ODM's ratings and stats 2012/13

Er,Im also on WBA to win(at 11/4),hoping they score first,and the 1-1 and 2-2 (saver on 2-1 Fulham)...and the 1-1 Villa Swans hoping to hedge after 75 mins.....

Sorry!!

Oh well. There's always next week

Have hedged a bit on Pool

Have faith my son

yeah well I am temporarily wout sky and saw the stats on the bbc website...0-5 shots....plus I have my credibility to think about

It's obvious you haven't seen any of the shooting, otherwise you wouldn't be worrying. Shelvey's hit the programme seller. Suarez has taken out the bloke cleaning the guttering on the stand. Fucking garbage.

The funniest thing was, Suarez takes the free kick, balloons it thirty foot into the air and then starts whining to the ref that the wall was too close. Thick Goofy cunt. Wouldn't it be a good idea to mention your concerns BEFORE taking the fucking kick?

Liverpool will have the possession in the second half and they will get 6 or 7 chances but Suarez needs 10 chances before he scores one goal so the odds are good. My only fear is Borini who does look likely. We haven't seen the best of him yet and he's going to be a decent Premiership player.

If Glen Johnson is a left back, I'm a Japanese balloon animal.

have hedged further nonetheless and can relax...Lpools lack of cutting edge was 1 of the reasons I thought 11-4 was value

Liverpool could be a profitable team to bet against this season(er which may well be stating the obvious)

I think Spurs may be another

Not really stating the obvious to be honest. They went through the whole of last year not winning games they should have won and still kept being priced up as if they were world beaters. The stat of how many time they'd hit the woodwork (more than any other team in the Premiership last season) and they've hit it twice in the first hour of tonight's game. However, as I said somewhere else, that might be a lot to do with the fact that the cunts just can't shoot very well

You can't just keep blaming bad luck. If you aren't hitting the target, you aren't hitting the target.

I think Spurs will turn it around. Starting tomorrow hopefully as I'm backing them.

Bugger. Suarez equalizes (probably his tenth shot to be honest, so the average is about right).

Good job it came to him to quickly for him to think about it.

Liverpool's equaliser denies me a profit on the weekend, so a loss of 10.3 pts takes the season's profits down to 35.2 points.

Some cracking Premiership fixtures next week with the betting on most games being open enough to make your decision and get a decent price on.

Early indications are that I'll be on Swansea against Everton (possibly DNB, will see).
I can get the price my figures suggest is right on West brom to beat Reading but those prices may well fluctuate depending on how Reading perform against Spurs today.
Fulham away at Wigan interest me.
West Ham at home to Sunderland could be a bet but they are a different team with Caroll in it so I may exercise a veto on that one if he's still out injured.
I've seen nothing so far to suggest that Liverpool can stop United from winning so a big bet on them DND may be in order if I can get around 4/5.

Er,ODM-I have a question for you-and it IS just a question,not an observation or,God forbid an implied criticism.

OK,now forgive me if Ive got this wrong-Ive not had time to read this too carefully-but am I right in understanding that a significant part of your strategy is to back Prem draws and lay after 75 mins?

My question is this,whats the main purpose of the thread-is it to show that your numbers are good/profitable?(And thus people should do these bets)?

If thats not the main purpose please ignore this.

If so,then,it seems to me that a possible problem may be that IF backing the draws in certain Premiership games(lets say ones where the favourite is Evens or bigger) then laying late in the 2nd half is,IN ITSELF,a profitable strategy(and I like to bet on the 1-1 and bet against that position later on and tell all my friends to at least try it) then wouldnt this "profitable"? strategy make it harder to correctly assess your actual figures' performance?

Now,as it happens,it appears that youd have made MORE profit so far if you hadnt been laying.

But,then again,the fact that laying is part of your strategy means that you are able to bet larger amounts per bet than you would if you were relying SOLELY on your figures?

Anyway,I hope you can see what Im trying to get at?Im interested in this because Im fascinated by peoples use of stats to try to win at football betting especially on the Premiership(since its commonly believed among many pro gamblers,I believe,that the Prem prices are rarely wrong).

If you have formulated figures that prove such people wrong I most certainly would want to be the first to know-hence my curiosity/interest.

AH!!
Ive now had time to read this more carefully and since betting on draws is clearly not the main strategy then the easiest thing to do is simply wait til the end of the season and see what the profit is.If its significant I can then go back and see how much came from the draws.
No probs.Sorry for my intrusion!

No problem mate. There are two elements to this thread and both are based on statistics. The main theme is that, for the first time every, I have compiled my own "ratings" for all Premiership teams - well,two ratings actually, one rating for when they play at home and one for when they play away. I update these ratings after every game according to how they've performed (nothing fancy, basic shots on/off target etc along with a few added bits) and weighted against the strength of the opposition was that they played against (based on my ratings).

If I think the odds on offer differ to the relative strengths that I have in my ratings, I will back accordingly. There will also be instances where I have teams evenly rated and will back the draw.

Alongside this, this season I started backing teams who haven't drawn for a long time and have found that I'm making a decent profit. When these teams are premiership teams and my ratings don't suggest a bet on one team or the other, I will back the draw in this thread. Hence the bet on Fulham to draw yesterday (now 11games since a draw) and West Ham (10 games since a draw before yesterday). As it turned out, my ratings cost me a couple of weeks ago when I followed my ratings when Wigan were due a draw and they got the draw. Oh well.

Because this is not the main reason for the thread, I am happy to pull my stake out if the scores are level after 75 mins or so and let the free bet ride. I don't know what the statistics are on doing that v not doing it but i won't necessarily do it in every game so I'm afraid this thread is not likely to indicate that either is the better way.

So it will be no surprise if I back Fulham to draw next week against Wigan but my ratings are suggesting that the value is in the away price. Would it be really, really stupid to back the away team DNB and have a bit on the draw as well I wonder?

West Brom's price has contracted since my post last week so, even though I expect them to win, it's a no bet for me.

10pts DNB Swansea v Everton 6/5

Andy Caroll is not back for West Ham but I'll chuck 10pts at them anyway at 5/4

And I'm going to try a crazy mixed bet with10pts Fulham at Wigan DNB 6/5 and 10pts on the draw at 12/5. So it really becomes a Draw, Draw no Bet, no bet.
So if Wigan win = -20 pts, Fulham win = +2pts, Draw +24pts

My brain tells me I have no confidence in United winning at Liverpool (if I had to go for a result, I'd pick the draw) but I have to follow the stats so I'll just have a little 5pt bet on United draw no bet at 20/21

Thanks mate. Missed one. It's another scenario the same as the Wigan one that assfucked me the other week whereby Southampton are due a draw (not drawn for 11 or something) but my stats go for Villa so it's draw no bet Villa 11/10 15 pts