ODM's ratings and stats 2012/13

I have a history of getting bored after four weeks of the season or less and abandoning all the "great" ideas that I've had for football betting over the summer months, but I've had a little tinker with my own ratings for the Premiership this season. I know there is scant knowledge of how the changes of managers and players will manifest themselves in the coming season but the main aim is for me to try and spot any market overreactions as the season goes on, versus what my actual stats are telling me. Team news will not make up any part of my ratings but may influence my decision on whether or not to put down my money. Personally, I think reactions to players missing are often over-reactions.

I won't go into the mechanics of it all but I'll highlight the areas where my stats either vary or reinforce bookies opinion.

Starting today, I have all the same teams as favourites as the bookies do in every game (no surprise there) and I agree with them that the Newcastle Spurs game is a very open one where any of the three results are possible. With that in mind (and another stat which I'll copy and paste my earlier post from another thread below) I'm going for the draw.

Where my ratings disagree with the bookies are on the prices of each fav. Most prices are well too short (especially given the element of the unknown which is inevitable in the early stages of a new season).

Arsenal, Fulham, QPR, Liverpool, Chelsea, City, United, all too short for me. I've already covered the Newcastle Spurs game which leaves two others. West Ham are only slightly shorter than I have them, with 5/4 available according to Oddschecker and the only favourite which is a higher price than my ratings is Reading to beat Stoke.

Therefore my three rating bets for the day are:

20pts Newcastle Spurs Draw 12/5
20pts Reading to beat Stoke 29/20
10pts WHU to beat Villa 5/4

Post from earlier - I wouldn't put anyone off backing the draw in the Liverpool game. Just my personal opinion putting me off

For those who believe in statistics, draws occur in around 1 in 3 games. Man City last drew a league game 10 games ago. Given that they play a newly promoted team on the first day of the season at home , the 13/2 available at Betfred may not seems tempting enough but I remember Fulham's first ever game in the Premiership a decade ago and it was at Old Trafford. They did end up losing but but up an almighty battle and only lost by the odd goal in five. Worth bearing in mind.

Others to consider are Liverpool (last drew 12 games ago) at West Brom. I think Liverpool have the players to do well this season (Top 4) so I won't be touching it but as draw betting goes, there are worse strategies than picking a game with a short priced away team.

By far the best bet for a draw though has to be Newcastle and Spurs. For the first time ever, I've had a go at compiling my own odds and the bookies odds for this game are spot on with mine which means that we agree that it's a tough game to call a winner. Spurs had a great season last year (fading towards the end) but so did Newcastle and their home form is something to be feared. The stats say that Newcastle last drew 13 games ago (the highest number of games without a draw in all divisions) so I'm happy to throw my wonga at the draw.

10 pts 12/5 bet365.

Just to add that if the scores are level any time after around 75 minutes in the Newcastle Spurs game, I will be backing another goal at evens for 20 pts as a saver.

Small profit on day one of 2.50 points. Got my stake back on the Spurs game and a west ham win.

Moving on to next week's games, my prices are spot on with the bookies for the Swansea West Ham, Villa Everton, Norwich QPR, Southampton Wigan and Liverpool Man City games. Chelsea, United, Sunderland, Spurs and Arsenal all look too short compared to my figures but their opponents make no appeal either which means I'm stuck without a bet.

Going back to the "games since a draw" stats, there were 12 teams in all divisions who hadn't drawn in their last 7 games before this weekend. Five of them drew, which obviously meant a massive profit if you backed them all.

The ones remaining in the premiership are
Newcastle 13 games
QPR 13 games
Liverpool 11 games
Man City 10 games
Wigan 11 games

Liverpool and Man City play each other so that's a stand out for me, and I may as well throw the others in too.

20 pts Liv Man City 5/2
10 pts Norwich QPR 5/2
10pts Soton Wigan 11/4
10pts Chelsea Newcastle 18/5 (what sort of stupid price is that?)

A sixth one drew last night (Chesterfield). Five of the remaining ones are above and, in the interest of passing on information, the other one is Kidderminster who are away to Dartford on Saturday.

My 30 points played so far this weekend have returned 35 with the Norwich QPR draw, so another small profit and with the Liverpool City game to play today for -20 or +50.

I've looked at my stats for next week and I have some definite plays. You need to bear in mind that these are based on pure numbers and prices and are nothing to do with opinion, team news, or anything else.

West Ham to beat Fulham 20 pts 6/4
Swansea to beat Sunderland 20 pts 5/4
Wigan to beat Stoke 20 pts 13/10


Back to the draw stats
Newc and Villa to draw 10 pts 14/5


Wigan are on schedule to draw soon and no doubt, knowing my luck, next Saturday will be the one but I already have them in my ratings to back to win so I'll have to let that ride.

I'll also be putting 20 pts on Liverpool and Arsenal to draw at 12/5

90 pts staked

Liverpool and City draw makes the profit after two weeks 57.5 points. Not too shabby

It just had to happen didn't it ?

The 60pts staked yesterday returned 50. Two draws today for the Newcastle and Liverpool games. If either game is level at 75-80 minutes when the price for no next goal reaches evens, I'll be laying it for the stake back on that particular game.

Update. Lay of 1-1 now evens in the Newcastle game for 10 pts

Profit of 18 pts on the Newcastle draw (taking off the lay) and a loss of 20 on the Liverpool draw. Loss of 12 pts on the weekend. Profit of 45.5 pts on the season. International break next week.

Looked at the stats and prices for the weekend of Saturday 15th and I'll be on the following. Will give prices when I have them but there are enough prices posted to give an indication of what the odds are going to be.

The standout bet is Swansea at Villa. Draw no bet is even money but I'm hoping to get better than that by backing the win and draw with different bookies.

Thanks Slick.

Swansea to beat Villa DNB 20 pts at 5/4 paddy power

Let me make it clear that I do NOT think Sunderland are going to beat Liverpool tomorrow. My figures, however, do, so I have to follow them with 10pts on them DNB 6/4 paddy power

Two draws
Norwich WHU 10 pts 12/5
Fulham WBA 10 pts 5/2 skybet

Laying the west ham draw now on 81 mins. back with a price shortly

Lay of 10pts for my stake back to lost 4.3. Placed

19.7 profit with 3 to run

fraid Ive got some bad news ODM-wasnt gonna say anything til I saw this but Sunderland to beat Liverpool is my 3rd highest bet this Saturday(with a saver on the draw).
I was actually really surprised no-one had picked up on Sunderlands odds...then I saw this.

Unfortunately I now fear the worst....

Me too.