Ireland v Italy.
Traeth asked me for my (expert) opinion!! so here goes without being biased.
Ireland, We have better players overall, some may be getting on a bit, but thats experience and they are fresh as they have been rested since the Australia game. We have better players to call on from the bench too. When I say better, they are not miles better, just better. We have beaten Italy the last 15 times we have played them, so we generally have the upper hand. Ireland are totally inconsistent, they were rubbish in the six nations, England came to Dublin and needed to win for a grand slam...and Ireland played them off the park. Then Ireland went back to their old ways and were beaten in the World Cup warm up games by England, Scotland and France twice, they were poor against the USA and then they played tournament 2nd favourites Australia off the park. They then rested 12 players against Russia and beat them easy. There is a big blow out coming, and its going come in this World Cup, when time will catch up on some of the Irish players, but that blow out will not happen against the Italians, it will more than likely happen against Wales.
Italy, they have been shafted like all the smaller nations by the IRB, they have played a game on the 21st, 27th and now tomorrow. Something I have noticed about Italy in all their games, and that is the much weaker second half display. They were carved open by the Aussie's in the second half and then even though they won easy against Russia, they notably tired in the last 15 mins and found it hard to track down space out wide. They were out on their feet, 6 days ago, when they got the penalty try and bonus point against the USA, the only score of the second half. The Italian plan is a big opening salvo of power, it will be blow for blow in the first half and very tight. Ireland have reserves (Sexton & Reddan) to exploit those wide spaces when Italy tire and they are bound to after so many games in a short space of time.
So its difficult to see which team to take on the handicap, Ireland and Italy games are normally close, but maybe if I was pushed to choose I would favour the Italy +12. But going on what I know and I have mentioned above : Ireland -6.5 2nd Half Handicap, 4/5 Bet365