Draw 9/4 Southend 13/8
Aldershot Town 5/4 Draw 23/10 Northampton 15/8
Barnet 6/4 Draw 12/5 Port Vale 6/4
Bristol Rov 10/11 Draw 12/5 Torquay 11/4
Burton Albion 6/4 Draw 12/5 Shrewsbury 6/4
Cheltenham 2/1 Draw 12/5 Swindon 11/10
Crawley Town 4/9 Draw 3/1 Macclesfield 11/2
Crewe 7/5 Draw 23/10 Gillingham 6/4
Dagenham 6/5 Draw 23/10 AFC Wimbledon 2/1
Hereford 6/5 Draw 23/10 Morecambe 2/1
Oxford 4/5 Draw 5/2 Bradford 3/1
Plymouth 11/8 Draw 12/5 Rotherham 7/4

odds from skybet
 
Several of these seem possibilities for looking at a bit closer after team news and the outcomes of the Carling Cup matches (for those lucky enough to have their CC games played, anyway :mad: ). A few of the 'better' sides stumbled to draws on Saturday, so it might be another weekend of low risk double chance/DNB options for me.

I can see Aldershot being an overs team this season, and Northampton have a decent attack as well, so overs at better than evens might be good.
 
I'd love to hear from anyone who knows how Crawley performed on Saturday. They are the big favourites in this league but let a lead slip with a late goal to draw. You'd expect a team who are perceived to be as strong as they are to do better than that early doors.

If teams see that they are vulnerable, they will take confidence from that and they may be too short a price based on overestimating their potential, despite the money they spend.
 
My understanding is that Crawley were a bit unlucky - Vale's equaliser came when Crawley were (unluckily) down to ten men. The stats show an even match in terms of shots and posession, although Crawley won the corner count easily. Quote from Crawley's manager was along the lines of, "If that's the standard of League Two we'll be all right."
 
Thanks mate. That's just the sort of info I was after:thumb So we get the impression that it was a hitch rather than Crawley just no being up to scratch then.

Good to know.
 
Aldershot, Barnet and Plymouth were all tempters for me at odds against but the two I’ve gone with are Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 at home to Torquay and Swindon @ 23/20 away at Cheltenham.

It was a tricky tie for Rovers opening fixture down at Wimbledon but they came away with a 3-2 win. Both teams only had 4 shots on target but Rovers had 11 compared to ‘dons 4 shots off target.
Torquay were at home to Burton and did well to get a draw from 0-2 down, but Burton had 56% possession and had 10 chances off target compared to Torquay’s 4. Both teams had 5 shots on target. I just don’t think Torquay will be anywhere near as good as last season and Burton wont be much cop either this season. Rovers should win this and I think we’re lucky to be getting odds against for a home win here, I’ll go as far as shouting them as my weekend banker.

Swindon for possible promotion and Cheltenham for relegation has been the thoughts from a few pre season, a local derby narrows it a bit but I expect Di Canio’s Swindon to just edge it and be top of the league Saturday night.
 
I'll go along with both Punter's picks. I'm not ruling out covering the draws but that's probably just overcaution.
 
Crawley should of won last weekend but let it slip, they were down to 10 men at the time though. In the local paper this week the con artist has said they should of won and he's disappointed that they didnt get the 3 points and this week they will take the 3 points and play more attacking football in there first league match at home. Odds are going to be poor on Crawley all seaason at home unless the lose like 8 in a row, but 4/9 looks good so 6pts on them for me, may also look at the handicap as well.

Another price that catches my eye is Bristol Rovers @ 10/11 i picked them out on tdp as the side to win the title this season and they opened up with a 3-2 win against Wimbledon away. Torquay had to come down from 2-0 against Burton to get a draw last weekend and got thrashed 4-1 to Southampton in the league cup last night so 10/11 looks a good price.

Also looking at Oxford but will have to research that match more
 
Crawley are coming in a bit; I thought they started off a bit short, but they're now the right side of 1/2 which I think is beginning to took like value.

Oxford are off my list as they had a two hour game last night whick may take a toll, and apparently Bradford were impressive in losing to Leeds after their inept display on Saturday (although I prefer to think that Aldershot made them look bad :wink ). I'm not sure about Oxford's injuries either - new star signing Leven could only make the bench again. I think Oxford are still favourites, but I think the price is too short.

I'm also looking at Wimbledon - at first glance the 5/2 in a couple of places seems a tad generous. Shrewsbury and Rotherham also look tempting, and I'd be interested in Punter's views on Hereford.
 
We'll have 'em back next week Thunder' :)

You not take that 5/2 about Wimbledon in the end?
 
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