Spain 28-29 April

Vela anytime scorer (Real Sociedad v Racing) @ 2.3 (Bet365)

Mentioned him a couple of weeks ago, not such a big price now, but still value IMO. Has scored in his last 5 home games, and has 7 goals in his last 10 games in all. Inexplicably Bet365 have him priced longer than a player (Agirretxe) who has scored the same number of goals (7) in his last 32 games, and two other players (Llorente and Ifran) who have 1 goal between them all season (used mainly as subs).

Nastic v Alcoyano @ 3 (Bet365)

Nastic as good as down, rock bottom, 14pts from safety with 8 to play. Alcoyano also in the relegation zone, but 6pts from safety, and as Guadalajara lost last night, they'd be guaranteed to move to within 3pts of safety with a win. Neither team in great form, although Alcoyano did claim a decent win last weekend, 3-1 away to mid-table Recreativo.

Of their 7 games left after this, Alcoyano have to play 5 of the top 9, so really can't afford not to take 3pts in this game if they want to stay up.

Nastic are 2-5-10 at home this season, and have played at home against 5 of the 7 sides immediately above them so far. They've taken just 2pts from those 5 games.

Medium stakes on both.

Carlos Vela, plays for Real Sociedad in first division. Alcoyano is second division.

Bloody hell, how much did you have on the DNB, it's now 4/5 (and the straight win is in to 6/4)?

Good luck on the DNB. Prefer the outright myself, on the basis that at this stage of the season a draw is of very little use to Alcoyano (well, to either side really), really can't imagine they'd settle for a draw in this one, they've got to play for the win. Obviously that doesn't guarantee they'll get it, but hopefully it should rule out a scenario where it's 1-1 with 10 to play and neither side wants to risk going for the win and leaving themselves open at the back.

By the way, even allowing for me abbreviating "Nastic", did my perfect spelling of "Alcoyano" not give you a clue as to which game it was?

Also you did state Nastic were rock bottom, RC, & there is, after all, only 1 rock bottom......

Only one playing Alcoyano mind you anyway I will depart back to the relegation thread

Thanks mate, although I'm quite capable of cursing my own tips

Well, that was shit. Just for a change, like

Today's bet to avoid like the plague:

Montañeros tb Alcala (Segunda B group 1) @ 2.25

Bottom 4 go down, 5th from bottom plays a relegation play off. Montañeros are bottom of the league, but it's all fairly tight down the bottom - Montañeros 33pts, Celta B 35 (and have already played and lost today), then 5 teams all tied on 39pts (two of whom have already played this weekend).

Alcala are one of the teams on 39pts, and then next weekend Montañeros travel to another of those teams, Vecindario, so while Montañeros' future isn't exactly in their own hands, they have got a very good chance to put the teams around them under pressure.

All very well needing to win, of course, actually doing it is another thing entirely, but Montañeros' recent form has been outstanding, with 5 wins from their last 6, including beating 2 of the top 6 (and the only game they didn't win in that run was against 2nd placed Lugo).

Alcala pretty tough to beat away from home, despite their lowly position, 2-9-6 away from home. They have struggled against the teams currently below them though, only taking one point from 3 games away to those teams.

Kick off in around an hour (6pm Spanish time).

Aagh

Erm, I mean, cheers mate, fingers crossed

Just realised I missed the word "home" out of that, it's at home that they've won 5 out of the last 6.

sorry but I've also joined you

rc your analysis is too convincing

Concentrate on his record Traeth, that should do it

Sorry