Pakistan v England

After last weeks abject performance, England head to Abu Dhabi needing a performance. Bearing in mind this ground has hosted only 2 tests, both high scoring runs, the pitch is described as placid.
England will likely be without Tremlett, meaning Finn will likely play as I think its unlikely they'll play Monty. Pakistan I would imagine will be unchanged after a 10 wicket win.
Englands bowlers have proved they can bowl well out here, keeping England in the game by restricting the lead to only 140-odd before we threw it away again, so the bowling to me is not a worry. The batting was abysmal, & theres been all types of shite talked since, that England are in a false position etc etc, & that the record was built at home.
England are number 1 in the world because they deserve to be, they've earned it. There recent sub continent record isnt great but if anyones going to improve on it then its this lot. They will bounce back not because they need to, or have to for their positions, but because theyre good enough to. Theyve lost 3 bad tests over the last couple of years, & bounced back to win the next one on each occasion. Thats not so straightforward in a place like Abu Dhabi, but its the kind of place where you find out if you can hack it or not.
Ajmal bowled well, but this will be a flat pitch, & I am confident England can bat big. My theory is that it was crying out for a big Pakistan 1st innings last week to crush England but they could only get 340. Obviously that was enough but it showed that England could control them with the ball. So with our attack can Pakistan bat better, I'm not sure. England certainly can.

The draw currently trades @ 2.24 on Betfair & should be taken, then the match should probably be watched for 3 days & studied, because if a result is possible it will come late in the piece, & there will be big odds on show. Dont be taking no 2's & 3's on either side within 3-4 days, as if this test goes the way I think it will you'll get double figures both sides before the end.
Remember Cardiff 2011, England won in the last 2 sessions, & that dark test in Pakistan in 2001, when nass & Thorpey won in at the death. that type of match

Paks won toss, 256-7, but Misbah is still there on 83, so there is power to add. Looks like they'll get around the 300-325 mark which is what I was working on as I'm not sure they can get more against this attack unless on a motorway, & theres more movement off the deck than expected. England can get the 20 wickets, I'm confident of that
The whole crux is when England bat. I'm backing the fact that we just batted badly in the 1st test against some good but not exceptional Paki bowling, rather than we're clueless against them. If I'm right then I fancy a ton lead (ie 400ish) by the third session on day 3. So if I'm right its then how long it takes to bowl Pakistan out 2nd time. Still fancy a late chase to win.

It has to be pointed out that if I'm right, the market is wrong, as Pakistan are favourites I disagree, the market is unsure of Englands batting. I am not

Lay Pakistan @ 2.5. 30pnts to win 20

England had a great day until the last hour, reaching 207-5 after taking the last 3 Pakistani wickets for just 1 run. Trott & Cook had a big partnership but once they fell both KP & Morgan followed quickly. Until then I wondered whether the pitch was flattening out & it still might be but its wide open now. I'm not adding to my position yet but I'm still backing England here. the problem is that only Bell remains with Prior & the tail, & Bell's not reading ajmal out the hand going on this afternoons evidence. Bell has to contribute & get England at least another 100 with the tail. perfecxtly possible but good spin against the tail can be like facing the Windies quicks in the 70's & 80's....the tail can go for nothing. Lets hope not.
England rightly favourites bit its on the edge stuff. draw not out of the equation if its flattening out.

Unfortunately they are as their record says they are, & in the last 18 months they've proved they are. Point is a lot of teams are quite close together. Australia are finding their feet against a poor India, & South Africa are hard to beat, but no one appears good enough to play on result pictures in the sub-c. I thought England would do better than this but they're without doubt the best team in the world/ You have to remember all the sub-c teams get walloped when they come here.
Theyve done everything right in this test until the 4th innings, which granted is quite an important time in a cricket match

Ah the impoverished north i could just hear the music to last of the summer wine as i read that any conveyor belt we got involved in nicking still had the shopping on it

I've no doubt my argument would do better on a proper cricket forum...no slur intended, on here we talk from a gamblers pov, but I'm not sure the aussies would have done much better. In Asia, if the spinners bowl well, back foot players, ie England, SA & Australia will struggle more than those brought up to use their feet & disrupt the length of the bowler

Yorkie, dont even go there