Cheltenham Day 1. Tuesday 14/3/23

[ONEDUNME]

Sean has already put some thoughts up on on trainers to follow and I know a few have antepost bets which are worth repeating in here. Myself, I only have Noble Yeats which I've backed at Cheltenham and for the National so I'm hoping to get at least one decent run for my money.

http://betnod.com/threads/trainer-to-follow-cheltenham-festival.11148/


The festival has sparked little interest in me this year and, rather than looking months in advance, I've only just finished looking at the first two races. I'll past my response to Sean here regarding the first two races and come back later with my other losers.

I've just picked Hollow Games out as a bit of potential value myself mate. Only looked at the two races so far and with the 210 being set up as pretty much a match bet, we all know how those often turnout with another horse coming from behind and picking up the pieces. Saint Roi will be the most popular ew bet of the race but Hollow Games at 40/1 will do for me.
For what it's worth, I think we could see a decent priced winner in the first as well. I'm going for Strong Leader at 50/1 and Inthepocket at a much smaller 12s. Still looking at the other races.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Just a thought on the ground situation. We've had rain, snow and now a gale is blowing itself over the track as I type which means the going could be all over the place. Good to soft is normally odds on every year as they aim for that kind of ground but it was on the soft side on Friday and we don't know to what extent this wind is drying it out. Must be a fucking nightmare for the clerk of the course to know what to do regarding watering. My view is they should leave the fucker to let nature take its course. Whatever happens between now and tomorrow, it's going to be safe ground.

Oh, and my point, the uncertainty in the ground is an even better reason to look for some big priced outsiders to grab a place or even better.

 

[Sean]

Cheltenham Day 1 (Top 3) My Ratings - Tuesday 14th March

1.30 (1) Il Etait Temps (2) Facile Vega / Marine Nationale (3) Inthepocket
2.10 (1) Jonbon (2) El Fabiolo (3) Saint Roi
2.50 (1) Into Overdrive (2) Monbeg Genius (3) Karl Phillipe
3.30 (1) Constitutional Hill (2) State Man (3) I Like To Move It
4.10 (1) Maries Rock (2) Honeysuckle (3) Epatante
4.50 (1) Sir Allen (2) Bad (3) Tekao
5.30 (1) Gaillard Du Mesnil (2) Mahler Mission (3) Chemical Energy / Coolvalla

 

[Sean]

2.50 Happy Go Lucky 14/1 is my sole bet of the day .. a win and a place over CD , and overall at the track he's got a win and three places from 5 runs (2 runs at the festival and placed in both - came in this race from a 5lb higher mark) . Trainer Kim Bailey runs just this one and jockey David Bass also here for this one and he has 4 wins and 3 places from 10 rides. 14s looks reasonable so an each way to nothing for me

**Added Corach Rambler 6/1 (win) in this race

 

[ONEDUNME]

My ones to avoid. As always, I will be busy during the day so will put up my reserves - the ones I'll be looking at should I get any non runners. Not to claim any credit should they win as I won't be on them if my original selections take part.

130 Inthepocket ew 12/1 and Strong Leader ew 50/1 both 4 places
Reserves Dark Raven could be interesting if its jumping holds up and I can't really see why Fenner Cross should be 100/1 (exchanges) but probably says more about my knowledge than the reality of its chances.

210 Hollow Games ew 40/1. I would prefer Jambon to the other joint fav, if I were to have a bet on either

250 I can see why Corach Rambler is the fav but at the prices, I'll go for Fantastikas at 16/1 6 places 12llbs lower than last year's run. I've missed the bigger prices on Monbeg Genius which looks like an obvious plot by Jonjo O'neil but i will still put a bit on the win at 9/1 and I can't leave out The Wolf which was in my Tracker , 40/1 6 places and just one more speculative crazy shot, Martin Pipe has one with a British Debut at 50/1 Iceo Madrik

Most people probably won't have a bet in the 330 and I haven't picked one out either

410 Hot race and I'm looking forward to watching it but probably no bet. If I'm up, I may go for Shewaresitwell or Queensbrook ew without the fav but as I won't be up, it will be largely irrelevant lol

450 Risk Belle fell last time out and that's not a great boost for a run at Cheltenham but it was travelling and jumping well until that fall and anything can make one mistake so I will give it a chance at 12/1 and drifting . Ludas 28/1 is also drifting, as are Mighty Mo missouri and Romancero le Dun. Let's face it, I've got no fucking chance have I ? l0l

If you're an in running backer, keep an eye on the Mcmanus horse Sundial. When I looked at the form, I thought it looked like it was on a mark that they would want it to be and I watched its last run expecting to see that it had been trotted round in order to get the required mark without being given a hard time but what I saw was a horse that didn't jump brilliantly, was bumped along part way around and was definitely ridden to get the best finish, all of which are probably negatives when looking at it's chances for tomorrow and yet it looks like it may be being backed.

530 looks another foregone conclusion so I've just gone with the money and backed Coolvalla ew without the fav at 14/1

 

[Punter]

Good Luck all

Just one for me tomorrow

2.50 - TOP VILLE BEN @ 35/1 – 6 places

I'm aiming at the place money here. Hasnt won a chase in three years but the run behind The Goffer lto was a very good run.
They must like him to of taken him over to Leopordstown for the race last month. Finished a very respectable 3/23

 

[SAMOAN]

2.10 - EFFERKNOCK FIZZ - Decent mare with some nice form and a good attitude. Probably aiming a bit high here, but can see her running well at 150's.

2.50 - THE BIG BREAKAWAY - Drop back in trip not ideal, but looks to finally be fulfilling his early potential and worth his place in this company at 16's.

4.50 - MORNING SOLDIER and MIGHTY MO MISSOURI - MS showed a good turn of foot last time and has the tongue tie added at 33's. MMM handles the ground, has a promising 7lb claimer booked and can run his race at 40's.

5.30 TENZING - Lightly raced enough to find the improvement he needs at 16's.

 

[ONEDUNME]

2.10 - EFFERKNOCK FIZZ - Decent mare with some nice form and a good attitude. Probably aiming a bit high here, but can see her running well at 150's.

2.50 - THE BIG BREAKAWAY - Drop back in trip not ideal, but looks to finally be fulfilling his early potential and worth his place in this company at 16's.

4.50 - MORNING SOLDIER and MIGHTY MO MISSOURI - MS showed a good turn of foot last time and has the tongue tie added at 33's. MMM handles the ground, has a promising 7lb claimer booked and can run his race at 40's.

5.30 TENZING - Lightly raced enough to find the improvement he needs at 16's.

Looks like Morning Soldier is a non runner mate. I did look at Effernock and Tenzing but then again I think I've considered backing most horses in every race. It's the nature of the festival

 

[Seen]

1.30 - IL ETAIT TEMPS (win), CHASING FIRE (ew), RARE EDITION (ew)
2.10 - SAINT ROI (win)
2.50 - HAPPYGOLUCKY (ew), FANION D'ESTRUVAL (ew)
4.10 - BRANDY LOVE (win), QUEENS BROOK (ew)
4.50 - SHARED (ew), RISK BELLE (ew), AFADIL (ew)
5.30 - MINELLA CROONER (win)

 

[Seen]

SHARED in the 4.50 looks very interesting to me at a massive price (50/1 books, 85.0 Betfair). Won both times he's raced left handed over hurdles, and lost on his only start going the other way around when hanging left throughout at Musselburgh.

Raced 6 times on the flat but was just too slow, and his running style suggests that he will benefit from a strong pace on a stiff track like he will get today. In-running I fancy he'll hit a massive price mid-race as he always get tapped for toe before staying on again - hit 44.0 on Betfair at Doncaster last time before winning (SP just 4/1) - and I'll be backing it at current odds of 80 and also various prices right up to 1000

7/1 in the 6 to be placed market on Betfair looks a decent bet too.

This race has seen plenty of big priced winners in the past and trainer Harry Derham has had a great start to his new career (25% strike rate).

 

[Sean]

Cheltenham Day 1 (Top 3) - Tuesday 14th March

1.30 (1) Il Etait Temps (2) Facile Vega 2nd 9/4 / Marine Nationale

1st 9/2 (3) Inthepocket (EX £17.00)
2.10 (1) Jonbon 2nd 2/1 (2) El Fabiolo

1st 11/10 (3) Saint Roi 3rd 11/1 (EX £3.50 / TF £12.80)
2.50 (1) Into Overdrive (2) Monbeg Genius 3rd 6/1 (3) Karl Phillipe
3.30 (1) Constitutional Hill

1st 4/11 (2) State Man 2nd 7/2 (3) I Like To Move It (EX £1.70)
4.10 (1) Maries Rock (2) Honeysuckle

1st 9/4 (3) Epatante
4.50 (1) Sir Allen (2) Bad (3) Tekao
5.30 (1) Gaillard Du Mesnil

1st 10/11 (2) Mahler Mission (3) Chemical Energy 2nd 8/1 / Coolvalla

Cant be too unhappy with how the ratings done on day one , hopefully as good or better on day two

 

[ONEDUNME]

Wank day

 

[Seen]

Wank day

Same here!