ThunderCelt's L2 Anteposts

100 units on Aldershot to be relegated at 8/1. I think we'll pull away eventually but at the moment our support generally agree that we're in the bottom two very much on merit. We've got three very difficult games coming up (Gillingham, Rotherham, Southend) so I'd assume things will get worse before they get better. If I'm right, there should be some decent hedging opportunities coming up.

BetVic's 8/1 is well out of line - the next best is 6/1. While I don't think we'll go down, I do think the 8/1 is on the generous side.

31 units Cheltenham top 7 finish at Vic's 9/4. The reasoning is that me, hotspur and Punter all seem to think it's value.

...and if I had a Corals account (I don't, which will change at some stage) I'd also have a nibble at their standout 7/1 for Dagenham to go down.

40 pts on Gillingham to win at the general 7/2. It's largely a hedge, but also it's probably not bad for a side three points clear at this stage of the season.

30 units on BetVic's 'Best of the relegated teams' Rochdale, at a generous looking 4/1. (The others are Chesteerfield, Exeter and Wycombe.) Not a highly likely winner, but I don't think 4/1 either. I've have it at around 5/2 or 3/1

30 more points on Gillingham at the general 7/4 - simply because they and Port Vale are pulling away.

I was going to keep my powder dry for a few weeks as I'm using my bank quicker than I would have liked, but I can't ignore Hills' standout 2/1 for Gillingham to come first (Bet365 are as low as 11/10). 30 units. (Edit - very quickly come into 6/4 now.)

100 points Wimbledon to be relegated at the general 7/4. They look like being there or thereabouts and have a couple of losable games coming up so may will be shorter by Christmas.

Here's a roundup of where I am to date.

Winner -
100 units on Rotherham (4/1).
45 units on Fleetwood (10/1)
100 units on Gillingham (various prices returning 353 units)
At the moment it's Gillingham with the other two fading. Showing a profit at the moment, but may have to hedge on Port vale and Cheltenham which'll bite into it.

Promotion:
10 units Accrington at 20/1
20 units Aldershot at 15/1
30 units on Bradford at 5/1
At the moment Bradford are the only side anywhere near and unless they run away with auto promotion this section is unlikely to break even.

Top 7 finish
31 units on Cheltenham at 9/4


Top relegated team
30 units Rochdale at 4/1
'Dale have fallen away recently so it looks like bets on Chesterfield and/or Exeter in due course and maybe a small loss on the section.

Relegated
100 units Barnet at 4/1
80 units Dagenham at 3/1
100 units Aldershot at 8/1
100 units Wimbledon at 7/4
It's looking very close at the bottom and I doubt I've finished here yet. But I do seem to have got the teams at decent prices so I'm hopeful of a profit.

Season match bet
25 units 4/5 Aldershot to beat Wimbledon
Losing at the moment, but could still go either way.

Top scorer
10 units (20 overall) 15/1 EW Rene Howe (Torquay)
I've given up on this. He started well but ain't scored for ages now. But it always was speculative.

At the moment if the league finished now it'd be an overall profit but with half a season to go I'm not counting chickens.

10 units Wycombe top relegated team, BetVic, 25/1

Jamie Cureton (Bristol R) 30 units (60 total) 6/1 Each Way top scorer (1,2,3, 1/4 odds).

More in hope than expectation of runaway top scorer Tom Pope getting a move to a bigger club in the window. Cureton is sort of on his own in second and at age 37 seems unlikely to go to a higher division. Either way, could be an Each Way steal.

50 units Rotherham to be promoted, evens, Bet365.

50 units Exeter to be promoted, 7/2, BetVic
20 Units Oxford to be promoted, 10/1, BetVic

200 units Port Vale Champions, 17/10 Paddy

100 units, Exeter top relegated club, 10/11 BetVic

75 units, Exeter top relegated club, 4/5 BetVic

10 pts Wycombe to be promoted, 22/1 Bet365

20 Units, Accrington to be relegated, Bet365 (taken this morning while BetNod was down; since shortened).

Edit - and 30 more points at Sky's 6/4

20 units Wycombe to be relegated, 80/1, Bet365