ODM's football bets 2011/2012

You know what it's like with New Years resolutions or a new diary or a World Cup wallchart? Where you start off with the best of intentions and then can't be arsed with it after a week.

That's me that is.

Saturday 20th August

Forest to beat Leicester 8/5 bluesq 20 points

Laying Derby v Doncaster to win 25pts or lose 22.3

Can't chose between Peterborough and Ipswich but being the true pro punter that I am, I'll have to have a bet on it cos it's on Telly

Peterborough's home advantage may see them scrape a home win but I'm on for the draw 10pts to win 25.25 on betfair

http://www.betnod.com/threads/npower-championship-20-21st-aug-2011.91/

Sod the links, I may as well post the whole posts in here

The markets do some strange things based on the opening games of the season and this has never been better demonstrated than with Leicester City this season. After game one, they were nailed on for promotion, probably picking up the title on the way - to hear people talk.

At the other end of the scale, Forest didn't have ONE SINGLE SHOT ON TARGET in their first two games, but went on to win game three at a nice enough price of 13/10 (Boylesports).

There is only one real East Midlands derby, and this isn't it. Leicester are rocking and Forest are at home. Their price is 8/5 (bluesquare) and drifting elsewhere and it's a price that I'll be taking advantage of with a 20pt win.

By exactly the same logic, I'll be laying Derby v Doncaster to win 25pts or lose 22.3

Can't chose between Peterborough and Ipswich but being the true pro punter that I am, I'll have to have a bet on it cos it's on Telly

Peterborough's home advantage may see them scrape a home win but I'm on for the draw 10pts to win 25.25 on betfair

...and I know I'm not going to be the only one suckered into backing West Ham against Leeds on Sunday 25 pts at 3/4 with William Hill.

Despite them scoring goals, I'm not convinced by Leeds and I still see them ending up closer to the bottom of the table than the top come the end of the season. Having conceded six goals in three games and away to a quasi-premiership team, you can see why the over 2.5 goal price is odds on but I'll give it a go at 8/11 for 20 points.

Incidentally, the price is the same for both teams to score if you fancy that instead.​

Response

I was tempted into looking at Pompey too mate. From what I've seen of them, they're going to be top half this season. Coming from behind twice on the opening day showed decent character but I was more impressed by them beating Reading who are no mugs themselves. I confess I was swayed by Bristol's midweek result and I shouldn't have been. You're right, 2/1 has to be value and I'm going with it for 10 points.

I'm hoping to get the day off to a flyer with a Sunderland win. I thought Bruce brought in some very shrewd signings and their performance last week just reinforced the view that they will do well this season (top 8?). I've had a cheeky handicap bet on them on betfair at 10/1 for the season and I'm going to add to that by backing them to beat Newcastle, who I can see struggling this season (Bottom 6?)

6/5 Coral and William Hill. 20pts for me.

Looking forward to the Arsenal Liverpool game. Couldn't even begin to call it so I'm going to play it in-running. if Liverpool get the first goal it will be interesting. As well as the much publicised gaps in their playing staff that need plugging, to me, most of their downfall stems from not having a leader (or leaders) on the field.

Could you really see an Arsenal side giving a four nill lead away with Tony Adams in the side? He's have banged their fucking heads together and got them moving. They look like a bunch of nancy boy kids playing kickabout. All smiles when the tricks and flicks are coming off but sulking like fannies when it goes wrong.

Whoever scores the first goal wins.

We have a head to head situation folks, in the shape of Swansea (Winrew) v Wigan (Keema) Can I throw my hat in for the draw:laugh

I have to say that I see both sides of this debate in that I agree with keem that too many people have made too much about Swansea's performance against City. They were fucking battered - end of, and all this pissballing about tapping the ball to each other shouldn't disguise that fact. It's often the case that losing sides have a amount of possession. It's obvious that the side who are winning have no need to waste their energy closing them down and trying to take the ball off them, especially when -as in this case - they are so superior that they can just wait for them to lose possession and then take the ball up the other end and score.

As far as I'm concerned you can just put a line straight through Swansea's performance on Monday. They need to be judged against sides in the bottom twelve or so, as that is their battle ground and any points taken from the top 7 is icing on the cake for them.

Their season starts tomorrow. We will know more about them after that but I have to say i see no reason why they can't get the better of Wigan. 6/5 is way, way too short for me to be sticking my dosh on them though. No bet for me.​

Blackburn one of the teams to go down for me but Villa's price at 3/4 is not tempting enough. Likewise Chelsea at home to West brom is way too short at 3/10.

Stoke will do well this year, having built on a couple of solid years in the top flight. The only thing that stops me from lumping on the away win on Sunday is their Thursday game in Europe yesterday. Mmmm. No telling what impact that will have so I'll go for a lay of Norwich to win 20pts or lose 34.9

Copying rough odds for possible future reference and comparison - I'll post the results up at the end of the weekend

Saturday 20th August 2011
12:00 Sunderland 2.10 Draw 3.30 Newcastle 3.50
12:45 Arsenal 2.50 Draw 3.25 Liverpool 2.80
15:00 Everton 1.53 Draw 3.75 Q.P.R. 6.00
15:00 Swansea 2.20 Draw 3.40 Wigan 3.10
15:00 Aston Villa 1.73 Draw 3.50 Blackburn 4.50
17:30 Chelsea 1.28 Draw 5.00 West Brom 11.00
Sunday 21st August 2011
13:30 Norwich 2.37 Draw 3.30 Stoke 2.87
14:00 Wolves 2.37 Draw 3.30 Fulham 2.87
16:00 Bolton 4.75 Draw 3.60 Man. City 1.73
Monday 22nd August 2011
20:00 Man. Utd 1.57 Draw 3.75 Tottenham 5.50

Saturday 20th August 2011
15:00 Brighton 2.20 Draw 3.30 Blackpool 3.30
15:00 Bristol City 2.40 Draw 3.30 Portsmouth 2.87
15:00 Burnley 2.50 Draw 3.30 Cardiff 2.75
15:00 Coventry 2.50 Draw 3.30 Watford 2.75
15:00 Derby 1.73 Draw 3.75 Doncaster 4.50
15:00 Hull 1.83 Draw 3.50 Crystal Palace 4.33
15:00 Nottm. Forest 2.50 Draw 3.25 Leicester 2.80
15:00 Reading 1.57 Draw 3.75 Barnsley 6.00
15:00 Southampton 1.83 Draw 3.50 Millwall 4.33
17:20 Peterborough 2.40 Draw 3.30 Ipswich 2.87
Sunday 21st August 2011
13:15 West Ham 1.73 Draw 3.75 Leeds 4.50
15:00 Middlesbrough 2.25 Draw 3.30 Birmingham 3.20

Total Disaster for me. 132.2 pts lost on the day.

Ah, I see Stoke scored a late equaliser so that makes a mere loss of 77.3 pts

Saturday, 20 August 2011
Barclays Premier League
Arsenal 0-2 Liverpool | Report
Aston Villa 3-1 Blackburn | Report
Chelsea 2-1 West Brom | Report
Everton 0-1 QPR | Report
Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle | Report
Swansea 0-0 Wigan | Report

Sunday, 21 August 2011
Barclays Premier League
Bolton 2-3 Man City | Report
Norwich 1-1 Stoke | Report
Wolverhampton 2-0 Fulham | Report

Npower Championship
Brighton 2-2 Blackpool | Report
Bristol City 0-0 Portsmouth | Report
Burnley 1-1 Cardiff | Report
Coventry 0-0 Watford | Report
Derby 3-0 Doncaster | Report
Hull 0-1 Crystal Palace | Report
Nott'm Forest 2-2 Leicester | Report
Peterborough 7-1 Ipswich | Report
Reading 1-2 Barnsley | Report
Southampton 1-0 Millwall | Report


Npower Championship
Middlesbrough 3-1 Birmingham | Report
West Ham 2-2 Leeds | Report

looks like I'm going to need it mate.

I don't see United slipping up against Spurs and I think they will also romp the league but as they are too short to back outright at less than 2/1 I'm going to back them at every opportunity and I'm on for 60 pts at 4/6 tonight.

I'm on Nani s goal minutes too (bought at 18) but I'm not keeping a record of those in this thread.

I think Spurs are overpriced at 2/1 so it's worth a risk. 20pts for me.

I've already layed Newcastle against Fulham at around 4/5 to win 40 pts

WBA v Stoke looks like a draw to me so I'll take 12/5 for 30 pts with a view to laying the draw at evens after 70something minutes to get 20 back.

Man U v Arsenal - At the risk of repeating myself, I think United with walk the league this year but this is one game they might just fail to win at home. 7/2 is just a stupid price for me for the draw. 20pts for me

I haven't seen anything but hype and bullshit around West Ham's campaign this season. All the talk about how they were going to bounce straight back up looks to be just hot air. Bottom line - they're shit.

Forest at 9/5 25pts

I'll also be risking 10pts on Birmingham at Watford at 11/5

Saturday 27th August 2011
12:05 Aston Villa evens Draw 12/5 Wolves 11/4
12:30 Wigan 5/4 Draw 12/5 Q.P.R. 21/10
15:00 Blackburn 21/10 Draw 9/4 Everton 13/10
15:00 Chelsea 2/9 Draw 5/1 Norwich 12/1
15:00 Swansea 11/8 Draw 9/4 Sunderland 2/1
17:30 Liverpool 2/5 Draw 7/2 Bolton 7/1

Sunday 28th August 2011
13:00 Newcastle evens Draw 12/5 Fulham 11/4
13:30 Tottenham 7/4 Draw 9/4 Man. City 6/4
15:00 West Brom 11/10 Draw 12/5 Stoke 12/5
16:00 Man. Utd 4/9 Draw 10/3 Arsenal 6/1

Saturday 27th August 2011
15:00 Brighton 10/11 Draw 12/5 Peterborough 12/5
15:00 Crystal Palace 11/8 Draw 12/5 Blackpool 6/4
15:00 Derby 6/5 Draw 11/5 Burnley 2/1
15:00 Doncaster 5/4 Draw 23/10 Bristol City 7/4
15:00 Hull 13/10 Draw 12/5 Reading 13/8
15:00 Ipswich 5/4 Draw 23/10 Leeds 7/4
15:00 Leicester 5/4 Draw 23/10 Southampton 7/4
15:00 Middlesbro' 8/11 Draw 5/2 Coventry 3/1
15:00 Millwall 2/3 Draw 11/4 Barnsley 3/1
15:00 Portsmouth 7/5 Draw 23/10 Cardiff 6/4
Sunday 28th August 2011
:15 Nottm. Forest 7/5 Draw 23/10 West Ham 6/4
15:00 Watford 7/5 Draw 23/10 Birmingham 6/4