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Germany Bundesliga II, 18.11.2011 - 21.11.2011

  • Thread starter Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL
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Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL

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Hi,

I am DSQUAREDLOL from TheDailyPunt forum.

Original odds taken @2.02 this morning .. still good price.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 18.11.2011: Ingolstadt 04 - 1860 Munich

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/ingolstadt-munich-1860-806327/

Ingolstadt 04 (+0)
Odds: 1.99 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10

Ingolstadt ranks on the 18th position in the table and still these odds are clearly value odds which we will not miss out. Ingolstadt started into this season as a team which had the aim to achieve at least a top 10 position. But their start into this season was as poor as in the previous one and due to injury worries and bad defence behaviour, they lost a lot in the beginning of the season. Prior to the international games break, they now finally sacked manager Möhlmann which was the right decision. The team recently made an absolutely spiritless impression, everybody saw that they played against Möhlmann. The players did not even celebrate goals anymore, they patently acted in a spiritless way. New manager is Oral (yes, that's his name) who is a young and ambitious manager who already had great success with FSV Frankfurt where he climbed up from 6th to 2nd division. Good decision to sign him and he had a lot of time to prepare the team for this match as well as he had time to improve the team atmosphere. Generally, Ingolstadt is a team which has a really good technical ability. With regard to this, it is a shame that they rank in the bottom of the table. Players like Akaechi, Buddle, Buchner, etc have fine technical abilities and they already proved that a few times in this season. For instance at home against Dresden where they showed great football because the played against a team which is weak in defending. These kind of opponents are perfect for them. But in away games, Ingolstadt played extremely bad. Their behaviour in the defence is poor and I am glad that Pisot will replace Biliskov today (Pisot is less error-prone and better) and I hope that their tactical behaviour will improve today with their new manager. Howsoever, they are a really good football team with players who have very good technical abilities. This season is somehow a deja-vu situation for them. Last season they started poorly as well, then they sacked former manager Wiesinger and with Möhlmann, they achieved great results and played in a very good way.

1860 is quite similar to Ingolstadt. Both clubs are rich - 1860 has a Jordanian investor and Ingolstadt has Audi - both teams have poor defences, both cities are located in Bavaria and both teams are pathetic and spiritless travellers. 1860 lately had a disastrous development. They won 3:0 in Duisburg but it was a very strange match and not really a fair result at all. But besides, they do extremely bad. Midfielder Halfar is injured and last season he was maybe the best 2. Bundesliga player which is a big problem and their whole defence is a big mess. Only a matter of time until manager Maurer will be sacked. Also they have big trouble in the club - there are some differences between the investor and the president. Howsoever, unexceptional all performances of 1860 during the past few weeks are very bad. Especially on the road, they usually play in a pathetic way. Non existing defence, bad counter attacking and a spiritless impression at all. Last matchday they showed a horrible home display against Bochum and I am sure that manager Maurer will still be sacked in 2011.

All in all, I think that two teams with roughly similar potential meet each other. Nevertheless Ingolstadt should be slightly favourites here. They have a new manager who had a lot of time to prepare them, pressure to get good results again (the president says that they want to play Bundesliga in 2015), high potential in the offensive and I know that they can do much better than they recently did. It is only a matter of attitude and I think that this will change because of the new manager. Also they are a team which likes to play at home. Not because of their fans - they have no fans - no, because they play against a team which rather uses a defensive-minded approach. This means that their defence is not under so much pressure which is good for them and they can use their ability to make the running to create goalscoring opportunities. 1860 is spiritless and plays in a poor way, no chance for them to take 3 points here to be honest. If Ingolstadt will show the right attitude, they should clearly win this. If they will not change their attitude, then we will see a 50/50 match. However, Ingolstadt will be slightly favourities tonight.
 
Huge drop since I took 2.12 odds in real, still worths taking but maybe you should consider to decrease stake a bit. Odds won't come back, it is even likely that they will keep on dropping since it is a matter of common knowledge that the market loves Braunschweig.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 18.11.2011: MSV Duisburg - Eintracht Braunschweig

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/duisburg-braunschweig-806324/#ah;2

Eintracht Braunschweig (+0)
Odds: 2.01 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10

Prior to this season, the line here would probably be -0.75 on Duisburg and now it is a level ball but still I think that Braunschweig will be favourites here. Duisburg is a big name, they made huge investment in the summer but in fact, they only signed crap players. Moreover their players have several different nationalities and communication as well as team spirit seems to be a big problem. Some weeks ago they sacked manager Sasic and Reck became their new manager. But they showed zero improvement so far. Their first match was a 0:3 home defeat against the pathetic travellers from Munich, the second one was a 2:2 against relegation battler Aachen. Generally I made the observation that they are rather weaker than better in their own stadium. Away from home they are bad either but they create more opportunities because it seems that they prefer to counter attack. They first of all do not have anymore home advantage because the fans feel ashamed for their spiritless team and also they are not good in making the running. They have low self confidence and playmaker Gjasula will be out for this match. Shao is likely to replace him which is a big weakening at all because Shao's form is horrible. And in fact, this will be their 15th game in this season and none of the previous 14 ones was good. They got two undeserved victories at home against the poorest travellers of the league, Ingolstadt and Dresden. Both victories were advantaged by the referee. Especially the result against Ingolstadt was a shame because fair score there was 1:3 or something like that. So in fact you see that Duisburg is a relegation battler in this season and their disadvantage is that they are arrogant and that they do not like to fight. They make an unpassionate impression and they did not improve with their new manager.

Braunschweig came from 3. Bundesliga but they are a on 6th rank and this is completely deserved. Sometimes they have even been unlucky with referee decisions etc (at home against Union and Dresden) but mainly they are a team which did not show a single bad display so far. I like them a lot on the road. They play with a very strong defence and hardly allow anything and then they try to use one of their few chances to score. In deep contrast to Duisburg, they are clinical in front of the goal which is a major advantage. They lost 3 of the last 4 games but all 3 defeats were unlucky and not really deserved. The victory was away against top team Furth which was a terrific performance. A problem could be that regular defender Henn will be out and Dogan will repalce him. Do not take me wrong, Dogan was their best defender last season, but I am a bit afraid because he has been out with injury for a long time. Also he has never played together with Correira in the central defence so far but Correira as well as Dogan are both great defenders and hence I hope that it will work quite well.

You see there is one huge difference: Duisburg had 14 games in this season and 14 games were bad. No single good performance so far, only two undeserved victories against poor sides. Braunschweig had 14 games so far and all 14 games were at least okay, often even very good. The line here still bases on the fact that Duisburg is a big name in German football whereas Braunschweig is a promoted team but I do not care because Braunschweig is the clearly better team so far. The only negative thing here is the absence of Henn and the fact that Braunschweig will be satisfied with a draw. Braunschweig's manager Lieberknech stated: "Duisburg must win, we want to win". But actually they should be able to take all 3 points here because they are clearly better. Draw is covered with the level ball, hence I think that this is a very good choice. Duisburg needs to show their first good performance in this season but why just today?
 
Hi Benny/Dsquaredlol, good to see you on here, and good luck with your picks :thumb
 
Great to see you too Dsquared, suppose we should call you Benny now lol, if you want me to change your username in time just give me a shout.
 
Welcome mate. I was hoping you'd get over here at some stage.clap
 
Extremely bad timing with returning to the forum, guys. Unlucky start after good first weekend in November.

FT 0:1

- 4 u

Two pathetic sides played against each other here. 1860 used their first shot in the match to score. Afterwards, they used a very defensive minded approach. Ingolstadt then struggled with creating opportunities. They had a couple of chances then but did not score.

__

FT 3:0

- 4 u

Joke game: Duisburg's 1:0 was the funniest goal of the season. After 10 minutes, a Braunschweig defender cleared the ball, he hit the face of a Duisburg striker and the ball rolled into the goal. Then, vital midfield player Vrancic of Braunschweig sustained a injury and was therefore substituted very early. Then, Duisburg used their second "chance" to make the 2:0 when Braunschweig's goalkeeper did a horrible mistake. In the second half, Braunschweig missed two 1vs1 situations and player Kessel was red-carded. A few minutes before the final whistle another goalkeeper mistake of Braunschweig's gk and the 3:0. Odds dropped a lot which proves that we took a value choice but value bets can't win with so many unlucky events in one single match.
 
Good to see you here Benny, better luck next time i'm sure :thumb
 
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 19.11.2011: Hansa Rostock - St. Pauli

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/german ... 6328/#ah;2

St. Pauli (-0.25)
Odds: 2.00 (SBOBET)
Stake: 7/10

This is one of the biggest value bets of the whole season so far and a home victory here should really be almost impossible. Draw is worst case. First of all, Rostock against Sankt Pauli is the most dangerous match in Germany and probably one of the most dangerous games in the world. I think that home advantage should generally be not overestimated here because of the fact that many guest fans will support their team and the Rostock stadium is not really a home ground with hot atmosphere. Howsoever, Rostock is the poorest team of the league in my opinion together with FSV Frankfurt. Rostock's start into this season was ok - they were often unlucky and suffered from a bad conversion of chances - but meanwhile play on a very low level. There are several rumours that there are some internal problems between manager Vollmann and the team. Also, one of their best players, Kevin Pannewitz, has been banned to the U23 which is a big blow for them. Also best striker Lartery is likely to miss this match. Their last home display at home against weak Cottbus was a big pathetic display. They played at home against a team which has a big crisis and against one of the worst back fours of the league. Still, they were unable to create any goalscoring opportunity. Cottbus had several chances and Rostock could only achieve an undeserved equaliser through a corner in the stoppage time but fair score there was 0:3 or something like that. Last matchday, they got a lucky 0:0 in Frankfurt where they actually had zero chances again. Hardly any goalchance for them during the past few games and their poor offensive will be their biggest problem today. Pauli's weak point is their defence but Rostock will not be able to exploit that. They are unable to apply pressure, unable to take advantage of a weak defence. Hence I think that this fact will be a huge problem for them.

Pauli's best player Kruse is still a little doubt prior to this match but they have several good alternatives to replace him if he will really be out. But he should actually be ready to make the lineup according to all sources. Sankt Pauli's offensive is roughly one class stronger than Rostock's one and it is very positive for them that they do not have to be afraid of Rostock's offensive. Pauli's defence is not very good at all but they are not too bad to keep their sheet clean against Rostock. Motivation will be extremely high here as well, so there is no chance that they will be happy with a draw or something like that. A victory against big rival Rostock would be very important for the fans and the club in general. Generally Pauli are better away than at home because they are not very good in making the running and they prefer if they have some space to counter attack, etc - so this is another advantage for them. Rostock will be in a tight spot, they may not defend very deep at home against rival Pauli. They will attack, probably not create many good chances and they will offer space to Pauli. All in all the weakest team of the league meets one of the best away teams in a derby match. -0.25 at such a huge price is a divinely here. Draw is worst case if Rostock will use their first chance to score, get an early lead or something like that. Then we are half covered. But away victory is very likely here at all.
 
FT 1:3

+ 7.00 u

Deserved victory for Pauli who were simply the better team but their big advantage was that Rostock's player Weilandt was red-carded early due to a violent conduct. Then Pauli took the deserved 1:0 lead but Rostock equalised because of another horrible mistake of Pauli goalkeeper Tschauner. But Saglik then took the lead again in the 80th minutes through a nice header ... all in all this was deserved for Pauli.
 
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 20.11.2011: Greuther Furth - FSV Frankfurt

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge...012/greuther-furth-fsv-frankfurt-806323/#ah;2

Greuther Furth (-1.25)
Odds: 2.06 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 5/10

Furth is the team which I follow most closely and I am sure that they will will win today again after two consecutive matches with out a victory. In the first weeks of the season, Furth was extremely strong at home and in each match they created several great goalscoring opportunities. Due to their good counter ability, they almost always covered the handicap as well. But since matchday number 9 they showed a rather bad development. Still they got some victories and did not play bad at all but it was more difficult for them to create opportunities. The reason is simple: their playmaker and the brain of the team, Stephan Fürstner, sustained an injury. Milorad Pekovic was replacing him during the previous months but Pekovic has a bad technical ability and is only a typical defensive minded midfield player who is only good in fighting. Edgar Prib, the other central midfielder of the team, is also very defensive-minded and both - Pekovic and Prib - do not have the best passing play at all. Hence the whole building up of Furth did not work so well anymore. And Furth does dependt a lot on their short passing play since they are the team of the league which is most "lazy" on the pitch (they run the lowest distance on the pitch of all teams). A good example was their home defeat against Braunschweig 3 weeks ago where they were not able to create chances against a defensive minded side because of the fact that their passing play did not work well at all. But now Fürstner will be back and the manager confirmed that he is very fit. The international break was good for him to recover. He is the brain of the team how I already mentioned above and with him, the whole system will work better again. He as the playmaker will provide the highly dangerous strikers Nöthe and Occean with passes, also he will bring the quick wings, Sercan Sararer and Stephan Schröck, into action.

About Frankfurt there is not really much to say. To me, they are the worst team of the league. They have big internal problems with their manager. Manager Boysen already sacked his captain Schlicke due to a conflict between them and players do not like his manner how he treats his players. He often does criticise his team in interviews after games and make jokes about them when they showed another bad performance. Howsoever, the whole situation there is a bottomless pit and sooner or later he will be sacked for sure. Their recent results as well as their performances were bad, too, and there is no reason why they should improve today. Also their back four doesnt look good since Boysen sacked captain Schlicke who was their vital defender before. Heitmeier and Gledson in the central defence are slow and error-prone.

I really see no chance for Frankfurt to get something from Furth. Bad self-confidence, internal problems, low team quality against a team which will finally be full-strength again. Fürstner is vital for them and you will see that their whole short passing play will work better again. Hence, they should create enough chances to cover the handicap and another good point here is that they have a good conversion of chances which is always a requirement for me when betting on such a massive handicap.
 
FT 4:0

+ 4.50 u

Furth struggled in the beginning of the match but where clinical when using the first chance to score. But in fact, Furth is the team with the best conversion of chances in this league. Second half was humilation, FSV played in a spiritless way.
 
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