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Welsh Premier play-off May 19th

Discussion in 'Football Betting' started by traeth, May 16, 2012.

  1. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,037
    these odds from Ladbrokes

    Llanelli v Bala Town 1.72 3.20 4.33
    traeth, May 16, 2012
    #1
  2. pg_yid

    pg_yid Member

    Messages:
    120
    Don't think I'll be putting a bet on this, the odds seem about right to me. If I had to bet I would go for Bala on a + asian handicap.
    pg_yid, May 16, 2012
    #2
  3. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,037
    hi pg , thinking on the same lines here , no asian handicap out yet but I'm considering Bala Town /draw double chance which is evens with Paddy Power , I'll wait for some of the others to offer a better price
    traeth, May 17, 2012
    #3
  4. pg_yid

    pg_yid Member

    Messages:
    120
    Hi traeth, yeah in my mind I had Bala and Llanelli as relatively equal teams, with Llanelli shading it, but then I saw they actually finished ten points above Bala and they won 3 out of the 4 head to heads. A couple of things to consider may be the fact that these playoff games have been tight, which means a signficant chance of the draw, and the fact that Llanelli's attendances have been very poor lately, reducing the home advantage slightly. Even so I'm not sure I want to part with my money here, but we'll see what the odds are closer to the time.
    pg_yid, May 17, 2012
    #4
  5. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,037
    I watched the Llanelli v Aber game last Saturday live on S4C, it was dire .
    Aber were playing with 10 men from 6 minutes onwards , Llanelli just didn't perform and they had no urgency . Llanelli did not look interested , the only goal was scored in extra time when an Aber defender slipped. There was 28 points between Llanelli and Aber , with Aber playing the second half of the season against the bottom six clubs whilst Bala Town played the top six sides so that 10 points between Llanelli and Bala Town is not a big factor for me. I think that Bala Town are a more motivated club even though their squad is inferior to Llanelli. Home advantage should benefit Llanelli but Bala Town may relish playing on a decent pitch.
    Bala Town at 100/30 is a big price in my opinion
    traeth, May 17, 2012
    #5
  6. pg_yid

    pg_yid Member

    Messages:
    120
    I watched that game as well. Agree, it was not a classic. I thought Aber defended well, considering they had 10 men. Llanelli missed some easy chances though. I agree Bala are more motivated. Llanelli have qualified for Europe for the last five seasons (I think), but Bala are showing the greater ambition as a club now.

    Having thought about it, I'm actually going to bet on unders. 2.5 with William Hill. This represents a 40% chance, whilst Llanelli's games overall in the WPL have been 50% unders, and Bala's have been 45%. Add to this the fact that you'd expect it to be cautious, due to the importance of the occasion. Betting on unders in the WPL is a bit of a throw of the dice, as you never know when an error will gift someone a goal. But considering the stats I'm confident value is on unders.
    pg_yid, May 18, 2012
    #6
  7. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,037
    My money is on Bala Town .
    A safer bet would be Bala Town +0.5 @ 1.93
    I would find it difficult betting on unders in the Welsh league , good luck with your bet pg
    traeth, May 19, 2012
    #7
  8. pg_yid

    pg_yid Member

    Messages:
    120
    Yeah I know what you mean, but I have to follow where I think the value is. Is only a small bet this time though. I would want odds against for the +0.5 AH. Good luck.
    pg_yid, May 19, 2012
    #8

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