Spanish season 2011/2012

Few outright bets I've got so far for this season:

Benzema to be top scorer @ 13.0 (Bet365) 2pts e/w (top 4 finish)
Baptista to be top scorer @ 67.0 (Bet365) 1pt e/w (top 4 finish)

Both with Bet365, took those bets a couple of weeks back but think those prices haven't changed since then.

Benzema has looked in very good form in pre-season, 10 goals in 10 games, and seems to have now got himself ahead of Higuain in the pecking order at Madrid, although it remains to be seen how he'd be affected if Neymar is signed as the Spanish press reckon he may well be (although possibly not until the winter transfer window). Don't expect him to outscore the virtually inevitable top 2 (barring injury) of Ronaldo and Messi, but given a regular starting place I'd certainly expect him to be challenging for 3rd place.

As for Baptista, he's scored 4 in 5 games in pre-season, and bagged 9 in 11 league games at the end of last season for Malaga. For those that don't know, Malaga have now got extremely wealthy owners, have brought in a number of top-class players (Van Nistelrooy, Toulalan, Joaquin, Cazorla to name a few), and are looking to mount a challenge this year for a Champions League spot. I think that'll be beyond them, but I think they'll make the Europa League places, and I think Baptista will be a key player for them in achieving that. Way overpriced at 66/1.

Racing Santander to be relegated @ 5.5 (Bet365) 2pts

I took this one a couple of weeks ago too, and this price has since been cut to 4.33. Still, I'll post the bet and the reasons for it up, they may drift again once the season starts.

There was a lot of optimism around Racing last season, when they were taken over by a wealthy Indian businessman, Ali Syed, promising the world, but unfortunately for them, he's delivered very little, with wages going unpaid for long periods, and accusations of fraud in his business dealings being made.There's a dispute going on surrounding the takeover, with Syed saying he's got the money to invest, but won't be doing so until the disputes are resolved. In the meantime, the club have gone into voluntary administration with debts of 33 million euros - http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/news?slug=reu-spainracing

They've lost a number of their more important players from last season (Rosenborg, Giovani, Henrique for example), and their replacements are, IMO, an uninspiring bunch of players taken mainly from teams in Segunda.

As things stand at the moment, I'm not convinced there are three worse teams than them in this division. I'd expect Rayo to go straight back down, probably Granada too, but reckon Betis will be OK, and I'd have it down as between Racing, Zaragoza and possibly Levante for the remaining relegation place.

Got a few more ante-post bets in mind, but not actually placed yet, will update this thread as and when I place them.

Another outright bet added today:

Villarreal to be relegated @ 17.0 (Bet365) 5pts

Already in the relegation zone, and while they've been playing badly, until today I thought they'd be more than capable of playing their way out of trouble. However, they've now been hit with the hammer blow that Giuseppe Rossi has a cruciate ligament injury and is out for 4-6 months (although some sources are saying it's 6, rather than 4-6). If it's 6 months, that's near enough the rest of the season gone.

With Nilmar also having been operated on and expected to be out for another month or so (although with 2 goals in his last 19 games he's been out of form for some time anyway), that leaves them with only Marcos Ruben as a recognised striker. While I like Ruben and think he's looked pretty decent alongside one of Rossi or Nilmar, there's going to be a lot of pressure on him now, at least until a new signing is brought in (apparently they can sign from within Spain now, but to sign from abroad they'll have to wait for the winter transfer window), and I'm not (yet) convinced he's up to the job as the main striker.

With Cazorla gone and Senna now seemingly in decline, there's a lot of quality gone from this Villarreal side.

If they can sign a decent quality striker who settles in quickly, I suspect they'll still be OK. However, if they don't get a decent striker, or have to wait until the transfer window (and if that happens, I can't see them pulling themselves clear of trouble in the mean time), that price may soon start to look very big indeed.

Good article on Villarreal too this week, from Sid Lowe in the Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/oct/27/juan-carlos-garrido-villarreal

Villarreal may have won at the weekend, but things look even worse for them on the injury front, with another 2 first teamers suffering bad injuries (Zapata out for 5 weeks, Cani out for 6 weeks), while Marco Ruben and Senna are also injured although may be in contention for next weekend,

http://www.marca.com/2011/10/31/futbol/equipos/villarreal/1320085365.html

Added another outright bet:

Murcia to be promoted from Segunda @ 11.0 (Sporting Odds) 4pts

Mentioned back in August (http://betnod.com/threads/spain-26-29-august.136/#post-1450) that Murcia were my dark horses for promotion, and after a poor start with 3 straight defeats (although against 3 of the favourites for promotion), they've now hit form with an 8 match unbeaten run (5 wins 3 draws). Decent squad, decent support (5th best average attendance in the division), top facilities (30k+ capacity stadium, sometimes used for Spain's international matches), recent history of playing in Primera (2 of the past 8 seasons). Currently sitting in 8th, just 2 places and 1 point off the playoff places, and only 4pts behind Almeria in 2nd (top 2 go up automatically, 3rd to 6th in playoffs).

Sabadell to be relegated from Segunda @ 51.0 (Sporting Odds) 1pt

Newly promoted side, and made an unexpected bright start, but showing signs of fading (although injuries have played a part). Just 2pts from last 4 games (admittedly 3 of them away), with that run involving two games against fellow newly-promoted sides, and a 5-0 thrashing against bottom side Nastic (their first win of the season).

On 21pts from 12 games, probably need a further 30pts from the remaining 30 games to be safe. I reckon they'll probably make it, but 50/1 is a hell of a big price, and worth covering in the event they are about to get sucked into a downward spiral.

Athletic Bilbao to finish top 4 @ 5.0 (Bet365) 4pts

Obviously Barcelona and Real Madrid are guaranteed the top 2 places, which means there are 2 more places to play for. Currently held by Valencia (24pts, best price 1.25 ) and Levante (23pts, best price 10.0). In the chasing pack you've got Malaga (20pts, 3.75), Sevilla (18pts, 3.25), Bilbao and Espanyol (both 17pts, 5.0 and 12.0 respectively), and then Atletico and Rayo (both 16pts, priced 6 and 251 (according to Oddschecker anyway) respectively). Wouldn't expect Levante to maintain their start to the season (they're already falling away), and don't see Espanyol or Rayo challenging for the top 4.

That leaves 5 teams (Valencia, Sevilla, Malaga, Bilbao, Atletico Madrid) in contention for 2 places. Atletico Madrid are very inconsistent, often struggle for goals, and the fans are already on their manager's back. Don't see them challenging myself. Valencia you'd think should comfortably enough claim a top 4 place, but that price is absolutely crazy. We're not even a third of the way through the season, I wouldn't want to back them at evens, never mind 1.25.

I make it then three teams (Bilbao, Sevilla or Malaga) playing for one, possibly two (if Valencia mess up) places. Sevilla have not win in their last 5, including home to 2 of the bottom 3 (and a defeat at home to Bilbao). Malaga are still yet to properly gel, and struggle for results away from home. Bilbao meanwhile are unbeaten in their last 7, and that includes trips to Valencia and Sevilla, plus home to Barcelona. Their next 5 games are all against sides in the bottom 6 (it's a shame there's virtually no liquidity for this market on Betfair, as this one looks ideal for a chance to potentially lay some off in a few weeks time.

Halfway stage of the season seems as good a time as any to be updating these:

The Baptista bet is dead in the water, only played 4 games (1 goal) all season due to injury.

The Benzema bet is marginally behind where I hoped it would be, currently back in 6th place with 10 goals, 4 goals behind Falcao in 4th, so still well in contention for a place. Currently priced at 176, but that's for the win only, and this bet was never likely to be a straight winner, was only ever looking at the top 4 place.

These two occupying the two places just above the relegation zone. Villarreal only above the drop zone on goal difference, Racing one point better off. They've just had a 5 game unbeaten run ended though, and play 3 of the top 4 plus Atletico Madrid in their next 4 games, while Villarreal have Barca at home and Sevilla away next up, so both could get drawn back into the relegation zone in the coming weeks. Zaragoza look doomed, but think any of the teams in the bottom half could take the remaining two places. Current best prices Racing 2.75, Villarreal 6

Still available at 9, and I reckon they're still a decent shout at that price. Currently 8th, only 3pts from the playoff places and 6pts from the automatic promotion spots. Think automatic will be beyond them, no reason why they can't make the playoffs though.

They certainly have been sucked into a downward spiral. Since I posted the bet, they've managed just 4pts from 9 games, and have dropped to 15th (19th-22nd go down), just 6pts above the relegation zone. No win since mid-October, they're on 25pts at halfway - safety target is generally around 50pts, so they're exactly halfway there. Currently priced at 2.75 to go down, not sure I'd want to back them now at that price though.

Price has drifted slightly since I backed them, now out to 5.5, still not convinced they should be that big. If it wasn't for the re-emergence of Atletico Madrid under Simeone (and I'm still hopeful Atletico will self-destruct - it's Atletico Madrid after all, they usually do), I'd have Bilbao as my favourites for 4th place. Bookies have Levante, Atletico and Sevilla ahead of them in the betting. Atletico maybe, Sevilla I personally don't think so, but couldn't rule them out, but Levante? Injuries taking hold, and 6 defeats in their last 10. Pretty much playing for a draw at home to Zaragoza last time out. I'll be impressed if they finish top 10, not a chance they'll finish top 4.

One winner now guaranteed from this, as Racing Santander's relegation was confirmed today. Suspect it may be the only winner, although I've not yet given up on Benzema to sneak a top 4 place, Bilbao to make the top 4 and Villarreal to be relegated

3 on Higuain or 4 on Falcao. Two back so far in today's game, hat-trick would be nice.

Fear you're probably right on Bilbao, and they've also got the Spanish cup final coming up soon. Am kind of torn for today's game, as a win for Zaragoza would give me real hope for Villarreal to get relegated, but would probably finish off Bilbao's chances of finishing 4th.

Villarreal were a minute away from a 0-0 draw away to Valencia which would've seen them safe, but a 92nd minute winner for Valencia drags Villarreal right back into the relegation scrap. For them to go down they'd have to lose at home to Atletico Madrid (who are still in contention for the last Champions League place), Rayo Vallecano beat Granada at home, and Zaragoza to get at least a point away to Getafe. None of those outcomes looks out of the question, but I suspect combining all three of them is probably a bit too much to ask.

5 teams playing for 2 relegation places next week in Spain - Granada, Rayo, Villarreal, Zaragoza and Sporting Gijon - and with the exception of Sporting, all of them are in control of their own destiny (due to Rayo and Granada playing each other).

Benzema won't make the top 4 unless he gets a hat-trick next weekend (and Higuain doesn't score).

Sabadell to be relegated from the Segunda is starting to look interesting again though - 7pts clear with 6 to play, but a nasty looking run-in, all against teams in the top half, and 4 of them away from home (where they've gone 7 months without a win). At the moment it looks like the bottom 2 are pretty much doomed, I reckon it's Alcoyano for one of the two remaining places, and between Sabadell and Guadalajara for the last one.

Villarreal go down, Benzema only managed to score 1, and finishes 5th, one goal outside the top 4.

Villarreal's relegation looks like it's probably going to kill off the Sabadell to be relegated bet though - as Villarreal will be in the Segunda next year, Villarreal B will automatically be relegated to the Segunda B no matter what happens, meaning there are only 3 more places to be decided. Means that instead of Sabadell being 5pts above the relegation zone with 5 to play, they're now 9pts clear, which should be enough.

Well done Rc, great calls on Santander and Villarreal, especially at the odds you got. A very healthy Antepost profit

Cheers Punter/Quandram (good to see you back on here, by the way, even if it is only a quick visit ). Was a bit of a nailbiter, wasn't it? And Rayo's winner was offside too.

Yesterday's results mean that Sabadell are now safe from relegation (shame, as I would've still fancied their chances of finishing 4th from bottom), so that's all bets in here now settled one way or the other. Total staked 22pts, returned 96pts.

Cheers Hotspur, and yes, they were all with either Bet365 or Sporting Odds.

The Villarreal price was big, but I reckon if any bookies offered in-running odds on the market, with 3 minutes of the season left to play, the price would've been even bigger. Villarreal had to lose, Rayo had to win, and Zaragoza couldn't lose. Zaragoza were always comfortable (ended up winning 2-0 against 8 men), but both Villarreal and Rayo were 0-0 until the 87th minute, then Villarreal went behind, and in the final minute Rayo scored against Granada (blatantly offside too). Not sure what the in-running prices were for Villarreal to lose and Rayo to win at that stage, but I suspect a double would've been bigger than 16/1. Guess the price offered earlier in the season was probably influenced by the fact that Villarreal were in the Champions League at the start of the season. No idea of the actual figures, but I'd imagine there are very few cases of a team starting the season in the Champions League and ending it being relegated.

There are usually some decent prices to be had around the Spanish leagues at some point though. Remember back in 2006 over on TDP backing Sevilla at 100/1 for the title pre-season (back when they were far stronger than they are now) and getting a damn good run for my money, they ended up 3rd, 5pts behind both Madrid and Barcelona.

Think it's safe to say that this season's ante-post return for me is very much an exception rather than the rule though