Price up the Prem 'to finish bottom' market

No looking at the current odds offered, just have a look at the bottom of the table and price up what you think the odds should be for each team to finish bottom.

14 games left to play, only 2 points between bottom six teams whose goal difference varies between -8 and -25.

Thanks mate, I just think the bookies have it wrong and was wondering what others thought.

Pricing markets up is very difficult even with experience, although if you were a bookie you wouldn't go skint offering a 174% book like you have....you don't work for Ladbrokes, do you?

Appreciate other opinions too, guys. Feel free to look at upcoming fixtures if you wish, although sometimes that can be more of a hindrance.

I’m shit at these things too and I’ve no idea how to work out the percentage of my book but prices aside, this is the order I think they’ll finish in, from bottom up..

C.Palace @ 6/4

Swansea @ 3/1

Hull @ 3/1

Sunderland @ 9/2

Middlesbrgh @ 8/1

Leicester @ 16/1

Palace are in a right mess. Although i have nothing against big Sam i dont think he's the right 'fit' for the club. Two managers in a year wont help matters and main striker Benteke looks lost at the club., Cabaye and Townsend wont give too much of a toss either, as they know they will be snapped up by bigger clubs if Palace are to go down.

Looking at it again, swap Leicester with Bournmouth

I'll go along with the Cherries Howson, they're getting rapidly sucked into the relegation zone and could find themselves well amongst it in a few weeks time.
Usually it's the struggling team finding form that climbs out not Vice Versa.

Current odds to finish bottom...

15/8 - Sunderland
7/2 - Hull
6/1 - C Palace
8/1 - Boro
9/1 - Swansea
12/1 - Leicester
80/1 - Bournemouth

The general consensus seems to be that Sunderland are too short and Palace are too big, which is how I see it too. I also think Leicester are too big, tomorrow's game v Swansea is crucial and their away record is so poor you'd have to fancy Swansea to beat them.

Bournemouth could easily get sucked in to the relegation battle as has been mentioned above, it's a push to think they could finish bottom but if they lose their next 3 games they certainly won't be anywhere near 80/1 to do so.

Current bottom half of Prem table...



Current odds for relegation and to finish bottom...




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I like to use statto.com for my footy analysis, their tables are nicely colour-coded so you can see at a glance how each team performs against others, it's very handy indeed.

Sunderland



Sunderland are red hot favourites to go down, I think they are more likely to be relegated than not but at the same time I think 1/4 is too short.

Defoe will always give them hope with his goals and if you look at the Statto table above you'll see that all 5 of their wins have come against teams from 13th downwards.

Their last 6 games against these teams...

WON Bournemouth 1 - 2 Sunderland
WON Sunderland 3 - 0 Hull
WON Sunderland 2 - 1 Leicester
LOST Swansea 3 - 0 Sunderland
WON Sunderland 1 - 0 Watford
WON C Palace 0 - 4 Sunderland

Ask yourself this - would you really want to take 1/4 when they are just 2 points from safety and, more importantly, have shown that they are fully capable of beating the other teams around them?

These 6-pointers will be the defining games regarding who goes down - there's little point in gaining a battling point away to one of the top teams if you then go and get beat by one of your relegation rivals.

Of their 13 remaining fixtures, 6 are against these teams and they also have a home game v Burnley who have the worst away record in the league. Before then they are away to Everton and then at home to Man City, so will go even shorter if they lose those two games. A point is probably the best they'll achieve which doesn't help with the dilemma of whether or not to lay them.


Hull



I think Hull will stay up, and it's all down to the fixture list.

Obviously the appointment of new manager Silva has improved the recent performances, they were rock bottom when he arrived and have since won 4 of their 9 games (league and cup).

But the most interesting thing is that of their last 10 league games, no fewer than 9 of them were against top half teams. The sole game v a bottom half team resulted in a 3-1 win over Bournemouth.

Their last 4 games have been against Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal (LDWL), and their next 3 opponents are Burnley (H), Leicester (A) and Swansea (H). With Burnley's appalling away record and Leicester in complete disarray, you would fancy them to pick up at least 6 points from these games.

They have won their last 4 home games (2 league, 2 cup - all under Silva) and their home league form v bottom half teams reads WWDW (they also beat Swansea at home in the cup), and crucially 6 of their remaining 7 home games are against teams 10th downwards.



Crystal Palace



Crystal Palace look in big trouble and it's hard to fathom just why they are such a big price to go down compared to Sunderland. The only thing I can think of is the Allardyce factor, but he just hasn't had the same early impact at Palace as he had at previous clubs he'd rescued from the jaws of relegation (just 4 points from a possible 24 so far).

They've got an appalling record v top 6 teams (lost all 6 games) and they have to play all 6 of them again (4 of them away, and are the only relegation-threatened team who have to do so).

The only thing to offer hope is the fact that their 3 games left against teams around them are all at home, but that is negated by the fact that they taken just 1 point from the other 3 games at home v bottom 7 teams.

They are really struggling for goals (have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games) so it's hard to see them beating the ultra-defensive Middlesboro on Saturday (unless they can nick a 1-0 win). A point won't be any help to them and a defeat would be disastrous.


Middlesboro



Middlesboro have conceded fewer goals than Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool, but are also the lowest scorers in the league. Because they are so hard to break down a lot of people fancy them to stay up, but I think the opposite and it might send them down.

I think at this stage of the season it's better to be inconsistent but winning the odd game than grinding out constant draws, LWLLWL is better than DDDLDD, especially if you can gain important victories against your fellow strugglers.

Looking at the statto table, their form seems to be black and white - very good against teams 14th down (W4 D2 L1) but not a single win from the 18 games v the teams 13th and above (W0 D8 L10). The ability to beat the teams around you is a massive help at this stage of the season so if Boro carry on in this form they'll be fine, but 3 of the wins were at home and the sole away win came very early on in the season at Sunderland when that team were appalling (just 2 points from opening 10 games). 4 of their 5 remaining games v relegation threatened teams are away.

They haven't won a league game since the 17th of December and they really need to turn the draws in to the occasional win, but they set up so negatively in their games (even at home against poor teams) it's hard to see that happening. If they can't beat Palace this weekend they're in deep trouble.


Leicester



Leicester are in big trouble, and desperately need the change of manager to kick their players up the arse, otherwise the champions are going down.

Not a single goal scored in the league in 2017 (7 games), the most out of form team in the league (lost their last 6 games) and a shocking away record (W0 D3 L10). 8 of their remaining 13 games are against top half teams.

Their only chance seems to be their home form against bottom half teams, they're unbeaten in 6 games against 10th place down, but of course those games all came before the turn of the year, they're in much worse form now.

A tough run of fixtures coming up - away to Liverpool on Monday night, then face a resurgent Hull at home, before away games against Arsenal and West Ham. If one of the three teams below them manage to win on Saturday then Leicester will go in to the game against Liverpool in the bottom 3, which will only add to the pressure.

We'll see on Monday night if the players have been cheating their manager.

Swansea



Swansea look safe after a change of manager in January worked wonders - they've won 3 out of 5 games under Clement with the two defeats coming against Arsenal and Man City.

A tough game today away to Chelsea but then a run of very winable games, facing Burnley, Hull, Bournemouth and Boro. They've won 4 games out of 7 against the teams currently below them and even if they do lose today they should have enough to avoid the drop.


Bournemouth



There is always one team each season who gets dragged down in to the relegation fight late on, and this season it's Bournemouth.

They went as high as 150 to be relegated on Betfair but they've lost their way completely since they threw away a 3-0 lead against Arsenal and subsequently lost 0-3 against Millwall in the cup and have picked up just one point from their last 5 league games.

Their defence is shipping goals left right and centre (last 14 games conceded = 33303333332262 - clean sheet came at home against Leicester who are appalling away from home), if this continues they are surely in danger of going down.

They've got some tricky games coming up against some in-form teams and I can definitely see them getting sucked down in to the mire. 15/2 looks good value for relegation and in this form you wouldn't completely rule them out in finishing bottom at 50's.


Burnley



Burnley look safe on 30 points, but their biggest problem is that their away form is the worst in the league (1 point from 11 games) and while their home form is excellent, all of their remaining 5 home games are against top half teams while they still have 8 away games to play and, crucially, 6 of these are against the bottom 7 teams.

If their terrible away form continues then not only will they be losing games but also giving the teams below them 3 points, and they could get sucked in.

They have 4 away games in a row now, starting with Hull today and then Swansea, Liverpool and Sunderland. It'll be very interesing if they don't win any of these and 19/1 at Paddy Power is a spot of value for relegation.

I'll add my thoughts later, when I get the chance.

Bugger, forgot I was going to add my thoughts to this...I'll post them on the earlier post with all the individual tables to keep it neat..

edit...no mad rush as I'd forgot there's no Prem games this weekend

Adding comments to post further up as I go...