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Germany Bundesliga II, 25.11.2011 - 28.11.2011

  • Thread starter Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL
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Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 25.11.2011: FSV Frankfurt - SC Paderborn 07

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/fsv-frankfurt-paderborn-806335/#ah;2

SC Paderborn 07 (+0)
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.73 (SBOBET)

Well, I am actually not someone who likes to reason his picks with statistics but to make you clear why I took the away team here, just a few statistics. Frankfurt's last home victory was in April 2011 and it was an extremely undeserved 2:1 against 1860. Back then I had a large bet against them and it was one of my most annoying lost bets ever. Paderborn started as a relegation canidate as well as Frankfurt but Paderborn is the most positive suprise of the season. Unbeaten since August, they win almost all their games (7of the last 8) due to their fantastic defence. They are the most clinical side of the league. They do not allow any goal chance in away games and they almost use every goal chance to score. This is patently clinical and convincing. Also, self-confidence and team atmosphere could not be better. The whole league speaks about the suprise team of the season and the big success story with the young manager Roger Schmidt who became successors of former club legend Andre Schubert who is now St Pauli manager. Today their most important midfielder besides Enis Alushi - Markus Krösche - returns to the starting eleven which will have an extremely positive impact on the team at all. Left back Bertels will be out but replacing him will not be a big deal at all because there are several equal options on this position. Paderborn are generally a team which I prefer more away than at home. The reason is simple, quite similiar to Greuther Furth, they have a fantastic defence and their big strength is breaking fast whereas making the running at home is not really their strength. They recently had some problems to create goalscoring chances against deep defending sides at home like for instance against Aue and Karlsruhe. Still, they won both matches because they proved again how clinical they are.

Frankfurt is definitely the strangest team of the league. I remember roughly one year ago, they were in the same position like Paderborn now. They were the biggest suprise team of the league but nobody understands what happened in 2011. Away from home, they still performed well although they do not reward themselves there but it seems that they like to sit back and show counter football. But in the "Bornheimer Hang", their own stadium, they play uncertrain and anxious and the fact that they only play in front of very few spectators can not be the reason for that. In home matches, they create roughly 1-2 chance in each match. I remember pathetic displays like the 1:1 at home vs Braunschweig in September, the 0:1 against Cottbus or just two matchdays ago the 0:0 against pathetic Rostock. Against Cottbus, they accomplished a feat with having 0 mentionable chances in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Against Braunschweig, they at least had two chances and they converted one of it which is quite good for them actually. Against Rostock, they had one big chance in the first half but then they were lucky not to lose because they decided to stop playing in the second half. Generally this is a problem. Whereas Paderborn are really good in the second half and a team which is known for scoring late goals, Frankfurt usually stops playing in the second half. For today they will also be without their vital defender Gledson who was red-carded in Furth last week. Heitmeier is likely to replace him and Heitmeier in combination with Schlicke seems to be one of the worst central defences of the league. Also, especially Schlicke is extremely slow which could be dangerous against Paderborn's fast breaks. Howsoever, something in the team is wrong for sure. It seems that the team plays against manager Boysen who has big conflicts with the team. I am not going to repeat myself with it since I already wrote it in my previous last weekend but various sources confirm that Boysen has big problems with his players, especially with former captain Schlicke who has been sacked as a captain because he complained too much.

Two different worlds meet each other here. Frankfurt has zero home advantage, horrible atmosphere, they play bad and are without their best player Gledson whereas Paderborn is on cloud nine and does even win close matches. So for which reason Paderborn is not clearer favourite here? Frankfurt did not show a convincing home display since their last victory in April whereas Paderborn won 7 of their last 8 games and is unbeaten since August. So actually this seems to be too good to miss out. Nevertheless Frankfurt is a team with good technical potential and Paderborn would actually be halfway satisfied with a draw as well but in this situation, anything than an away victory would be a huge suprise. To be honest, I see Frankfurt creating zero chances here because the worst offensive meets the best defence of the league. We can only lose this pick if Frankfurt will score through one of their good set pieces of Zafer Yelen but if this will not happen, then I can not see Frankfurt scoring one single goal. Paderborn will have no big away disadvantage because Frankfurt has zero home support and they have a perfect shape, so I see them scoring a goal sooner or later. Well, every positive run will end sooner or later but I do not see Paderborn's winning streak ending against the most pathetic team of the league.
 
FT 2:2

+/- 0.00

First half was really good and I was sure that Paderborn would win this after the early lead. But in the second half, they collapsed and played extremely poor. Deserved draw in the end of the day. At least my gut feeling was right that draw danger was huge here, so I am glad that I went with the level ball and not the -0.25.
 
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 26.11.2011: TSV 1860 Munchen - Eintracht Frankfurt

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge.../munich-1860-eintracht-frankfurt-806334/#ah;2

TSV 1860 Munchen (+0.5)
Odds: 1.90 (SBOBET)
Stake: 5/10

Odds on home side are really good here and this is clearly a value pick. The guests from Frankfurt have recently been the by far luckiest team of the league. For sure they have the highest quality of the league but they play in a very arrogant way at all. For instance their two recent away displays .. they got a lucky 1:1 against bottom club Ingolstadt with the equaliser in the 96th minute and the other time they won 2:1 in Aue when Aue had the much better goalscoring chances but when Frankfurt scored late through a lucky flipper goal. Last weekend it was actually the same when they won 4:3 at home through a last minute goal against 17th ranked team Aachen. You see that their results are more than decent but the way how they do perform is not really convincing at all. Especially their defence is simply nothing special. Gordon Schildenfeld is a weak central defender and another problem is the left back position with Constant Djakpa who is likely to be dropped today of manager Armin Veh. Here I believe that 1860 will have some good chances. Their offensive is really strong at all with the two great strikers Benny Lauth and Kevin Volland which is one of the best striker duos in the league. The wings ore more than decent as well with strong Stefan Aigner as well as with Djordje Rakic who recently found back his old good form. Only 1860's defence is often a big mess but it is vital that best defender Necat Aygün returned from an injury and he will improve the whole back four a lot. A good point here is also that Frankfurt's best striker Mo Idrissou will be out because of injury.

And generally 1860 is a team with great potential but their problem is that they rarely use it. It has always been the same during the previous seasons. They have a good squad, people say that they can potentially achieve promotion but they give away too many points (away from home) against weak sides. Otherwise, they often show how strong they are in top clashes against the strongest teams of the league. I remember last season when the squad was actually almost exactly the same one. They won at home as well as away from home against 1st ranked team Hertha Berlin. In both games they showed their great potential and even their defence did a good job. And I am sure that they will achieve something similar today as well.

Most important to me here is really that Frankfurt could recently not convince, especially away from home. They are clearly the luckiest team of the league and even manager Armin Veh mentioned that he is pissed off because of the arrogant way of performing of his team. Another good point is that the best player of the league, the Cameroonian international striker Mo Idrissou, will be likely to be not considered due to injury. And very important point here is also that Frankfurt will be satisfied with a draw. Their unbeaten-record would endure and they would extend their lead in the table. Frankfurt in their current shape is simply not convincing enough to be -0.5 favourite away against a team with so much potential. Draw is a likely outcome here since both teams would be happy with a draw.
 
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 27.11.2011: Energie Cottbus - Ingolstadt 04

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge...-2012/energie-cottbus-ingolstadt-806332/#ah;2

Ingolstadt 04 (+0.75)
Odds: 1.84 (Ladbrokes), 1.74 (Sbobet)
Stake: 4/10

Ingolstadt lost 8 of their 8 away games so far and still I am sure that they will get something from Cottbus today. But why? Well, first of all Ingolstadt is a team with enough quality to achieve a position in the midfield of the table. They are a very rich club and club owners want to see them playing Bundesliga sooner or later, hence they made some really good signings. But the whole team does not play like a unit, rather like a group of individual players. Due to this, they sacked their manager two weeks ago and Tomas Oral took over. His first match was a 0:1 defeat against 1860 but 1860 did quite a well job in the defence and at least Ingolstadt's attitude improved. Their problem away from home so far was that they always conceded 3 or 4 goals because of their bad defence. But Oral improved their defence behaviour and today they will meet one of the poorest offensives of the league.

Cottbus' important striker Dimitar Rangelov is very likely to return but he needs balls from the wings and the offensive midfield in general to do well. Also midfielder Leo Bittencourt returns from injury but in my opinion he is a clearly overrated player. He is still extremely young and for sure a big talent but not steady enough. Once more Cottbus' problem will be the three players behind striker Rangelov: Daniel Adlung, Alex Ludwig and Jules Reimerink. All these players are not effective enough and they are rather good for counters. Howsoever no players who can create goalscoring chances. Bad news for Cottbus that two vital players - superior defender Uwe Hünemeier and vital midfielder Ivica Banovic - will miss this game because of injury. Hünemeier still showed a great performance in the Monday night clash against Bochum and now he has to be replaced. Generally Cottbus is a team which struggles in the defence, hence it is not helpful for them if their defence boss is out. Banovic's absence is very bad as well since he is in fact their most experience player and vital in the defensive midfield. People expect offensive minded Bittencourt to replace him on the defensive midfield position which would be a massive weak point because Bittencourt's ball winning ability is much worse. The missing of Banovic will offer Ingolstadt much more space in the offensive.

To make a long story short, I see two teams with roughly same quality. With regard to the technical ability, Ingolstadt is even slightly superior. Ingolstadt showed a better attitutde in their first home match with Oral and I am sure that they will reward themselves this time. Although Ingolstadt's away record is pretty poor, they are not a team which depends on their home crowd because they have no fans. But if their high quality players like Buddle, Caiuby, etc really want to win (and how I already mentioned, their mentality was good against 1860), then they should win this or at least not lose this because they are definitely not worse than Cottbus. Two teams at same level here and Ingolstadt recently had a positive development whereas Cottbus is a low quality team with two vital players who are likely to miss out this match. Hence 0.75 line is far too much.
 
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 27.11.2011: Eintracht Braunschweig - VfL Bochum

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/braunschweig-bochum-806337/#ah;2

Eintracht Braunschweig (-0.25)
Odds: 1.94 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 4/10

The market overreacts after a recent bad streak of Braunschweig. Two weeks ago they had a -0.75 line at home against Union Berlin who are slightly stronger than Bochum and they showed a good display but were unlucky in a few situations. Last week they lost 3:0 in Duisburg but circumstances were unlucky there as well when the opponents took the early lead through a lucky flipper goal. Howsoever, it does not make any sense that they are now -0.25 favourite considering how well they did at home so far although recent results were not good at all. Clearly overreacting of the market and how I already mentioned, Union and Bochum are more or less at the same level but Union had a good form. So a difference of 2 lines between the Union-game and today makes no sense. Prior to the Union-game where they lost unluckily, they lost 0:2 at home against weak Dresden which seems to be quite poor on first view. But in this game they dominated completely but they were clearly disadvantaged by the referee and they missed tons of chances whereas Dresden used every chance to score. So you see that Braunschweig has a bad streak but still they play a superb season as a promoted team and they have recently been patently unlucky. Deniz Dogan, who was actually their best defender last season, is going to replace Matthias Henn again due to his cruciate rupture. Last week Dogan had an unlucky comeback but I know about his qualities, hence I do not worry about that. Benjamin KSteffen essel is going to be replaced by Bohl which is not a big weakening either. Damir Vrancic, who is the brain of the team, will miss this match out as well and this is the only position where I think that this is a clear weakening. However the missing of Vrancic does not justify a -0.25 considering that we still had -0.75 against Union Berlin in the last home match.

Bochum comes from a 0:1 home defeat against poor Cottbus. It was a pathetic display on Monday and a big setback for the team which actually improved since Bergmann is manager there. Mainly I think that they have big problems in the back four. Their wing defenders Björn Kopplin and Matthias Ostrzolek are weak players and both simply weak points in the team. Braunschweig plays a lot through the wings due to their superb wings Mirko Boland and Dennis Kruppke and here I see a lot of potential for the home side. Although the central defence is poor. Especially the young player Jonas Acquistapace is not the ideal solution on this position and he only plays because summer signing Lukas Sinkiewicz was disappointing so far. The offensive has potential but otherwise they were unable to create many goal chances against Cottbus' very weak defence on Monday. Jong Tae-Se is a great player for sure but he makes 1 good game out of 10 games and this is not enough. Same is true of midfield genius Takashi Inui who is not steady enough as well. Giovanni Federico however is a lethargic and lazy player on the pitch and I do not understand for which reason he may still start in the lineup. Bochum recently got a nice 3:1 away against 1860 but 1860 was pathetic once more and Bochum benefitted from a missed penalty as well as two very early goals.

Bochum is not steady enough and patently not convincing enough to get a +0.25 line in Braunschweig. Several strong teams like Berlin were +0.75 underdogs there and even the best team of the league (Eintracht Frankfurt) got a +0.25 line in Braunschweig. And now Bochum who play such a disappointing season and who patently not convince should have a chance to win here? Braunschweig plays better than their recent results have been, hence no reason for overreacting at all and thus we get clearly value odds on the home side this time.
 
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 28.11.2011: Fortuna Dusseldorf - Greuther Furth

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ge...1-2012/dusseldorf-greuther-furth-806333/#ah;2

Fortuna Dusseldorf (-0.25)
Odds: 2.02 (Sbobet)
Stake: 7/10

Probably no big suprise for you that I go on Dusseldorf here and I think that everyone who just follows this league a little bit sees that odds are wrong. I would even have taken it when -0.25 was @1.80, now odds are patently wrong here because the market loves Furth for some reason. As a fan I would love to see Furth winning this one but I follow this team very closely and I must admit that their recent development was very bad. I really do not know when they showed their last really convincing match. Last week they clearly won 4:0 at home vs. pathetic Frankfurt but Furth's first half was shocking poor and they were lucky to use their first shot to score whereas Frankfurt missed two great chances before. But it is a matter of common knowledge that Furth fails in top clashes. This season they were already close to lose in St Pauli when they still equalised in the last second of the match. Also they lost at home 1:3 vs. Braunschweig when they played pathetic. Furth really convinced me until September. Then there was an international games break and since then their development has been poorly. They still got some good results but never they really convinced anymore. Their short passing play which was formerly their biggest strength does not work so well anymore, the team makes an unfocussed impression and the whole building up is poor. Too many long and high balls without any aim, bad coordination between the players and hence several bad passes. The problem is that they dependt on their short passing play. Furth is the team of the league which runs the lowest distance on the pitch, therefore they need a good pass completion rate to do well. The problem is that vital playmaker Fürstner has been out since this international games break which I mentioned above. He returned last week but did not make a very good impression to be honest. Sararer is a bit out of form as well and the strong strikers Nöthe and Occean do dependt on the midfield. Also, I observed that their central defence as well as their goalkeeper became much more error prone. Kleine and Mavraj in the central defence are solid but in every game, they do some big mistakes. The same is true of goalkeeper Grün who does one big mistake in almost every game. And how I already mentioned - Furth usually fails in top clashes which is no big suprise due to the fact that poor teams do not punish their negligences, defence mistakes and bad passes. But for example against Braunschweig, they played as bad as against Frankfurt last week in the first half but Braunschweig is a strong side and they punished them. I remember last season when Furth almost used the same players, they always failed against the top teams as well and they were unavailable to create goal chances. Tonight they will again try to break fast but Dusseldorf's central defence is extremely strong with Langeneke and Lukymia. They have such a good ball winning ability and they never allow counter attacks in their own stadium because they are experienced with that. This Furth counter strategy is nice but it only works against rather bad teams like Cottbus f.e. who want to make the running at home and who do individual mistakes in the defence.

According to home statistics, Dusseldorf is probably the best home team in Europe. This season they won every game at home so far and during the previous two seasons it was almost the same as well. Last home defeat was more than one year ago as far as I do remember. But they always do great at home, there is nothing special to say. Also they have more experienced players than Furth and they made the much better impression in top clashes so far. They for instance won deservedly away to St Pauli and dominated Eintracht Frankfurt earlier in this season. Also they are still unbeaten in this season and I doubt that Furth can change this today. The only big problem is the absence of leader Rösler who will be out due to his 5th yellow card. There are several options to replace him and nobody is as strong as he is but still this does not justify such a massive price on the hosts. Motivation in this top clash under flood light and in front of roughly 40.000 fans will be massive as well.

I love the -0.25 here because Dusseldorf can not lose this. If Furth will improve a lot and show their face of the early stages of the season, then they might be able to get a 0:0 or 1:1. But if they play how they did recently and if they will do again so many mistakes in the defence and have such a poor passing play, then they will clearly lose this match. Dusseldorf simply has the much better form, they play much more convincing and are more experienced and one class better in top clashes anyway. Furth's +0.25 handicap indicates that they are actually the stronger team but this is completely non-sense. Line has to be -0.5 here and nothing else, these are massive value odds on the home side. How I already mentioned, an away victory will be impossible to my mind, hence half loss should be the worst case.
 
FT 2:1

+ 6.86 u

Fortuna was brilliant in the first half and it was deserved that they were 2:0 in front. Penalty was a 50/50 decision. Second half Furth scored through their first good chance but it was irregular because a Furth player fouled before. Then it was pretty close in the end but actually Furth had zero goal chances after the 2:1 in the 60th minute. Hence deserved victory and -0.25 was wrong line after this course of game because Fortuna was superior in every aspect, especially in the first half.
 
Nice one Benny and exellent analysis as usual.
In future I'm gonna see if i can get these games on my big dish, be great for nights like tonight when theres bugger all else on.
 
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