Strictly Come Dancing 2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/strictlycomedancing/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing

I haven't been too bothered to look at who's been paired with who although some dancers will be more popular than others so there might be some advantage for certain celebrities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_9)

Odds from Stan James:

Harry Judd 5/2
Jason Donovan 4/1
Holly Valance 9/2
Alex Jones 15/2
Dan Lobb 9/1
Robbie Savage 10/1
Lulu 11/1
Chelsee Healey 16/1
Anita Dobson 22/1
Rory Bremner 33/1
Russell Grant 40/1
Nancy Dell'Olio 50/1
Edwina Currie 100/1
Audley Harrison 100/1

I could probably rule out four of the top six in the betting immediately...

* Jason Donovan and Holly Valance are Australian, and Jason could only finish third behind Myleene Klass and Matt Willis in 'I'm A Celebrity...'. No non-UK celebrity has ever finished in the top three over in 'SCD' but to be fair, only two count and they were Martina Hingis and Michelle Williams.
* Dan Lobb works for ITV. The best placed finish for a current ITV employee (excluding breakfast shows who generally do very poorly) has been fourth (Laila Rouass was in 'Primeval' during 2009. Scott Maslen was in 'EastEnders').
* Footballers don't do well. Can Robbie Savage buck the trend that it's only cricketers and (to an extent) athletes and rugby players who can cut it on the dancefloor?

...but then again those four have every chance to do well:

* Popstars generally do well apart from last year's stitch-up job on Michelle Williams (she wasn't as good as advertised ante-post but she wasn't as terrible as she was made out to be every week she was on). Only Alesha Dixon has won though.
* Dan Lobb will probably get the housewives vote and judging by who he's up against, should easily survive five eliminations. He'll be stitched up along the way though. He's already been criticised for not being a good dancer and needing vast improvement.
* Robbie Savage might have a similar quality to Darren Gough and surprise. He could probably better the seventh place finishes of both John Barnes and Peter Schmeichel.

Random thoughts and things that have to be considered:

* Nobody from a soap opera unless you count 'Waterloo Road''s Chelsee Healey (a long running drama but it's not really a soap), and Anita Dobson, Jason Donovan and Holly Valance who've appeared in one.
* Who is this year's John Sergeant/Ann Widdecombe that will last a surprisingly long time?
* Can workplace bias from the BBC help Alex Jones, Chelsee Healey and to an extent, Robbie Savage? BBC employees have won the last three series.
* Which 'oldie' will do best? Rory Bremner, Edwina Currie, Nancy Dell'Olio, Anita Dobson, Russell Grant or Lulu?
* Who will be stitched up and be a 'surprise' early casualty?
* All the winners have been English with the best performance from Irish, Scottish and Welsh celebrities being a second place finish from Colin Jackson. Can the Welsh or Scottish bloc vote finally work for Alex Jones, Lulu or Robbie Savage?
* Can Audley Harrison survive longer than Joe Calzaghe who survived four eliminations?

FINAL THREE!? Three for me to be in the final three would have to be Harry Judd, Holly Valance and Alex Jones (I think Jason Donovan will superficially go very far but will be nobbled along the way). Lively outsiders for me would have to be Dan Lobb, Robbie Savage and Lulu.

WHO'S GOING TO WIN!? If you pressed a gun against my head and forced me to choose the likely winner to save my life, I'd hope that Holly Valance's 15 years+ of dancing would mean she coasts to victory like Alesha Dixon eventually did (even if I did poo-poo Alesha's chances initially!). There is the danger of being 'too good' like Austin Healey or Ricky Whittle though and not clicking with the public. Holly probably won't get the housewives' vote and it will be mentioned that she's going out with billionaire Nick Candy which will probably lose her a few votes.

It's gonna be close as to who the BBC want to win. It might even be as close as Kara Tointon vs. Matt Baker, or the inevitable thud of a supposedly close contest such as Chris Hollins vs. Ricky Whittle or Tom Chambers vs. Rachel Stevens.

My strategy on this one is pretty simple - take Harry Judd at anything near 3/1 (my ave at the moment is about 3.90), play the X Factor markets instead and hopefully collect on finals night.

He's already an accomplished ballroom dancer (he did one of the SCD specials once and looked very good) and in this company should be a reasonably heavy favourite. He's got few decent males up against him - I agree with the reservations about JD.

Aslong as Lobb isnt a spoiler Judd should be a virtual shoe in for the final given his persona/existing fanbase/dance skills. Valance could trump him but I'd make him a better than 25% chance to win this.

If Savage breaks his fucking neck will somebody please post up so that I can record the replay.

Thanks

The more I think about it with the first proper show this weekend I'm inclined to agree with Beanie that it does look set up for Harry Judd to win. It might even have the air of a Tom Chambers vs. Rachel Stevens final all over again with Harry Judd vs. Holly Valance, and the BBC won't let the foreigner win will they!?

....looks like I've got a bullet coming to my head.

I'll put up the various odds for the array of markets out there later.

The first proper show was last night. I didn't watch it but I've got it on Sky+.

If real-time Twitter reactions is anything to go by then Robbie Savage was surprisingly good, Anita Dobson and Russell Grant were popular, Dan Lobb and Lulu didn't dance well and Audley Harrison is as stiff if not more so than Joe Calzaghe.

Various odds and sods (best odds when specified):

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

Winner:

Harry Judd 5/2 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Jason Donovan 4/1 (general)
Holly Valance 9/2 (Sportingbet)
Alex Jones 12/1 (Sportingbet)
Anita Dobson 12/1 (Blue SQ/Bodog/Coral/Sportingbet)
Robbie Savage 16/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet/Sportingbet)
Chelsee Healey 18/1 (Paddy Power)
Russell Grant 20/1 (Blue SQ/Ladbrokes)
Dan Lobb 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
Lulu 33/1 (Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)
Rory Bremner 50/1 (Bet365/Coral/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Nancy Dell'Olio 80/1 (Sportingbet)
Audley Harrison 150/1 (Ladbrokes)
Edwina Currie 150/1 (Ladbrokes)

Top Man:

Harry Judd 6/5 (Blue SQ/Boylesports)
Jason Donovan 9/4 (Bet365)
Robbie Savage 9/1 (Bet365)
Dan Lobb 12/1 (Ladbrokes/William Hill)
Russell Grant 14/1 (Boylesports)
Rory Bremner 33/1 (Bet365/Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Audley Harrison 66/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)

Top Woman:

Holly Valance 11/8 (Boylesports)
Alex Jones 4/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
Anita Dobson 7/1 (Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Chelsee Healey 15/2 (Blue SQ)
Lulu 16/1 (Ladbrokes)
Nancy Dell'Olio 25/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ/Ladbrokes)
Edwina Currie 66/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ/Ladbrokes//Paddy Power)

Who will last longer? (Series match bets from William Hill)

* Robbie Savage 1/2 vs. 6/4 Lulu
* Holly Valance 5/6 vs. 5/6 Jason Donovan
* Anita Dobson 8/15 vs. 11/8 Russell Grant
* Alex Jones 2/5 vs. 7/4 Dan Lobb

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1045: After the first night proper of Strictly Come Dancing, Jason Donovan is 2/1 with Sky Bet.

Harry Judd is 3/1 with sportingbet while Holly Valance is a general 5/1 chance - it's 14s bar.

William Hill were less than impressed with Nancy DellOlio and make her just 5/1 to score nil points.

"It looks like a two horse race between Jason & Harry both of whom are very good. At the other end of the scale Nancy was awful and she may make history by failing to get a point!" said their spokesman Rupert Adams.

=============

I remember Jason Donovan was favourite to win 'I'm A Celebrity...' as well. This is of course,a different kettle of fish.

A long time to go yet. Jason doesn't have many other gigs so he'll be free to do the tour. Winning 'Strictly...'? If it's a sustained enough gamble, Jason may very well do it but I'm not convinced at this early stage.

Well it looks like I've got it hopelessly wrong based on first impressions as if it's to be believed Jason Donovan will coast this. Bettingzone are upping the madness by tipping Chelsee Healey, Anita Dobson and Rory Bremner.

http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=betting/11/10/05/manual_151838.html&BID=67

Updated odds...

Winner:

Jason Donovan 7/4 (general)
Harry Judd 3/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Holly Valance 11/2 (Bet365/Boylesports)
Anita Dobson 12/1 (Bodog/Boylesports)
Chelsee Healey 16/1 (Betfred/Bodog/Paddy Power/Stan James/totesport)
Alex Jones 20/1 (Betfred/Boylesports/Sportingbet/totesport)
Robbie Savage 25/1 (Boylesports/Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)
Dan Lobb 33/1 (Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Russell Grant 33/1 (Betfred/Sky Bet/totesport)
Lulu 50/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Rory Bremner 66/1 (Betfred/totesport)
Nancy Dell'Olio 100/1 (general)
Edwina Currie 125/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Sportingbet/Stan James)
Audley Harrison 150/1 (Blue SQ/Stan James)

Top Man:

Jason Donovan 11/10 (Bet365/Betfred/Ladbrokes)
Harry Judd 13/8 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/William Hill)
Russell Grant 14/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
Robbie Savage 16/1 (Bet365)
Dan Lobb 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
Rory Bremner 40/1 (Betfred)
Audley Harrison 80/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ)

Top Woman:

Holly Valance 6/5 (Bet365/Betfred/Coral/William Hill)
Anita Dobson 4/1 (William Hill)
Chelsee Healey 9/2 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Alex Jones 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Lulu 20/1 (Blue SQ/Coral/Ladbrokes)
Nancy Dell'Olio 50/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports)
Edwina Currie 66/1 (Betfred/Blue SQ/Boylesports)

Top 3 Finish: (Odds from Betfred)

Jason Donovan 1/2
Harry Judd 8/13
Holly Valance 5/4
Anita Dobson 5/2
Chelsee Healey 3/1
Alex Jones 4/1
Robbie Savage 4/1
Dan Lobb 11/2
Russell Grant 15/2
Lulu 15/2
Rory Bremner 16/1
Nancy Dell'Olio 16/1
Edwina Currie 25/1
Audley Harrison 25/1

First Elimination:

Nancy Dell'Olio 7/4 (general)
Audley Harrison 5/2 (Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)
Edwina Currie 7/2 (general)
Lulu 11/1 (Coral/Stan James)
Dan Lobb 20/1 (general)
Rory Bremner 22/1 (Coral)
Robbie Savage 33/1 (general)
Alex Jones 40/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)
Russell Grant 40/1 (Sportingbet)
Chelsee Healey 40/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)
Anita Dobson 66/1 (general)
Holly Valance 100/1 (general)
Harry Judd 125/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Sky Bet/Sportingbet)
Jason Donovan 250/1 (Sportingbet)

Who will be eliminated first this weekend!?

I can't imagine either Edwina Currie or Audley Harrison will be popular and I think they'd be less of a loss than Nancy Dell'Olio. Nancy will get the 'She's awful and we like her for that!' vote.

If Dan Lobb can't appeal to housewives he's doomed quicker than I thought he'd be originally and he could be a double digit shocker.

Should've had a go as it's Edwina Currie gone. Audley Harrison was the other one in the bottom two.

Second Elimination:

Audley Harrison 7/4 (Ladbrokes)
Nancy Dell'Olio 7/4 (Bet365/Boylesports)
Dan Lobb 10/1 (Coral)
Lulu 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Stan James)
Rory Bremner 12/1 (general)
Russell Grant 40/1 (Boylesports/Paddy Power/Sky Bet/Sportingbet)
Alex Jones 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
Robbie Savage 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
Anita Dobson 50/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Chelsee Healey 66/1 (Coral)
Holly Valance 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Harry Judd 150/1 (Ladbrokes)
Jason Donovan 250/1 (Sportingbet)

Yesterday afternoon's Bettingzone Market News:

1410: William Hill have seen a surge of bets for Nancy Dell'Olio to get the boot from Strictly Come Dancing at the weekend, despite not being in the final two last week.

Nancy is currently the 7/4 second favourite to go, with Audley Harrison the 6/5 firm's market leader - although he can be backed at 15/8 with sportingbet.

At the other end of the scale, Jason Donovan is a general 7/4 favourite to win and he is 5/6 with Hill's to get the best score of the week.

"If Audley goes it will be a knockout blow for punters who have all lumped on Nancy to go at the weekend," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

===============

The first two weeks of SCD have never had two female celebrities eliminated first. Digital Spy mostly think a surprise might be in the works with Dan Lobb or Rory Bremner gone.

The odds are skinny and I can't see a surprise with Audley Harrison out. I won't be betting on it though with the weight of money suggesting history will be made and that Nancy Dell'Olio will make it the first time ever that two female celebrities will be out in the first two weeks.

Meh. Dan Lobb out, Nancy Dell'Olio survives.

stereoman, i don't really follow strictly so this is probaly a really stupid question. where do you get the info for the elimination if the results show is not broadcast till sunday?

i've put an ew on chelsee btw @12.0 - what do you think?

The results show on Sunday isn't live, it's filmed on Saturday night with the result announced at around 10:30pm. Someone's in the audience and leaks the information over on the Digital Spy SCD forum.

Chelsee Healey to finish in the top three? Not the worst bet in the world but she'll struggle to get past the likes of Anita Dobson and Robbie Savage, and then somehow finish ahead of one of Jason Donovan, Harry Judd or Holly Valence.

I think she'll ominously finish fourth or fifth like Christine Bleakley, Letitia Dean, Louisa Lytton, Patsy Palmer and Laila Rouass before her. Chelsee Healey isn't considered 'better' than Holly Valance yet and superficially the 'best' female dancer never finishes less than third but 'the journey' and 'public support' can turn things around for Chelsee.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing#Main_series_results

Third Elimination:

Nancy Dell'Olio 11/8 (Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Audley Harrison 5/2 (Bodog)
Lulu 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Rory Bremner 12/1 (Blue SQ/Bodog/Stan James)
Anita Dobson 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Alex Jones 33/1 (general)
Russell Grant 40/1 (Coral)
Robbie Savage 40/1 (Bodog)
Chelsee Healey 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
Holly Valance 66/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
Harry Judd 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Jason Donovan 150/1 (Ladbrokes)

Do they get rid of Nancy now or later? Three or four further up that could be cannon fodder just like Dan Lobb was just to 'keep it interesting' and make Nancy the baddie for this series.

Audley Harrison, Rory Bremner and Lulu are the rhubarb over at the Digital Spy forums as likely casualties this week in the bottom two.

I wouldn't be surprised if Nancy survives again. Any odds movements will be telling. I'm not betting on it though as it's too volatile.

Week 3 Highest Scorer: (from William Hill)

Jason Donovan 4/6
Harry Judd 4/1
Holly Valance 9/1
Anita Dobson 10/1
Alex Jones 10/1
Chelsee Healey 14/1
Robbie Savage 14/1
Rory Bremner 33/1
Russell Grant 40/1
Audley Harrison 100/1
Lulu 100/1
Nancy Dell'Olio 150/1

Nancy Dell'Olio's Week 3 Score: (from William Hill)

Under 20.5 points 5/6
Over 20.5 points 5/6

Apparently there was a mini-gamble over at Ladbrokes on Anita Dobson to top score this week over at Ladbrokes and they've suspended the market.

Dodgy manipulatable markets. Jason Donovan's been top of the scoreboards three weeks running though. Nancy's scored 12, 14 and 20 points in the last three weeks. Nancy is dancing the paso doble. I'd go 'under 20.5 points' but it's a no bet from me.

Series Match-bets ('to last longer' from William Hill)

Anita Dobson 5/6 vs. 5/6 Russell Grant
Robbie Savage 2/9 vs. 3/1 Lulu
Harry Judd 1/4 vs. 11/4 Chelsee Healey
Holly Valance 10/3 vs. 1/5 Jason Donovan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_9)

Nancy Dell'Olio scores 18, ends up in the bottom two but still survives ahead of Rory Bremner.

Chelsee Healey top scores Week 3 with 36 with Anita Dobson getting 32 and Jason Donovan 27 (Harry Judd scored 35).

I've no idea why that SCD Series 9 Wikipedia link/page is 'blank' but when you click on another link and go back to it, it's 'full'.

Today's Bettingzone Market Updates:

1320: Meanwhile Robbie Savage is the one punters want in Strictly Come Dancing.

Having been as big as 20/1 earlier on, he's half that price with William Hill now but still some way behind the favourites Harry Judd and Jason Donovan, who each can be backed at 9/4.

"We have had people placing bets who have said they hated Robbie in his playing days but have been won over, I think he has a real chance of landing some silverware!" said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

This afternoon's Bettingzone Market Updates:

1300: Of course, there's also another round of Stictly Come Dancing shows and William Hill rate Nancy Dell'Olio a 5/4 chance to be eliminated next and their spokesman Rupert Adams said:

"Nancy has a certain charm but we feel that the judges cannot keep her in any longer and the money has all been for her to be rumbled by her Rumba."

Harry Judd took over from Jason Donovan at the head of the market last weekend and remains a solid 2/1 favourite, with the Australian available at 9/4.

Chelsee Healey is 7/1 ahead of 8/1 chance Holly Valance, while Robbie Savage is now a standout 10/1 with Bodog.

It's a close call this year: last year you could tell from the start that the last two would be Kara Tointon and Matt Baker. The problem with betting this year is that on paper the final should be between Jason Donovan and Holly Valance,but they are both Australians,and of course the winner is determined by British televoters only. Although Harry Judd was the first contestant to achieve a perfect 10 score last week I'm not sure he has the warmth of personality over the remaining dozen weeks to win the hearts of the British public. I do think that Chelsee Healey could well fill this role,though I still think in the long run it's going to be between Jason and Holly.

I wouldn't disagree. It's most likely 'perm any two from four' though as to who the final two will be from Chelsee/Harry/Holly/Jason. I will be surprised if the Robbie Savage gamble has any legs. A heroic fifth place? Sure. Any further than that? Probably not.

Harry Judd has interestingly regained favouritism from Jason Donovan rightfully or wrongfully. Can the trend of no foreign or ethnic minority celebrity to ever win SCD continue!?

I don't think I could do an about-turn so quickly in the space of four weeks as I've judged SCD so far completely wrong in the most part.

I picked the wrong Australian to be nobbled as Holly Valance for whatever reason is being marked 'low' and the GBP generally think she has 'no chemistry' with Artem (Jason Donovan despite a blip should easily finish top three), and the wrong BBC employee as Chelsee Healey is doing better than I expected and Alex Jones a lot lot worse than I thought she'd be.

I haven't put any money on it so far (only 'professional pride' at stake so far) but the last two eliminations have been absolute bobbins. I'm tempted to use the libellous 'F' or 'R' word that I usually bring out for situations where something fishy is going on. I don't care that the Digital Spy forums called both of 'em more-or-less on the money as 'surprises', something very odd is happening. I have no idea if bookies have felt their satchels being a lot lighter in the last two weeks though...if they haven't they've gotten away with it as the shysters surprisingly haven't capitalised.

Updated odds...

Winner:

Harry Judd 2/1 (general)
Jason Donovan 9/4 (Bet365/Boylesports/Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)
Chelsee Healey 7/1 (Sky Bet/Stan James)
Holly Valance 8/1 (Boylesports/Coral)
Robbie Savage 9/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ/Coral but 10/1 at Bodog)
Russell Grant 20/1 (general)
Alex Jones 25/1 (Boylesports/Coral/Sky Bet)
Anita Dobson 40/1 (Boylesports/Sportingbet)
Lulu 100/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ/Boylesports/Ladbrokes/Stan James)
Audley Harrison 200/1 (Blue SQ/Sportingbet)
Nancy Dell'Olio 200/1 (Blue SQ/Ladbrokes/Sportingbet/William Hill)

Fourth Elimination:

Nancy Dell'Olio 11/8 (Betfred/Boylesports/William Hill)
Audley Harrison 11/4 (Blue SQ/Ladbrokes)
Lulu 11/2 (Bet365/Betfred/Ladbrokes)
Anita Dobson 10/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Ladbrokes)
Alex Jones 16/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Ladbrokesl)
Russell Grant 28/1 (Sky Bet)
Robbie Savage 33/1 (Boylesports/Ladbrokes)
Chelsee Healey 50/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)
Holly Valance 66/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Ladbrokes)
Harry Judd 100/1 (general)
Jason Donovan 100/1 (general)

Some slight odds movements on Nancy Dell'Olio, Audley Harrison and Alex Jones but nothing out of the unusual.

The general feeling is Audley's jive won't be too good and he's spent some time away in the US. Alex Jones is generally being touted as this week's surprise elimination (she's dancing the paso doble).

Nancy is finally out (Anton notes that he's always out when dancing the rumba! D'OH!!) with Audley being the other celebrity in the bottom two.

They were both abysmal tonight. At the top Jason and Holly are still looking like favourites,and whether Chelsee Healey has developed a crush on partner Pasha Kovalev or not, she's bottled it. Harry Judd gets high marks,but I have a feeling Jason will be ahead playing the family father figure card in the later stages of the competition.