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FA Cup betting 2-4th December

slick

slick

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English FA Cup
02 Dec 19:30 UK Fleetwood v Yeovil 2.30 3.20 2.62
03 Dec 14:00 UK Stourbridge v Stevenage 6.00 3.75 1.44
03 Dec 15:00 UK Barnet v MK Dons 3.75 3.30 1.80
03 Dec 15:00 UK Bradford v Wimbledon 2.30 3.20 2.62
03 Dec 15:00 UK Brentford v Wrexham 1.50 3.60 5.50
03 Dec 15:00 UK Charlton v Carlisle 1.61 3.50 4.50
03 Dec 15:00 UK Chelmsford City v Macclesfield 3.00 3.20 2.10
03 Dec 15:00 UK Colchester v Swindon 2.10 3.20 3.00
03 Dec 15:00 UK Crawley v Redbridge 1.17 6.00 10.00
03 Dec 15:00 UK Dag & Red v Walsall 2.62 3.20 2.30
03 Dec 15:00 UK Gateshead v Tamworth 1.80 3.40 3.60
03 Dec 15:00 UK Leyton Orient v Gillingham 1.80 3.30 3.75
03 Dec 15:00 UK Luton v Cheltenham 2.40 3.25 2.50
03 Dec 15:00 UK Salisbury v Grimsby 2.87 3.25 2.15
03 Dec 15:00 UK Sheff Utd v Torquay 1.50 3.60 5.50
03 Dec 15:00 UK Sheff Wed v Aldershot 1.44 3.75 6.00
03 Dec 15:00 UK Shrewsbury v Rotherham 1.91 3.20 3.50
03 Dec 15:00 UK Southend v Oldham 2.10 3.20 3.00
04 Dec 12:30 UK AFC Totton v Bristol Rovers 5.00 3.50 1.57
04 Dec 17:00 UK Sutton Utd v Notts County 5.00 3.50 1.57

Odds William Hill
 
I've already taken Wednesday -1.5 with Bet 365 at 13/10 for a reasonably hefty (for me) five units. Stats-wise most of Wednesday's home league games would have hit this, as would three of our four aways against sides in the top half. I don't know much about Wednesday, but as a promotion chaser from L1 I'd expect there to be a difference in class. With no midweek game either before or after there's no obvious need to field a weakened side, either. I'd have this at nearer evens.

I had this bet when Aldershot played at Swindon last weekend, and went to the game where we lost 2-0. I'll ignore the fact that both Swindon's goals should have been disallowed (one offside; one a push) while we had a perfectly good one chalked off, because I'm neither biased nor bitter. :hissyfit and the result was rigtht based on balance of play.

Seriously, we set up with a defensive 4-2-3-1 which never looked a threat going forward as all season we've never really looked quality up front. Once Swindon got a goal (offside, but I'm not bitter :hissyfit) we were forced into a 4-4-2 which didn't make us look more likely to score; it just made us more open and a Swindon second looked pretty much inevitable. A Swindon fan I spoke to thought it a routine victory in which they never had to get out of second gear.

I assume the game at Sheffield will follow a similar pattern. I also assume Wednesday will be better than Swindon and so even harder to get anything out of.
 
Good Luck

Gateshead v Tamworth

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 [Bwin]
 
MK Dons team news is that they are likely to rest 'several' first teamers for the visit to Barnet, and have a very 'teenage' looking bench. Barnet aren't without their selection problems and I'd still reckon the Dons should have too much for them. As the Dons don't look like taking it too seriously I've jumped on the bandwagon and got a little of the once widespread 4/1 a handful of bookies are still offering, which looks to have some value.
 
Jumping on another bandwagon, I agree with the view all over the web that Cheltenham are overpriced for thier visit to Luton. Luton have a decent home record, but are outside the promotion places and it seems their manager is coming under pressure. I don't know much about Luton, but they miss their top scorer, and a couple of players are cup tied.

Cheltenham are injury free, but there seems to be some confusion (or club secrecy!) on their message board about whether their five loanees can play, but I'd expect some to make it, notably with Huddersfield out of the cup five-goal James Spencer.

Like a lot of other people I'm having trouble making Luton favourites against a side something like 25 places higher and wih a very good away record. I think this could easily be a draw, but I'm happy to take Bet365's 11/10 DNB on Cheltenham option.
 
Also going to have a small speculative punt on winger Mark Wright to score for Shrewsbury against Rotherham, assuming he starts. He's scored in the last two, and nets in about one in four overall. Only Plymouth have conceded more league goals on their travels than Rotherham, and I think the couple of bookies offering 4/1 are slightly generous - most are around 5/2.
 
Yet another that's already appeared on the web (I am coming up with these independently - honest. It's reassuring to know that others are thinking along the same lines) is Walsall (0) 7/8 with Bet 365. Both sides are struggling in their divisions, but Dagenham are going through a particularly poor run. Both sides also have loanees who haven't been given permission to play, or who are cup tied. I know less about Walsall, but Dagenham's loss of striker Montano looks a particularly big blow.
 
I looked at Walsall, nearly backed them. Cant put you off, but they really arent very good
 
The RFO's put me onto a bet, small stakes mind, of doubles & trebles draws in the cup. Barnet, Brentford, Dagenham, Orient, Luton, Southend, the mighty Stour & Totton.
Also taken (& yes I know some are double backed) Barnet, Wimbledon, Swindon, Macclesfield, Wrexham, trebles & up

Any winners & the lots on Manure :ohwell
 
There was some talk that Crawley would rest some players for their game against minnows Redbridge, but they've put out a very strong team. I'd been waiting for the teams to be announced, and have taken Sky's -1 at 4/9. Redbridge are Rymans North, I think, and mid table, so in terms of difference I think there there are more places between the two than there are between Manchester City and Southport.
 
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