Scottish Antepost Multiples

I havnt been reading this TC since I last posted on this thread but only cos

a) I don't want to be influenced by your bets

b)I would be very surprised if you don't make a profit if Aberdeen,Dundee and Peterhead win their markets.And although Dunfermline weren't favourites ,they have been top wout Rs for ages.(Then again,it depends on whether you are trying to guarantee NOT to lose.That would mean hedging far more than youd need to normally.)

Thus,the tables and prices have sufficed thus far.


Whats needed TC is for a couple of teams to go into freefall for no apparent reason.

That should spice things up

er,actually guarantee should have been in caps not not.

Hmmm,actually it also depends I think on how quickly teams like Aberdeen,Peterhead and Dunfermline became/become 'unbackable'.

NB.

in case this thread does not make a profit and for all I know it already has,Id like to point out that what TC is attempting is actually HARDER than normal antepost accas.

I ve no real idea how obvious this is to everyone so if its obvious forgive me.

I don't want anyone to be put off antepost accas should the worst happen.Especially not Thundercelt himself!

The reasons its harder include the fact that he,as far as Im aware,HAS TO bet on 4 teams all the time.

Usually antepost accas involve only using some of your bank for the accas themselves and then using the remainder in the form of doubles trebles or singles to hedge your positions at the end.

Er,least that's the only way I know of doing it.Any other way would need certain conditions to be met.

Another main reason its harder is that I think he has set himself a set profit/goal from the beginning whereas in practice the ability to adapt your goals to the circumstances should be an advantage

Hello Hotspur. To answer some of your points:

1. No, having some of the runaway leaders go into freefall wouldn't spice things up (from my angle, anyway)

2. I'm not looking to guarantee a win at this stage. I'm covering what are (in my opinion) realistic/plausible combinations. At the moment I've got the leaders and everyone within six points of them covered in every combination and that's good enough for me, although I won't rule out more bets if anyone closes in or a leader spices things up for you by going into freefall.

3. Is it harder doing only multiples? Not thought about it. I did multiples for the Champions League groups and did hedge with singles then.

4. I'm hopeful of a hefty percentage profit, but having my antepost profit ripped up by a late surge from Reading to win the Championship a couple of seasons ago I've learned not to count chickens.

No new bets this week. I'm still happy I've got enough combinations covered.

if no one minds here's an accy i put on before xmas that i shouting on for the rest of the season :hope

Accumulator (4)Hide Details

Dunfermline @ 5/6W/O RangersOpen
Scottish League One - W/O Rangers

Dundee @ 5/4OutrightOpen
Scottish Championship - Outright

Peterhead @ 11/10OutrightOpen
Scottish League Two - Outright

Man City @ 6/5OutrightOpen
English Premier League - Outright

its getting scarey darey

No new bets this week. I'm still happy with what I've got.

...And again this week

Thanks Punter. I've spent about £121 to win £200 which at the moment is looking at about 65%. I think I've got all reasonable combinations covered, but I'm trying not to count any chickens just yet.

I'm also doing this in three other markets (top four English divisions, three Conference divisions, and four European leagues (Portugal/Belgium/Holland/Italy) and at this stage the outcomes are looking decent but less spectacular, although it looks as if I'm heading for an overall profit with only the top four English divisions showing a (small) loss.

But still trying not to anticipate winnings in case someone makes a late surge . I'll summarise my experiences in a bit more detail at the end of the season.

One more, for an outside double I've not covered. Not including L1 or L2 as it looks like Peterhead and Dunfermline and the odds don't make it worth it.

Dundee Utd 10/1, Falkirk 16/1, 186/1, £1.07, potential return £200.09, Bet365.

Again, no more bets. I can't give a guarantee of a profit yet as I can't find anyone who will take anything on St Johnstone, who are the only club I've not covered. With Dunfermline and Peterhead coming in, I've got every other possible combination of them with clubs in the Premiership and Championship (who still stand a mathematical chance) covered.

So, with Aberdeen drawing last night, this thread WILL make a profit as I've got every possible winning combination covered for a yield of around 63%. (£122 spent, £200 to come back.)

That's not the whole story as far as my experiment goes as I'm also doing this for a three other league combinations. Two are going well enough to probably show a profit (none as big as 63% though) and one will show a modest loss. At the risk of afterevent accusations I'll post a short summary when I know all the outcomes.

It's been a good learning experience, and at the moment my early thoughts are that antepost multiples are worth looking at in much more detail, but with some caveats.

Acknowledgement Hotspur

Very well done TC.

In the circumstances,
I hope you wont mind if I say something on here about these bets that I at least think is very interesting.

See,the thing is,Im actually fascinated as to HOW these bets can make a profit more than anything else.I had hoped to be able to discuss that on gambling forums but I just got tied up in arguing about much more trivial matters instead.

I don't intend to try to do it now.Instead I merely wish to point out why these bets are more interesting than they may appear.


The main reason is this:


I have already mentioned that one of the most successful pro gamblers in the country says they are not profitable.

But not only has he said it,so,effectively, has Geoff Harvey in his popular,successful book,

SUCCESSFUL FOOTBALL BETTING

Now Geoff Harvey is considered to be one of the most knowledgable gambling writers/bettors in the country as far as Im aware.Certainly I think his book is the best book Ive read on soccer betting.(Not that theres much competition)


Early on in the book he states that he would NEVER bet on antepost markets/markets with more than 4 runners because of the big margins(overrounds).

Now,bear in mind,he was talking about singles!! IE you can imagine what he thought about the idea of doing multiples in such markets!


So HOW in Gods name can it be that 2 of the shrewdest gamblers in the country completely dismiss such bets?


I am going to give a short answer to that later or at a later date and then I will leave TC to it.



Well done again TC and I hope you don't mind me posting this here?My thread looks like its going to lose after todays results,lol and so here is more appropriate I think. I knew I could rely on you to make a profit!

I'll look forward to reading your report TC.

I'm guessing that things like Liverpool winning the premier league or Athletico Madrid winning La Liga when neither seemed likely as short as a month ago may be the reason some of your bets may loose

There again I could be ridiculously wide of the mark

I hope you do give us some insight

If you don't then then you have posted two good threads which I have enjoyed reading - so thanks

So, with Juventus winning their league, I know my yield for all four multiples I'm doing:

163% - Scottish 4 leagues
90% - English 4 leagues
135% - English Conference 3 leagues
135% - Portugal/Belgium/Holland/Italy

Average 31%, although I'm not 31% better off as I had different target amounts on each league. I also had returned of around 35% doing Champions' League groups multiples (see separate thread)

Those who've followed my other antepost threads (L2, Conference, Sweden) will know I generally make a profit of around 8-10% on singles markets. I'll leave it for others to judge whether that means anteposts suit my style, or whether I'm lucky, or bookies price markets wrong. I think Punter tends to make a profit too.

Some thoughts:

Good (largely as hotspur has said, to be honest):

*Anteposts give a lot of time for luck to even out, and a last minute goal or poor refereeing decision etc are unlikely to be critical.

Oops, pressed send too quickly. Continue:

* Multiples bets are small, so I don't feel like I'm overextending myself.

* Lots of time to correct mistakes and decide on hedging.

* Lots of entertainment - a small multiple stake can give months of interest in multiple results on multiple leagues.

The bad:

* It's boring! I soon realised I was playing stats and odds. I think a bit of knowledge of football is needed, but I've not needed any knowledge of specific leagues to make a profit.

* As said by hotspur, it's more difficult to make a profit on big, competitive leagues. I wouldn't go as far as to say three or four entrants is the maximum, but two or three possible winners is optimum. That's why I like Scotland (few teams makes it uncomplicated), while Holland and Italy had standout favourites, and Portugal and Belgium have only around three realistic winners.

* Colbro was right, that I was let down in England, despite having been brought up with these leagues and knowing them better than others. There were too many competitive clubs, and too many changes of fortune. I think four or five clubs at one stage favourites to win the Premiership, while in L2 I think two points separated around 7 sides going into the season's second half, and in the Championship QPR led for ages before fading. That was too much to cover, and I think demonstrates that knowledge of the competition isn't important when doing anteposts, more how football 'works'. I will do England again, though, as being an Englishman it's unthinkable not to do it!

So, would I do this again? Yes. I would probably place fewer bets, though, partly to keep an interest going later (in Scotland I pretty much knew I was in for a big yield by Christmas), and partly because I think I probably put on more bets than I needed. I want to refine this, because I think bigger profits are achievable.

For completeness, from 16 August: