ThunderCelt's L2 Anteposts

My L2 anteposts in 2011/12 were notable for being underwhelming. Anyway, I thought I'd record my 1012/13 attempts for fellow Betnoders to laugh at.

My tactics this season will be to start low and increase stakes as value becomes more apparent. I didn't want to get involved this early, but Rotherham and Fleetwood seem to be the moneybags of the division and their odds are already sliding. Rotherham seem to be bringing in quality; Fleetwood at the moment need to be taken 'on trust' as they haven't been busy in the market yet.

Bank is 2,000 units.

Rotherham 100 units, SkyBet, 4/1
Fleetwood 45 units, 10/1

Thanks Punter. Yeah, the 27 hours since the play-off seems to have crawled by. Only 82 days to go.

Bet365 became the first bookie I've seen to release prices for promotion. There were a couple of prices I was looking out for but both are too short for me. B365 don't seem to be giving anything away that tempts.

Rotherham and Fleetwood have both come in a little from the prices I took for winning the league.

Promotion odds are beginning to come out, but at this stage I think the bookies have been very cautious. Fleetwood are making some nice signings but are too short for me at 11/8 (edit to correct price). Chesterfield and Northampton intererst me, but at 3/1 and 4/1 again are shorter than I'd have them. However, both have difficult starts so might be longer at the beginning of September.

At the other end, Barnet are losing some of their better players and are the team I'm looking out for when the relegation prices come out. They too have a tricky start so may well come in after a couple of weeks.

I've already taken BetVic's 21/20 for Port Vale to beat Barnet on the opening day. Of course it's much to early to take squad lists seriously, but at this very early stage Barnet seem to have a lot of rebuilding to do and I'd be the other side of evens for the home win - like a lot of other bookies.

And Bristol Rovers/Oxford draw. We've only got last year to go on, but with Oxford having the same manager who aims to keep the core of the squad I'd expect more of the same - and Oxford drew over one in three last year. The sides are likely to be something like evenly matched, and my early tentative price is a few percent different than the best 5/2 BetVic are offering.

Actually there might be some legs in Port Vale at 10/1 for promotion. Micky Adams has done well in both managerial spells, and guided them to a decent finish last year despite administration. A new buyer is on the cards so finances could be settled. The loss of Richards up front will be a blow and I'd want to see who comes in. In the last few years unfancied teams have often made the play-offs - Aldershot , Accrington, and Dagenham in the last four(?) seasons and at the price Vale might just be value to be this year's surprise but I'll wait and see for a while - but not for too long because their opening fixtures could be a lot worse.

Didnt know the fixtures had come out,TC.Must be the first time Ive missed them since I was a kid!

Ten speculative units on Accrington to be promoted at 365's 20/1. New directors have put some money in, and the handful of players linked with them (eg Brett Ormerod) seem pretty decent. Also a well-run club. I'd only give them an outside chance, but I wouldn't have Accy among the rank outsiders, either and I think there's a little value here.

20 points on Aldershot to be promoted at B365 (15/2). The side was strengthened during the second half of the season and gradually climbed the table, but sadly too late for a serious play-off push. Eight of the side who took the Shots on the good run are still there, and the three remaing places seem to have been filled by credible replacements. We do lack a bit of depth at the back (plently of time for additional signings though) and we probably don't have the budget to compate with some of the bigger clubs. While I think we'll probably do okay we probably need a bit of good fortune to trouble the play-offs, but I'm happy to let the heart rule the head and have a small punt

100 units on Barnet to go down at at 3/1, which seems a bit long for a side thet has escaped the drop by the skin of their teeth the last couple of years. They've also god an untested manager, off-field problems (ground problems) and losing McLeod and last year's captain, whose name escapes me. Their first few games look generally 'challenging' so they could well have shortened by mid-September.

There are a couple of other relegation prices that interest, but I'm trying not to be tempted.

Also taken 50 units on Bradford to be promoted at 5/1. Reasoning has already been given by Punter elsewhere - that they've built a decent side.

Also 25 points on Bet365's season bet for Aldershot to finish above Wimbledon at 4/5 . The Wombles are an unknown quality having largely rebuilt, but still have the impressive Jack Midson up front. There's also some emphasis on youth. The Shots have recruited kept the bulk of last year's squad together and supplemented them with quality, and I think we'll have a good season.

I've had my fingers stung by getting into the top goalscorer markets this early in the season, but I can't resist BetVic's offering of Rene Howe at 25/1 EW top 4. He's already got three on top of the fifteen he got last year. 10 units on each element of the EW bet.

Dagenham, 80 units to be relegated, 3/1 (general). I think Dagenham were expected to be among the strugglers and they've borne that out with onlt two points from four games. I wanted to see how things started for them before leaping in, which I've now done.

Thundercelt!Long time no speak.Hows Things?

Anyway,enough preamble.

Port Vale! You said they were possibly a fair bet at 10s for promotion and now theyre 10s for the bleedin league,outplaying everyone with their shit hot wingers. ......yet you dont appear to have bet on them!?

Now of course Im aware of their financial woe but hey thats why theyre 10 or even 12-1.

Im absolutely dying to stick a not insignificant sum(1.75 points) on em just before their 6-pointer with the Mighty Gills...but I cant until Ive consulted the leading League 2 expert(on betnod).

Whats the verdict?

Is this the best bet since the Hole in One Gang or is it tantamount to betting that Cliff Richard is caught in a 3 in a bed session with Paris Hilton and Boy George! (this year)


(Yes,this does mean that Ive failed to hang on to February before splashing out-Jesus Christ,this is looking like THE season to be doing antepost accas...My God......cant believe youre gonna be doing singles....)

Cheers

(Of course,it may be wise to wait for the Gills result but I may or may not already have an interest in them,innit?)

er,forgive me for implying that your expertise may be limited to betnod!!!God forbid!
Actually,I dont know a single other league 2 expert!!Which makes you the leading League 2 expert in the World as far as I know!!

Hello hotspur. Yeah, I'm fine, hope you are.

Expert. You humble me.

Anyway, Port Vale. No, I didn't back them. . Too worried about the effects of administration and the loss of Richards.

They've obviously hit the ground running and haven't had a particularly easy set of fixtures so are up there on merit and have a decent first eleven.

I think they've been unchanged in every league match so far which is obviously helpful for continuity, and if they can keep the team together they'll probably do well. My first concern would be whether they've got the depth to cope with injuries and suspensions if they all come along at once, as well as losing players in the window. I don't think they've got the depth of some of the other sides but to be fair I don't know a great deal about their benchwarmers.

I also don't know enough about how administration works. I guess if they can wipe off the debts and get an injection of cash from new owners then they'll strengthen, but on the other hand is there a chance they'll have to cut their cloth and lose some of the higher earners in January? (Repeat, I don't know how admin works and what the risks are).

I hope this vague ramble is some help!

Thanks,yes,they will certainly need a lot of luck with injuries.

Its simply that after the Gills game they will/should have a long run of easier games and therefore,Rotherham looking not that great,they could be 3 clear in January whereupon youd expect them to be....hhmmmmm...a tricky one....4-1!!?

Depends on how good Fleetwood are of course.

OK 5-1..........but then if someone buys them? Like you I dont know ...Ok youve talked me into only putting 1.5 points on!

btw the only game they lost was at accrington....and they shouldve won that one too!

A sumjmary of progress for my interest (and anybofy else who cares) as we're about 20% of the way through the season (doesn't time fly?) and it's a month end.

L2 winner
Rotherham 100 units at 4/12 and Fleetwood 45 units at 10/1
Fleetowwod third and Rotherham mid-table. I still reckon the Millers will come good, but they neded to do it soon otherwise they'll have a lot of ground to make up. I'll probably hedge at some stage, but at the moment it doesn't look like a win in the 'winner' section.

Promotion
Accrington 10pts at 20/1, Aldershot 20 points at 15/2, and Bradford 50 points at 5/1.
Aldershot are underachieving while Bradford and Accrington are both in the play-off places. I excpect Bradford to stay there, but Accy would only be a bonus. Again, I expect to hedge and hope to break even here.

Relegation
Barnet 100 pts at 3/1, Dagenham 80 pts at 3/1.
Dagenham are just above the dange zone, while Barnet look in a bit of trouble. The Bees have strengthened a bit and their last two performances have seen improvements. I still expect one of these two to go down and show me a profit.

Season match bet
Aldershot to beat Wimbledon, 25 units at 4/5.
On paper Aldershot have a much better team. On the pitch it's not turning out there;s much difference. On balance I'd still expect this bet to come in, but The Shots are making it closer than I'd expected.

Top scorer
Rene Howe 10 pts (20 total stake) at 25/1 each way top 4
Rene sits joint fourth. If the season ended now I'd have a very small profit.

Summary - 450 units staked. If the regular season ened now, assuming I hedged Accrinton and Bradford in the play-offs, I'd have a profit of around 150 units, but last year it all went wrong from Christmas onward so I'm not counting on any profit (or loss) yet.

Thanks Punter. I don't think I picked much in the way of value apart from maybe Barnet being too long but I'm benefitting from the league going to a lot of people's expectations so far.

I've no idea what's gone wrong with the Shots. We've got a fringe-of-the-play-offs squad so I too would be surprised if we don't turn it around at some stage.