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Saturday bets.

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by beamer, Jul 7, 2012.

  1. beamer

    beamer Moderator

    Messages:
    351
    Beverley 1.55 Trymyluck 2 pts win @ 4.4

    Late pick this one but she looks to have been no fluke when running above her sp @ Donny. Weak event and sire has a decent 2yo strike rate. Fav was well beaten fav lto and worth taking on again.

    Impossible to know how any will handle this ground.    ​
    Beverley 3.35 Captain Scooby 4 pts win @ 7/1

    I've had a fair lump Captain Scooby in the 3.35, where he looks to have perfect conditions here, with my only real reservation being the jockey. His strike rate is poor and he really will have to be brave inside the distance and decide whether to come wide or take the far rail.

    I initially thought he ran badly last time, finishing 3rd @ 9/4 fav, but the winner has won again off 7lb higher, next time out @ 50/1 and the 2nd won next race @ 5/1, off same mark. CS comes here 1lb higher but the stiffer finish should really help and he looks one of the few hold ups in the field.

    Averaged 7/1 with the n/r's and decided to play this one early, simply in case the race cuts up further.
    He will probably trade bigger in runner, but it's simply a case that I can't be certain of getting matched IR.    ​

    ​

    beamer, Jul 7, 2012
    #1
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    I'm trying to force myself to back Repeater in the 435 at Haydock. I went on and on at everyone I knew to back this beast after I saw it's first ever run and was made to look a bit of a cock when it went wide and ran 8 fucking furlongs in a 7 furlong race and Wolves and got itself beat. Luckily, it went out next time and won and I think it'll make a decent horse in time.

    Three reasons not to back it today
    Up to 1m 3 for the first time
    Not sure to go on the ground
    The fav (Gabriel the Great) is a worthy one who is likely to handle the ground.

    Yet I have this nagging feeling that I'm going to regret it if I don't get on and it will be a stingier price next time if it wins this one. Price is between 3/1 and 9/2 so it's obviously as big a puzzle to the bookies as it is to me.
    ONEDUNME, Jul 7, 2012
    #2
  3. traeth

    traeth Moderator

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    2,037
    traeth, Jul 7, 2012
    #3
  4. beamer

    beamer Moderator

    Messages:
    351
    Cheers Traeth. Race panned out perfectly. He did trade much bigger in running to plenty of money which was a bummer.


    5.5 now ODM, but I couldn't put you off it.

    The odds fav is entered by the owner rather than trainer, so sometimes don't run to form.

    My only concern was why Luke Morris has not come up for the ride, as he looks the stable/ owner retained jock now.
    beamer, Jul 7, 2012
    #4
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    That would be some comfort if the bastard didn't place so many winners when he chooses to enter them:lol
    ONEDUNME, Jul 7, 2012
    #5
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    Ohhh, it's got talent this one, I'm telling you.
    ONEDUNME, Jul 7, 2012
    #6
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    I'm impressed it seemed to handle the ground. It's a quirky little shit with a mind of its own. A bit of a Mario Balotelli of the racing world but first run this season and on softer ground than it's used to, this is one to follow for a profit, trust me.
    ONEDUNME, Jul 7, 2012
    #7
  8. beamer

    beamer Moderator

    Messages:
    351
    It ram well mate.

    I need to brush up as a thought Koucash horses were pretty poor at Haydock for a local owner. He was 0/42 last season which is probably what I remembered, but he's a decent 22% up until last night for this season.
    beamer, Jul 7, 2012
    #8
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    His strike rate will always be low because he favours running as many of his horses as he can at Chester and Haydock. You'd struggle to follow him blind as he often has three runners in the same race and you know you're going to back the wrong one.

    I seem to remember that he took some horses from one yard (may have been Dandy Nicholls) because he wouldn't run them where he wanted them to be ran but, as I say, he gets plenty of winners.
    ONEDUNME, Jul 7, 2012
    #9
  10. beamer

    beamer Moderator

    Messages:
    351
    I just hope he doesn't win the 5.40.
    beamer, Jul 7, 2012
    #10
  11. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,909
    Well done with Captain Scooby Beamer clap
    Seen, Jul 7, 2012
    #11

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