English Premier League betting 20-21st September 2014

[Punter]

Odds from Bet365

 

[slick]

Tough set of fixtures this week with nothing jumping out at me with any value, Hull maybe worth a shout considering how dire Newcastle are at the moment but It's not one I'd feel confident about.

Spurs and Everton double maybe? or is that just scraping the barrel lol.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I was just going to reply to say that I'm with you on Everton but not Spurs (much as a rate the Spurs manager and think he will do well with them). That was based on something I've been doing for a few weeks but instead of just those two games I may as well post up the lot and, if they become profitable I'll create a thread for the rest of the season.

One of the things I was doing in between the world cup ending and the season beginning is having a bash at creating my own ratings - one that don't react in a knee-jerk fashion after every very good or very bad result for a team and also take into account the variation between home and away. It's obviously too early to say that they're worth taking any notice of but the results have been encouraging.

With that in mind, I'll post the bare predictions up and the value bets based on that. It's worth saying that my head doesn't always agree with my system (it's also worth saying that there will be no correlation between what I think will happen and my Betnod tipping comp' selections or IKTS or my super6 but that's because there are elements of hedging and a shotgun type approach in all of those but that's far too complicated to explain Simpler to say I probably need a psychotherapist) but I'll post them below

 

[ONEDUNME]

Will also be of interest (to me anyway) whether I'd be better off betting on the straight result predicted overall or adapting those predictions -for example, taking draw no bet instead of straight win. Or even adapting stakes based on the strength of the predictions eg 30pts for 3/3 strength and 10 pts 1/3 strength. Anyway, my intention is to have two P&L figures using straight 10pt bet at the best price below for one and stakes and odds for the "bet" posted below.

What I'd like to do where possible is change the outcome to 2 possibilities instead of the normal win -draw-win outcomes which I'm convinced is what makes me so shit at football betting as averaged out over the years.

Sorry if that's not explained very well but this is largely a notepad to paper test this shit so feel free to ignore.


QPR v Stoke - Away win best price 9/5 - was bigger earlier in the week (strength 3/3)
Bet Stoke DNB which I'm actually on at at even money. For the sake of comparison I'll say 20pt stake

Aston Villa v Arsenal - Away win best price 9/10 (vcbet -drifting) (strength 3/3)
Bet Arsenal win 9/10 20pt stake

Burnley v Sunderland - Draw 23/10 (Strength 1/3)
Now my stats slightly favour Burnley but they are close enough to make the draw the predicted outcome. Bearing in mind what I said above about trying to turn my bet into 2 outcomes instead of 3, I'm going to a draw bet at a much lower price than the draw with money back if burnley win - a home win no bet (most will be familiar with a draw no bet). Most bookies don't even offer this bet but (best price 19/20 with a bookie) but obviously the same bet can be placed by just adjusting stakes on the normal win draw bet market.

In this example, a stake of 20pts on 19/20 would obviously return a profit of 19 but if I split my 20pt stake and put 12 on the draw price at 23/10 and 8 on the burnley win price at 8/5 I would make a profit of 19.6 pts for the draw and a mini-profit of 0.8pts if Burnley win. These odds I like.
Bet Draw - Home win no bet 20pt stake to win 19.6 for draw and 0.8 pts for home win

Newcastle v Hull - Home win 5/4 (drifting) (Strength 1/3)
Ratings very close to predicting a draw but marginally going to home win. Prices don't allow for a saver bet on the draw so ..
Bet Home win 10 pts stake

Swansea v Southampton. Away win -best price 2/1 (shortening). Strength 1/3
As above, very close to predicting a draw (hence the low strength rating) but the away odds present the opportunity of reducing the outcomes to 2 with a draw no bet or Asian Handicap bet.
Bet Southampton DNB 11/10 10pts

WHU v Liverpool. No shocks here, Liverpool win 5/6 (Strength 3/3).
It's the odds on aways that would lead a man to the poor house in the long run and I'm going to apply a bit of logic here and reduce the stake of the bet, despite the strength of the forecast because the odds are so low.
Bet Liverpool 10 pts 5/6

Spurs v WBA. Draw 18/5 (Strength 2.5/3)
This is what I like about this thing so far, it isn't predicting every odds-odd team to win. Spurs are around 1/2 and will likely go on to win 4-1 but, I'm happy to take a chance on the longer term view.
Bet Draw 10pts 18/5

Everton v Palace. Everton 4/9 (Strength 2/3)
Of course it's inevitably going to agree with a lot of the odds on shots
Bet Everton 20pts 4/9

Man City v Chelsea. Although in it's infancy, this forecasting thingy is one of the main reasons that I was so bullish about the Arsenal Man City draw last week (which had a "strength" rating of 3/3). I know that on games between the top four or five, many revert to backing the draw as a default position but my ratings go for Chelsea (85/40 vcbet) - Strength 1.5/3
My bet will be Chelsea draw no bet which is best price of 23/20 (as is Asian Handicap for the same outcome) but again I can get a marginally better price on the 3 outcome market by backing Chelsea at 85/40 and the draw at 5/2.
Bet Chelsea 20pt staked to win 23.75 pts or 1 pt if it's a draw

Whoops, missed the Leicester Man United match out. Rather surprisingly, this throws up a Home win (Strength 2/3). As I said at the top. this doesn't take into account knee-jerk reactions and the down side of this is that it will take a while for what we can all see with our own eyes (i.e that United have improved immensely with the addition of some better players) to be reflected in the stats and therefore this is probably a false prediction. Nevertheless, I'm sticking with it and with Leicester a massive 19/4 shot (just over 9/2 for us traditionalists) it presents an opportunity to back them on the Asian Handicap, although I'm again intervening and cutting down the stakes.
Bet Leicester Asian hcap +0.75 43/40 10pts

 

[ONEDUNME]

150 pts staked in 5 x 20pt bets and 5 x 10pt bets. I'll do three sets of P&L figures initially (don't worry, I'll soon get bored after three losing weeks) based on

1. Bets outlined above (this is the raison 'd'etre for putting time into this as these would be my actual bets if it proved to be worth following) using prices and stakes quoted at the end of each match paragraph.

2. Bets using standard 10pt per game stakes at the win/draw/win price quoted at the start of each match paragraph

3. Bets based on prices quoted at the start of each match paragraph using stakes of 10x the strength rating - ie Leicester would be 20pts at 19/4, Spurs would be 25pts on the draw at 18/5.

I'm going for a long lie down in a darkened room

 

[slick]

Apart from Pool, great analysis on today's matches ODM.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks Slick. Encouraging start at least

1. Bets outlined above = +28.6pts

2. Bets using standard 10pt per game stakes at the win/draw/win price quoted = +22pts

3. Bets based on prices quoted at the start of each match paragraph using stakes of 10x the strength rating= Level (Thanks Liverpool - you're shit)

 

[traeth]

great start ODM , especially with a difficult set of fixtures yesterday

My experience ,when I tried my own rating system in the Welsh Premier a few years ago , was that I found value in the early months of the season. My system was a basic home and away rating system , by November my system had the teams ranked very similar to the home and away leagues. It was from December onwards that the value bets reduced and my belief in my system diminished.My system was in a totally different league though.

Good luck with this and I'll be interested to see how it goes

 

[Punter]

Nice start, good luck ODM.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Amazing game Leicester v United. Amazing.

That result puts all three methods in profit for the weekend and two of them guaranteed to make a profit whatever happens in the last two games. I've already worked out next week's bets so, with that profit to get rid of, I think I'll create a thread and put them in.

Scores on the doors
1. +29.35
2. +59.50
3. +70

 

[ONEDUNME]

Final settlement

1. Selected bets = +10.35pts

2. Bets using standard 10pt per game stakes at the win/draw/win price quoted = +39.50

3. Bets based on prices quoted at the start of each match paragraph using stakes of 10x the strength rating= +35