Eurovision Song Contest 7th - 11th May 2024

[Beanie]

Nothing in life is certain other than death, taxes, and Eurovision coming around more quickly than you wanted.

After Sweden's win last year, this year's contest is in Malmo in 2 weeks time.

Format changes this year:

• The Big 5, who auto qualify for the final, will perform during the semi finals. In previous years clips of their rehearsals were shown during the semi finals.
• Producers have more control of the running order during the final. Previously, countries would draw 1st half or 2nd half, and producers could place them anywhere in those halves. Now, 13 of the 25 slots will instead be 'producers choice' allowing them to place those songs anywhere in either half.
• Rehearsals are taking place this week but are more secretive than normal. Mostly just still images available.
• Voting format is unchanged from the 2023 contest. Semi final use only televoting, while the final uses both jury and televoting.

So far this year the main controversy has centred around Israeli participation - their initial song choice was rejected by the EBU and has been subsequently changed. Protests have called on other countries to boycott the contest because of Israel's participation, but ultimately none have done so.

Songs:

More this week, but get involved - the best betting night of the year .

 

[Beanie]

Rehearsal clips of all songs.

Semi final 1 on Tuesday night:

Semi final 2 on Thursday:

 

[Beanie]

A very open year, with none of the main contenders making a totally compelling case for the win. At the moment I've got Ukraine as the most likely winners, adding what looks like very effective staging to an excellent vocal, huge diaspora vote and solid televote from the rest of Europe.

The week is long however, so worth waiting for the full performances during the semis, and with more power with the producers it's not advisable to jump in too much before the running order is known in the early hours of Friday.

For Semi final 1, im trying to pickup anything around evens for Australia not to qualify. The song sounds ok in the studio, but dies a little on the big stage. The vocals are exposed and the interactions between the various performers look amateurish.

Betfair offering it not to qualify @ 2.10, which I think is worth a small play in a televote only semi final.

 

[Beanie]

Also, for a sneaky outsider for top 10 overall, Portugal currently trade at 16/1. The staging is excellently done, and if it can progress through the semi final then I think it will pickup some jury love in the final. 16/1 feels far too big for something that could pickup momentum as the week progresses.

 

[Beanie]

For Semi final 1, im trying to pickup anything around evens for Australia not to qualify. The song sounds ok in the studio, but dies a little on the big stage. The vocals are exposed and the interactions between the various performers look amateurish.

Betfair offering it not to qualify @ 2.10, which I think is worth a small play in a televote only semi final.

Australia miss out on the final, so a good start to the week.

For the second semi final im taking a small play on San Marino to qualify at 3.75.

Semi final 1 again showed that in a televote only semi final, the showy, eye catching stagings will often trump more competent, chart-friendly pop songs. San Marino have few traditional voting allies but the staging stands out in this crowd and in a weak semi final that might be enough to see it sneak over the line. Worth a play at these prices.

 

[slick]

Nice one Beanie, I've not had time to listen to anything yet but will get onto it as soon as I can lol.
After the last couple of years it's probably wise just to follow the bookies because they seem to know a lot more than their letting on.
I'll go through them all nonetheless and chuck my money away again

 

[Beanie]

Cheers slick .

San Marino missed q, and tbh didnt feel close after their performance. However, more important is the chaos in the betting markets overnight as Italian TV 'mistakenly' published their semi final televote results with Israel a country mile ahead - cue mayhem as Israel were trading at 50/1 at the time (now 3/1 2nd favourite).

EBU(who wont want the headaches they would get with an Israel win) reacted by giving Croatia/Switzerland/France the kindest running order draw possible - see below. Israel up early, Ukraine buried in the coffin slot, and other televote rivals such as Netherlands front loaded.

 

[slick]

I'll go through the songs top to bottom.
I won't post them all up as usual but will comment as i go through them and try and make a shorlist.

1 Sweden: seems a bit lame 4/10

2 Ukraine: This sounds catchy, oh a bit of rapping now to jazz it up a bit, yeah I can see this doing well 8/10

3 Germany: Chubby fella singing a ballad, he's not got a bad voice but seems to be trying a bit too hard to impress and suffering for it, lyrics are a bit bland , chorus is a bit cheesey 6/10

4 luxembourg: Youtube running like a bag of shit at the moment, doesnt sound as bad as the odds are suggesting, sounds like an intro to a French movie, I quite like this 7/10, shes struggling now on the high notes so that's a point docked lol 6/10

5 Netherlands: He looks a strange one, definitely going for the novelty aspect, bag of shite but lots of energy towards the end 4/10

6 Israel: Heres the controversial one, lets see if Golan can reach the heights (see what I did there), This sounds like a nice one, well it did before she tried to start singing deeply and sounded like a man, this song is up and down, she can hit some good notes then throws it all away on the what I would call easy bits lol, the whole song seems confused 4/10

7 Lithuania: Pretty average song and vocals, why's he got a cable clip on his nose? he'll definitely come last in the fashion stakes, he'd fit in well on a night out in Leigh, worst I've heard so far 3/10

8 Spain: This ain't bad, has that sunshine spanish nightclub vibe, this should get the hands clapping, I don't mind this , one of the best I've heard so far, Oh i've just spotted the blokes in the leather Y-Fronts, I'll deduct 2 points for that 8/10 6/10

9 Estonia: Sounds like one of those Russian knees up mother brown numbers, Lots of shouting and deep 'Boney M' voices, It's not great but sounded better than what I was expecting looking at the odds.

10 Ireland: Ireland never fail to impress usually, has a bit of the Bjorks about this, Ilike this very Theatrical and has the potential to do vey well, best I've heard so far by a long shot 9/10

11 Latvia: Right said Ted, This ain't bad , he's a decent singer and another that sounds a lot better than the odds suggest, I enjoyed that 7/10, could be worth a top 10 punt.

12 Greece: Oh fcuk, its not one of those , Oh Superman doop doop doop droning on and on lyrics through the song is it. No it isn't but it's still shite 2/10

13 UK: sounds a bit Gay, not that that's a bad thing nowadays, lots of fellas touching each other , can't see the Eastern Europeans going for this or me either truth be told, probably stands more chance of finishing last. 1/10

Interlude me thinks

 

[slick]

14 Norway: Sounds more Turkish than Norwegian, has a bit of the Shakiras about it, It sounded a bit bland initially but now it's growing on me, not growing that much mind, It's now starting to sound very noisy and muddled 5/10

15 Italy: As usual Italy one of the favs and I've never understood why because I don't usually find their songs that good, this is no different , sounds like a cheeky girl rip off 4/10

16 Serbia: Last in the betting this one, lets see if it's worse than ours then
Very slow, sounds like a Dirge, the budget for a Eurovision stage set and choreography must run into the tens of thousands and she's decided to sit on a rock, I never thought I'd say this but yes it's worse than the UK 1/10

17 Finland: Has he come out of an egg with fcuk all on his lower half? Yes he has That's 8 points docked straight away, WTF is this all about, without further ado it's been binned 1/10

18 Portugal: This has an Arabic sound to it, seems to be lacking something, doesn't have any verve about it whatsoever, she could do with a kick up the arse to get her going, boring 2/10

19 Armenia: Oohh! an Armenian jig, this is more lively, are those words or just sounds?
The latter me thinks, and for that lack of thought and creativity 3/10

20 Cyprus: This ain't bad, more of a usual Eurovision song than most others this year.
The best song I've heard for what seems quite a while, another one quite low down the betting than could well finish top 10, saying that it wasn't exactly pulling up trees and I may have been swayed because the last few I listened to have been shite 5/10

21 Switzerland: Another usual Eurovision entry that we're more accustomed to, saying that he's got a fcuking skirt on, what is it this year and the fragile lot.
This actually ain't that bad considering but he's getting 2 points docked for the skirt, that's not because I'm in anyway ahemm homophobic but because Like I Said I doubt the Eastern Europeans take to kindly to benders. 8/10

22 Slovenia: Not great but not the worst I've heard tonight either 5/10

Another Interlude

 

[slick]

23 Croatia: The bookies favourite so lets see what this is all about.
Baby fcuking Lasagne, don't tell me it's another one, Nope this time it's Adam with his pants.
First rock song I've heard all night, maybe rock is due a win so that's why it's favourite?
it's not that great though is it, nah not for me , I was expecting a lot more than that. 7/10

24 Georgia: The usual fare, this must be the 10th time I've heard s song like this tonight, no better or worse than the others either 5/10

25 France: nice song but dull as dishwater, he tried to jazz it up a bit there by singing loudly and higher but failed miserably as it turned into a wailing noise 6/10

26 Austria: Last and lets hope not least, I've not been impressed this year at all.
This is bouncy and not the worst by a long shot.
Being sung last could do it a lot of favours and fire it towards top 10 at decent odds , 7/10

 

[slick]

Only Ireland caught my ear this year truth be known, not that means anything going off my pick in recent years
I've gone E/w on them @ 17's

 

[slick]

The Dutch entry has been axed due to some off field activities back stage.
Looking at the state of this year's entries I can't say I'm surprised.
I'm more surprised he's the only one lol.

 

[Beanie]

Loving your unique scoring system and on the spot deductions for poor clothing

Short on time, so a few notes on each of the main markets:

Last Place:

Spain favourite here and they will struggle to attract much support on either side of the board, but at the prices I like Austria @ 33/1 for last place. Going last isnt always a great running order slot, and while plenty will enjoy it, its not going to be many people's favourite and wont command much jury love. Worth a bet at the price.

Top 15:

Will be very tight here, but I think Latvia are worth a look at anything over 6/4. It's a jury oriented song, but qualified against the odds in the televote only semi final. A lot of eye-catching/showy songs this year, so I think the audience will appreciate 3 minutes of sanity and calm.

Top 10:

Have plenty on Portugal at very big odds, but not much value left now and they will still struggle to squeeze in.

Instead, I'll tip Georgia @ 2/1+ for the top 10. I think the usual assumption is that these type of songs put off juries but there is plenty of precedent for this style being rewarded when executed professionally (which this is). Slightly buried by heavy hitters Croatia and France in the running order is the main concern.

Top 4:

Croatia and Switzerland look like locks in the top 4 based on anticipated televote and jury hauls respectively. Israel, if the televote rumours are true, would make that 3. Then its one from Ukraine, France and Italy. Italy has little momentum right now but should do well with juries (as usual for an Italian entry), perhaps just let down on the televote in such a crowded field. Same story for France - had he smashed the jury vote last night then a monster jury score may have been enough, but vocal issues might see it come up short.

As a result, I'll plump for Ukraine here. The Ukrainian disapora is both large and motivated, there remains significant sympathetic sentiment for them in Europe, and the visuals provide a clear call to action for those groups - there's bombs raining down on her for christs sake! BOMBS!

Best bet here is to take some of the 28/1 ew on Ukraine, which will give near 6/1 on the Top 4 portion of the bet (and a free bet on an unlikely win). Just be sure to check the ew terms as some bookies now only paying out to 3 places.

Winner:

The producers clearly don't want an Israel victory, and I think they will have done just enough to get Croatia over the line. Reasonable chance that Israel goes big in the televote, but I feel like enough jurors will mark it extremely low to produce a poor to average jury score. Ukraine similarly kneecapped by the draw, but a large televote is not impossible given the extremely motivated diaspora.

Switzerland may well have won the jury vote last night, but enough doubts about their televote potential.


A full 1-25, for shits and giggles:

1. Croatia
2. Israel
3. Ukraine
4. Switzerland
5. Italy
6. France
7. Greece
8. Georgia
9. Armenia
10. Serbia
11. Portugal
12. Lithuania
13. Ireland
14. Sweden
15. Latvia
16. Germany
17. Finland
18. Slovenia
19. UK
20. Cyprus
21. Norway
22. Estonia
23. Spain
24. Austria
25. Luxembourg

 

[Jezza]

Evening lads, thanks for the thread and write ups Beanie and Slick. Definitely my favoiurite nights betting of the year. As usual gonna raise a glass to Komp and Mickey Paul as well as this night always reminds me of them.

 

[Beanie]

Absolutely Jez - they'll be up there with Wogan talking about how crap all the songs are

 

[Jezza]

Now unfortunately I must come clean that as usual my Eurovision bets suck. Despite the fact its harder to get money on them than it is to take points off Manchester City I somehow manage to and always get owned. So far I have.

Ukraine to win @ 8.5 - When I took this you could lay it on betfair for gigantic amounts starting at 6.6 all the way back up, yet of course despite thinking I was sharking they are now like 50/1
Croatia to win @ 3.0 - This actually appears to have been quite a good bet, so I'd like to personally congratulate Israel on winning.

Austria to make the top 10 @ 6.0 - I dont know why I bet this but I did it without listening to the song or knowning the running order. It's drifting on betfair. Beanies tipped it as an outsider for last place. I am fucked.

Germany to make the top 10 @ 6.0 - I maybe have a chance here? Fingers crossed.

Cyprus to make the top 10 @ 10.0 - Outright degenerate gambling trying to get my money back. Any danger.

These are all not very good I know. I'll have some more leading up to the start and in running but its v v difficult to get money on. Will just have to stick to the exchanges I guess.

 

[Beanie]

Love it Jez. Im heavy on Ukraine also but mainly for the top 4 element - gave up on the win side when the EBU shafted them, and even the top 4 prospect is starting to look precarious. Hoping for a hidden, mammoth televote.

My austria last place tip is a bit punty really. Bit of a marmite song in terms of the genre so it might fly or it might bomb - hopefully lands for one of us!

And i like germany. The staging is pretty terrible but its swimming in a bit of a pool of its own in terms of being a chart friendly, male lead pop song. Juries could really go for it.

 

[Beanie]

Also adding some bets opposing Norway (last place @ 30s, not to get top 15 @ just over evens.) Underwhelmed all week and will be drowned out even more in the finals.

 

[Jezza]

Also adding some bets opposing Norway (last place @ 30s, not to get top 15 @ just over evens.) Underwhelmed all week and will be drowned out even more in the finals.

Thanks for the tip Beanie, I've taken them for last place.

 

[slick]

Ireland sounds ropey as fuck, I want my money back