Germany Bundesliga II, 02.12.2011 - 05.12.2011

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 02.12.2011: SC Paderborn 07 - St Pauli

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/paderborn-st-pauli-806345/#ah;2

St Pauli (+0)
Odds: 1.86 (IbcBet)
Stake: 5/10

Match between two times of the magic top five in which Paderborn will host against St Pauli. Still, I see that Paderborn overperforms extremely and it will be only a matter of time until they will suffer from a losing streak. Started as relegation canidate number one, they played a fantastic season so far with mainly unknown players and an unknown manager. But they recognisably showed a down trend during the past few weeks. Paderborn got only a 2:2 last week in Frankfurt where they were even close to lose it and keep in mind that Frankfurt is the most pathetic home team in Germany. The week before they got a lucky and even undeserved 2:1 at home against Karlsruhe. Karlsruhe are the poorest travellers of the league but they missed a penalty as well as many good goalscoring opportunities and Paderborn won through a last minute goal. One week earlier they collapsed 4:0 against top team Greuther Furth in the national cup. The week before they won 2:0 in Cottbus with 2 shots and 2 goals - nice statistic. I think you see where I drive at with writing this. They have a lot of bad luck and their results are better than their performances. Fair rank for them would be something between 8 and 10 I guess and Pauli is the team with clearly much more quality.

Also it is mentionable that finally Pauli's best striker Marius Ebbers returned after his injury. He is so vital for them because he is the only poacher in the whole squad, actually the only striker of St Pauli who is able to score 15 goals + in one season. A few defenders returned as well, hence the situation in the squad improved a lot. Pauli is my favourite team away from home this season due to a simple reason. Manager Schubert (who has formerly worked in Paderborn for several years by the way) is known for appreciating good tactical behaviour. Still I do not like their defence so much but it is okay at least. But most important is their perfect counter ability. No team in the league - not even Greuther Furth who are actually known as the best counter team in this league - is able to display such great counter attacking. Howsoever Pauli is my favourite away team in this season and one of the few exceptions of teams who do better away than at home.

So what will we see tonight? The suprise team of the league which clearly had a downtrend in their performances as well as clearly lower quality vs the perhaps even best travellers of the league with many vital players returning. Level ball is brilliant here. Paderborn needs 100% improvement to have a chance to get a victory. But I do not see this happening. Maybe they were able to beat the most pathetic team of the league (Karlsruhe) at home with tons of luck and a late goal but for sure Pauli is one class stronger. It will be extremely hard for Paderborn here, level ball on Pauli is brilliant because there is some draw danger but I actually see Pauli winning this due to clearly more quality and because they are such good travellers.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 1:1

+/- 0.00 u

Pauli with the equaliser in the last second of the game. Again after a free kick cross like their 2:1 in Rostock. But it was more than deserved all in all. Paderborn took the lead with the half time whistle although Pauli had the better chances before. In second half it was a bit like handball because Paderborn defended so deep. Pauli did not have many chances but Naki should have equalised in the 87th minute when he missed the empty goal. Then, the 1:1 with the last second of the game. Draw was their fair result here in the end of the day.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 03.12.2011: Greuther Furth - Hansa Rostock

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge...012/greuther-furth-hansa-rostock-806341/#ah;2

Greuther Furth (-1.25)
Odds: 1.88 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 5/10

I think that Rostock does not have a snowball's chance in hell today when they will travel to Furth. Rostock is the most pathetic side of the league which lately showed a very poor development. They have really become worse week after week. In the early stages of the season their defence was still okay and they were able to create goalscoring chances. But due to injuries and their lack of self confidence, they became worse with every week. They meanwhile have a non-existing defence which does tons of mistakes as well as an offensive which is clearly the worst one of the league. A suprising thing is that manager Vollmann has not been sacked after the pathetic 2:5 at home against Berlin. It seemed that the players played against Vollmann. However it is Vollmann's own fault as well. He suspended player Kevin Pannewitz due to disciplinary reasons although he should have actually known that Pannewitz is maybe their best player. Fans did not understand that either and when Pannewitz was suspended, they said that this was the biggest mistake of Vollmann. The next big problem is that their only offensive player with quality, Mohammed Lartey, will still miss this game with injury. He was the only player who was able to create some danger in front of the opposing goal earlier in this season but since he sustained his injury, the whole offensive is dead.

Nevertheless I must admit that I do not like Furth so much. I can not remember when they showed their last convincing performance over 90 minutes BUT in fact they are clearly the most clinical side of the league. Even in Dusseldorf on Monday where they lost the top clash 2:1, they used their first chance to score. But we can not talk about luck anymore because it is always the same with them at home. Good examples where their recent home matches against Frankfurt (4:0) and Aue (2:0). In both matches, Aue and Frankfurt had the first two chances but they did not use them due to a lack of callousness. Then, Furth always scored through their first chance in the game because they were so patient. Afterwards, they created several good opportunities because the opposing side will not defend so deep anymore. As it is a matter of common knowledge, Furth is the best counter team of the league together with Pauli. This means that it is actually impossible that they will win by 1 goal only. This is the reason why I always like -1.25 lines on Furth at home against shit teams a lot.

Another really positive point here is that Büskens announced to make a few changes. Likely that Pektürk will move in who is one of my favourite players to replace Sararer or Schröck. Both recently made a tired impression and I am sure that Pektürk would use his chance. Making 1-2 changes would be a very good decision. Next positive point are Furth's quick wingers who will easily take advantage of Rostock's slowness. Rostock has extremely tall and therefore slow players like Kostal, Holst, Peitz, etc in their defence who rather prefer to defend against teams which prefer crosses, long balls and so on. But for sure Furth will use their short passing play which should be quite succesful here.

To make a long story short, Furth almost always cover their -1.25 handicap at home. Also Rostock is in a horrible club situation (they are likely to have a ghost game soon due to hooligan problems), their manager will be sacked after a defeat today, their 2 best players are still out and their form is extremely bad. Hence I am sure that Furth will win this one clearly and likely keep their clean sheet against Rostock's joke offensive. I think that 3:0 or 4:0 are likely outcomes.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 3:0

+ 4.40 u

Match was as expected. Furth did not play brilliant but they were the clearly better team from minute 1 until minute 90. Very comfortable one, I think that Rostock had zero shots on target in the whole match, they patently are the most pathetic team of the league at the moment.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 04.12.2011: VfL Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/bochum-aue-806340/#ah;2

Erzgebirge Aue (+0.75)
Odds: 1.80 (Ibcbet)
Stake: 5/10

With one exception, Aue's away performances in this season have been really strong and even stronger than their home displays. The one exception was the 1:0 defeat in Paderborn when they were tired because they played in the national cup against a Bundesliga side 3 days earlier. Besides, they are an extremely tough nut to crack because their fast counter breaks work very well on the road. For instance Aue got a 2:1 in Dresden two weeks ago where they made 35 or 40 shots in the whole match which was a new all-time record. Before they lost 2:0 in Greuther Furth but it was an unlucky result for them since Furth had some referee luck and are anyway one of the best sides in this league. Before, they got an amazing 3:2 in St Pauli were they showed the most impressing display since 2 years (according to manager Schmitt). Not enough for you? One week earlier they got a 1:1 in Braunschweig against the team which just smashed Bochum 4:0 at home. Also there, Aue showed a fantastic display. Also they got a 1:1 in FSV Frankfurt where they hit the woodwork 4 or 5 times (also a new all-time record). With writing this, I just want to make you clear that they are an extremely tough nut to crack in away matches. They play with huge passion, always maximal effort and their wings with Hochscheidt, Kempe and Kocer are more than strong. Last week they indeed suffered from a last minute defeat at home against Duisburg but their display was okay and generally they do better away than at home in this season so far. Most impressing with Aue is their maximal effort and passion in each game, also they have an almost perfect ball winning ability due to their great attitude. Another mentionable thing is that best defender Adli Lachheb as well as vital backup Marcl Hensel will return after their suspensions!

And now they will travel to Bochum, the team which was humilated in Braunschweig on Sunday and which lost at home against the pathetic side Cottbus. Started as a promotion favourite, their season is already screwed and the new manager effect of Bergmann who came roughly 2 months ago has already disappeared as well. Their home crowd is extremely poor as well, today a new all-time low of less than 10.000 visitors is expected. Weather will not be really good either which is an advantage for Aue because Bochum is the better football team which hence needs better conditions. But what did Bochum show at home so far? Nothing! Two last second victories against pathetic FSV Frankfurt as well as against Duisburg who were in a horrible shape back then. Besides another lucky 1:0 at home against poor Aachen who missed a penalty in the last second of the game. And besides they lost everything! Bochum has two great individual players, the Asians Takashi Inui and Jong Tae-Se. But Tae-Se is out of form for a longer time and he is a very erratic player who will probably not like to play against Aue's defenders who have such a strong ball winning ability combined with bad weather conditions. Still Inui is one of the best players in this league I must admit, his technical ability is brilliant but he is also one of these players who are too inconstant.

To sum up, a 0.75 line is no way justified in my eyes. Aue are very strong travellers in this season and they did not lose against several top teams like Braunschweig and St Pauli. Also their last away display in Dresden was very impressing stuff whereas Bochum's season is screwed and after 2 consecutive pathetic displays and in front of a little home crowd, motivation will be bad as well. Aue is full-strength and in a good shape, hence I expect a very balanced match.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 6:0

- 5.00 u

Corners: 5 - 7
Shots: 15 - 15
Ball possession: 48% - 52%
Score: 6 -0

Sometimes everything is against you on one day. Today it was such a today. Bochum scored early through an own goal, then Aue had two excellet chances to equalise but Bochum converted a counter attack as well as they smashed a free kick from crazy distance into the goal. Immediately after the restart, Bochum smashed another crazy distance shot into the goal. Then Aue gave up and still conceded 2 more goals.

Still I have to live with it .. I had 8 won picks in a row in 2. Bundesliga and my last losing pick was more than 2 weeks ago. Season still fantastic with 20% yield, hence I do not worry at all although this was a kick in the teeth today.

Tommorow game looks interesting, I will post my idea tommorow in the evening.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 05.12.2011: MSV Duisburg - Fortuna Dusseldorf

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/duisburg-dusseldorf-806342/#ah;2

Fortuna Dusseldorf (-0.25)
Odds: 1.84 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 7/10

Derby time in Duisburg when the local rivals Duisburg and Dusseldorf will meet each other. I keep on betting against Dusseldorf which is clearly my most profitable team in this season. It is difficult to find adjectives to descripe Dusseldorf's great situation. I will just keep it short: They are on the first rank in the table, they are unbeaten since March 2011 (their last defeat was a 1:0 in Duisburg, though) and in all games since March, they were nowhere near being defeated. To me, they will promote at 100% and the main reason is their fantastic mindset, attitude and team spirit. For example Frankfurt has better individual players but they often act arrogant, especially away from home against rather weak sides and they like to be lazy. But Dusseldorf are overachievers. For example their home record is very impressing as well. Since more than a half year, they won every single home match. Every week I think that they could maybe play a bit weaker or become arrogant but every week I am wrong. More or less they always play perfect within their possibilities. The reason for this perfect attitude are players like Sascha Rösler, Lumpi Lambertz, Oliver Fink, etc - all these players are utterly fighters who always play well. Nevertheless I am every week a bit scared to keep on betting against them because they have to lose a game sooner or later. But why especially tonight? Why in Duisburg where roughly 10.000 loud supporters from Dusseldorf will attend? Why they should suddenly became arrogant prior to such a game? For the abovementioned players, flood light, derby atmosphere and loud support is perfect because they love to fight. Besides, no absences and full-strength. Last week they won 2:1 against Furth in an impressing way and they proved again how strong they are.

Duisburg recently achieved two consecutive victories but both ones were more or less lucky. The 3:0 against Braunschweig seems to be a really impressing one at first view but circumstances were lucky there. The 2:1 in Aue was a good away display but still a bit lucky because they only won due to a horrible goalkeeper mistake of Aue in the last second of the match. Another negative thing could be their long ball strategy. They love to use long balls and crosses which makes of course sense due to their striker Jula who is very good in the air. But this will likely not work so well because Dusseldorf has clearly the best central defence of the league with Jens Langeneke and my all-time favourite players Assani Lukimya who are both tall and brilliant in the air. Especially Lukimya has a brilliant ball winning ability and he will do well against Duisburg's key player Jula for sure. Furthermore Duisburg has some problems on the back four wings with Dzemal Beberovic and above all Benjamin Kern. Left back Kern is good in the offensive but on the other side he is not the best defender at all and he will have huge problems against Dusseldorf's extremely quick right winger Maxi Beister who is the best player of the league according to several experts. Duisburg is full-strength as well and has no absences.

All in all, Fortuna can not lose this. If Duisburg will do really well, if they have some luck on their side and if Dusseldorf will not have their best day, then Duisburg could achieve a draw. Then we would have a half loss. But actually Fortuna should be able to win this derby and also we should take into consideration that home factor will not be the biggest one because there will be as many Dusseldorf supporters as Duisburg fans. This line and these odds are a big gift although they already dropped some on early market but still I am glad to take this line because a full loss is unrealistic here.

 

[Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 0:2

+ 6.37 u

Not a lot to say but typical Dusseldorf. Brilliant performance, penalty goal as always, wonder goal of Rösler as usual and his 6th yellow card for him in this season because of complaining at the referee. Dusseldorf is a money machine in this season and due to their perfect attitude I can even imagine that they will finish this season as being unbeaten ...