Champions League Betting 20-21st November

[slick]

UEFA Champions League
20 Nov 17:00 UK BATE Borisov v Lille 2.00 3.20 3.25
20 Nov 17:00 UK Spartak Moscow v Barcelona 7.00 4.40 1.33
20 Nov 19:45 UK Benfica v Celtic 1.44 3.80 6.00
20 Nov 19:45 UK CFR Cluj v Braga 2.62 3.10 2.40
20 Nov 19:45 UK Galatasaray v Man Utd 2.10 3.20 3.00
20 Nov 19:45 UK Juventus v Chelsea 1.80 3.50 3.50
20 Nov 19:45 UK Nordsjaelland v Shakhtar Donetsk 7.00 4.40 1.33
20 Nov 19:45 UK Valencia v Bayern Munich 2.90 3.30 2.10
21 Nov 17:00 UK Zenit St Petersburg v Malaga 1.80 3.30 3.80
21 Nov 19:45 UK Ajax v Borussia Dortmund 3.30 3.40 1.91
21 Nov 19:45 UK Anderlecht v AC Milan 2.62 3.10 2.40
21 Nov 19:45 UK Arsenal v Montpellier 1.30 4.60 7.50
21 Nov 19:45 UK Dynamo Kiev v Paris Saint-Germain 2.62 3.10 2.40
21 Nov 19:45 UK Man City v Real Madrid 3.00 3.50 2.00
21 Nov 19:45 UK Porto v Dinamo Zagreb 1.12 6.50 13.00
21 Nov 19:45 UK Schalke 04 v Olympiacos 1.44 3.80 6.00

Odds William Hill

 

[Punter]

I fancy Man City to do a job on Real Madrid, i think they'll be all out in an attempt to salvage a poor campaign. They nearly did the job in Madrid only to fail to two very late goals. The visitors will know they've a tough task to get anything here and the crowd will play a part.
I think i'm right in saying that City dont just need to win, but to win by two clear goals if they are to have any chance of qualifying, should the two teams finish on the same points??

Anyway
City to win @ 11/5
City -1 @ 6/1

Stan James

 

[ONEDUNME]

Looking at the rules Kop, if it's just Real and City that tie then, yes, I reckon you're right, it's just a straight head to head between the two.


7.06 If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches,
the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings (in descending
order):
a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the
teams in question;
b) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams
in question;
c) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the
teams in question;
d) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches
played among the teams in question;
e) if, after having applied criteria a) to d), two teams still have an equal
ranking, criteria a) to d) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between
the two teams in question to determine their final rankings. If this
procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) to h) apply;
f) superior goal difference from all group matches played;
g) higher number of goals scored from all group matches played;
h) higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the club in question,
as well as its association, over the previous five seasons (see

 

[rcgills]

In that case a 1-0 or 2-1 win would still be OK for City in the event of a tied H2H with Madrid, based on criterion d), wouldn't it?

 

[Punter]

I'm wrong then, no? I thought H2H between the two was the outcome in the event of a tie on points?

 

[rcgills]

I'm wrong then, no? I thought H2H between the two was the outcome in the event of a tie on points?

It is. But if it finishes 1-0 or 2-1 to City, then according to ODM's list of criteria:

a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question; - 3 POINTS EACH, SO TIED
b) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question; - 0 GOAL DIFFERENCE FOR BOTH SIDES, SO TIED AGAIN
c) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question; - BOTH WOULD HAVE SCORED EITHER 3 OR 4 GOALS, SO TIED AGAIN
d) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;- CITY GOT 2 AWAY GOALS, MADRID WOULD HAVE 0 OR 1, SO CITY FINISH HIGHER.

From what I can see, a 1 goal win for City would only screw them over if it was something like 4-3, 5-4, etc. (a 3-2 would mean it came down to overall goal difference if they finished level with Madrid).

 

[Punter]

From the Telegraph, for City..

• Dortmund draw with Ajax and Real draw with Ajax = BD9, RM8, MC8, A6 ... City finish second if they beat Real by two goals, or one goal if they score four or more in that match, a 3-2 win means they need a better overall goal difference than real (currently need six goal swing)

Worst case scenario
If Ajax and Dortmund draw in Amsterdam in the next round of fixtures City are in trouble. Should that happen they will need another draw between Real Madrid and Ajax in Spain to avoid missing out. Even then they would need to have beaten Real by two clear goals, or one goal if they score four or more, or if the match against the Spanish champions had finished 3-2 to City, then Mancini's side would need to finish with a better overall goal difference than Real (currently need a six goal swing).

Fingers crossed
If Dortmund beat Ajax, then all is not lost but City are still walking a tightrope. They will qualify if Ajax win in Madrid on the final match day. If Real beat Ajax, as expected, City won't go through, but if the Dutch side earn a draw at the Bernabeu the same requirements of a two goal win having been secured over Real, or the goal difference swing if the score was 3-2, remain.

Hope springs
By far the most helpful result in Amsterdam would be an Ajax win over Dortmund. Were that to happen (and again, remember, this all rests on City winning both of their own games), then a positive result for either team when Ajax go to Madrid would see City through. A draw in that match, in this scenario, would remarkably see all four teams end up with eight points and the top two decided by cumulative goal difference.

Can it really happen?
Unlikely, of course. Left relying on Ajax to win in the Bernabeu (they lost 4-1 at home), or hoping for Dortmund to be as poor in Amsterdam as City were themselves, is the very definition of clutching at straws. And the whole thing falls down if City drop a point or more against the Champions of Spain or a Dortmund side who dominated them at home.

Results
06/11 Real Madrid 2 Borussia Dortmund 2
06/11 Manchester City 2 Ajax 2
24/10 Borussia Dortmund 2 Real Madrid 1
24/10 Ajax 3 Manchester City 1
03/10 Manchester City 1 Borussia Dortmund 1
03/10 Ajax 1 Real Madrid 4
18/09 Real Madrid 3 Manchester City 2
18/09 Borussia Dortmund 1 Ajax 0

Fixtures
21/11 19:45 Ajax – Borussia Dortmund
21/11 19:45 Manchester City – Real Madrid
04/12 19:45 Real Madrid – Ajax
04/12 19:45 Borussia Dortmund – Manchester City

Table
P W D L F A GD PTS
Borussia Dortmund 4 2 2 0 6 4 2 8
Real Madrid 4 2 1 1 10 7 3 7
Ajax 4 1 1 2 6 8 -2 4
Manchester City 4 0 2 2 6 9 -3 2

Regulations
Teams level on points are separated by:
1) The results of games between the teams in the tie (if tied, by goal difference and then by away goals counting double).
2) Goal difference in all group games.
3) Highest number of goals scored in all games.
4) Highest Uefa ranking over the previous five seasons.

Possible scenarios (should City win both of their matches)
• Dortmund beat Ajax and Real beat Ajax = BD11, RM10, MC8, A4 ... City finish third

• Dortmund beat Ajax and Real draw with Ajax = BD11, RM8, MC8, A5 ... City finish second if they beat Real by two goals, or one goal if they score four or more in that match, a 3-2 win means they need a better overall goal difference than real (currently need six goal swing)

• Dortmund beat Ajax and Real lose to Ajax = BD11, MC8, RM7, A7 ... City finish second
---

• Dortmund draw with Ajax and Real beat Ajax = RM10, BD9, MC8, A5 ... City finish third

• Dortmund draw with Ajax and Real draw with Ajax = BD9, RM8, MC8, A6 ... City finish second if they beat Real by two goals, or one goal if they score four or more in that match, a 3-2 win means they need a better overall goal difference than real (currently need six goal swing)

• Dortmund draw with Ajax and Real lose to Ajax = BD9, A8, MC8 RM7 ... City finish third due to Ajax's better head-to-head record
---

• Dortmund lose to Ajax and Real beat Ajax = RM10, MC8, BD8, A7 ... City finish second due to better head-to-head with Dortmund

• Dortmund lose to Ajax and Real draw with Ajax = MC8, BD8, RM8, A8 ... City's final position determined by goal difference

• Dortmund lose to Ajax and Real lose to Ajax = A10, MC8, BD8, RM7 ... City finish second due to better head-to-head with Dortmund

 

[rcgills]

Even then they would need to have beaten Real by two clear goals, or one goal if they score four or more, or if the match against the Spanish champions had finished 3-2 to City, then Mancini's side would need to finish with a better overall goal difference than Real (currently need a six goal swing).

It's 2:45am here and I'm knackered, so my brain not be working properly, but haven't the Telegraph got that completely the wrong way round? If City win by one goal and score 4 or more, that means Madrid will score 3 or more. As they say themselves, away goals effectively count double for the purposes of the H2H, so in that case Madrid would have more away goals (and the H2H would be an aggregate tie, so it would come down to away goals) and therefore finish above City. Wouldn't they?

 

[Punter]

Lol, my brains mashed too Rc, i think i'll just sit back and see what happens lol

 

[Sportsbts]

Anderlecht - Milan

Milan this time travel to Brussel where this time will play with Anderlecht. Situation in this group is really interesting, still three teams have a chance for second place, Zenit 3 points, Anderlecht 4 points and Milan 5 points. Milan presented very good football in last round Serie A where draw with Napoli 2-2. Last game at Giusseppe Meazza played with Malaga and draw only 1-1, however this was not good result for coach Allegri and his team. Milan played with Napoli in this defence line De Sciglio, Mexes, Acerbi and Constant. All showed good form and I think Allegri will use the same line today. Milan scored two goals by El Shaarawy who is in life form now, first assist in this game De Sciglio was so great. Milan attack looks more powerfull than Anderlecht for sure, Alexandre Pato and Bojan looks good now. Anderlecht lost only with Malaga and Genk in last 20 games in Brussel!!Milan can win here and I belive in Italian team today.

Pick: Milan

Odds: 2.63

 

[Sportsbts]

Champions League - Injuries & suspensions

Zenit St Petersburg v Málaga CF
Zenit St Petersburg: Hulk, Fayzulin (both probably in), Criscito, Bystrov (doubtful)
Málaga CF: Iturra, Monreal, Sánchez, Júlio Baptista, Kameni, Joaquín, Saviola

AFC Ajax v Borussia Dortmund
AFC Ajax: Babel, Alderweireld
Borussia Dortmund: -

Anderlecht v AC Milan
Anderlecht: Vargas
AC Milan: Ambrosini, Abate, Bonera, Antonini

Arsenal FC v Montpellier HSC
Arsenal FC: Fabiański, André Santos, Walcott, Diaby, Rosický
Montpellier HSC: Camara, Utaka, Aït-Fana, Stambouli, Hilton

Dynamo Kiev v Paris St. Germain
Dynamo Kiev: Raffael, Kranjčar, Mikhalik
Paris St. Germain: Bodmer (doubtful), Jallet, Gameiro, Ménez

FC Porto v Dinamo Zagreb
FC Porto: Fernando, Alex Sandro (both probably out), Maicon
Dinamo Zagreb: Rukavina

Manchester City v Real Madrid
Manchester City: Clichy (probably out), Balotelli (doubtful), Richards
Real Madrid: Essien, Marcelo, Higuaín, Morata

Schalke 04 v Olympiakos Pireus
Schalke 04: Afellay (probably out), Uchida, Metzelder (both doubtful)
Olympiakos Pireus: -​

 

[slick]

Hi and welcome to Betnod Sportsbts, nice pick on Milan.