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Benny1887 aka DSQUAREDLOL
Guest
Germany Bundesliga 2 - 17.12.2011: FSV Frankfurt - VfL Bochum
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/fsv-frankfurt-bochum-806362/#ah;2
VfL Bochum (-0.25)
Odds: 1.89 (SBOBet)
Stake: 5/10
The trend is your friend - whilst Frankfurt faces a huge crisis, Bochum lately improved a lot and in terms of quality, the guests are much better anyway. How I already wrote several times in my previews, Frankfurt is a team with a non-existing home advantage. They play in front of only very few people, their performances away from home are even better than their home displays because they prefer not to make the running and hence we can get some value odds here. If this game would have been in Bochum, it would probably be a low -0.75 or perhaps even a -1 line. Now we get a -0.25 on Bochum and due to the fact that Frankfurt are weaker at home than away and because of the fact that Bochum are not remarkable worse on the road, there's actually enough said.
Nevertheless I want to explain my selection more detailed. Frankfurt has big internal problems and their manager Hans-Jürgen Boysen is likely to be sacked if Frankfurt will not get at least a draw here. Their technical ability is decent at all, nothing special but at least they can play good football. Anyway they prefer to play away from home because they are good in doing fast breaks whereas they struggle with creating chances at home when they meet a rather defensive minded opponent. Also today I think that they will have problems to score, the only dangerous thing for Bochum could be Zafer Yelen's brilliant set pieces who is their most superior player anyway. Frankfurt's best defender Gledson is out since 4 weeks now and his missing is a massive blow for them. Since he is out, they tried many different options in the central defence but their defence has always been a big mess since then. Also their strong midfielder Stark will miss this game due to his 5th yellow card. Nonetheless I want to mention that their recent performances were not as bad as the result might suggest. They collapsed twice away from home and lost 4:0 in Furth and 4:0 in Berlin but in both games, they were the team with the better start. But this is clearly a lack of quality: they start pretty well in each away match but they have no good converter in the offensive and instead only opportunity killers like Macauley Chrisantus, Babacar Gueye and Karim Benyamina. Then their very bad defence makes some individual errors, the opponents take the 1:0 lead and they collapse. At home they do not even create goal chances because they do not get so much space to counter attack. They were able to get a 2:2 at home against strong team Paderborn in their last home match but Paderborn showed one of their weakest season displays whereas Frankfurt showed their best home performance. Indeed, Frankfurt is still without a victory at home since April 2011. And this is no bad luck, it is simply inability. Away from home they would sometimes deserve a bit more but at home they are extremely poor. Generally atmosphere in Frankfurt-Bornheim is quite bad, the manager is close to be sacked, they rather have a home disadvantage than an advantage and the players lack self-confidence for sure.
Bochum started as a big promotion favourite but their start was horrible. They sacked Friedhelm Funkel and since Andreas Bergmann is their manager, they improved a lot. Still they showed some weak displays but especially their last two performances were extremely strong. They smashed Aue 6:0 at home and were able to dominate table leader Dusseldorf at home and got a 1:1 there but they could have even won this. It seems that the 6:0 was a watershed event for them and they finally use their potential. Most important to me is their good offensive. To be succesful against Frankfurt, you actually only need a good offensive with some decent converters. Frankfurt's back four will make them the one or other premature xmas present anyway and Bochum have good players to convert such situation due to their coolness. And also, Bochum has the two strong Asian strikers, Takashi Inui and Jong Tae-Se. With regard to the tactical ability, Inui is the best player of the league. His problem is that he is not very steady but if we have luck and he will have a good day, then he will be able to decide the game for his own. North Korean striker Tae-Se recently improved some too and he is a very good converter. Generally the form of many Bochum players lately improved a lot. Björn Kopplin plays a poor season but last week he was brilliant and they showed two consecutive great performances. The only negative point could be the fact that they will have the game of the year in the cup against Bayern and maybe player's will be less focussed.
But to sum up, this is clearly a pick on the away team. Very poor form vs. good form, low quality vs. siginificantly bigger quality, no home advantage vs. decent travellers, horrible back four vs. offensive with a huge technical ability and hence I love this handicap on Bochum. I really do not think that Frankfurt will be able to achieve their first season victory just in their very bad situation against a team which recently experienced such a positive tendency. Draw is possible but should be the really worst case.
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/fsv-frankfurt-bochum-806362/#ah;2
VfL Bochum (-0.25)
Odds: 1.89 (SBOBet)
Stake: 5/10
The trend is your friend - whilst Frankfurt faces a huge crisis, Bochum lately improved a lot and in terms of quality, the guests are much better anyway. How I already wrote several times in my previews, Frankfurt is a team with a non-existing home advantage. They play in front of only very few people, their performances away from home are even better than their home displays because they prefer not to make the running and hence we can get some value odds here. If this game would have been in Bochum, it would probably be a low -0.75 or perhaps even a -1 line. Now we get a -0.25 on Bochum and due to the fact that Frankfurt are weaker at home than away and because of the fact that Bochum are not remarkable worse on the road, there's actually enough said.
Nevertheless I want to explain my selection more detailed. Frankfurt has big internal problems and their manager Hans-Jürgen Boysen is likely to be sacked if Frankfurt will not get at least a draw here. Their technical ability is decent at all, nothing special but at least they can play good football. Anyway they prefer to play away from home because they are good in doing fast breaks whereas they struggle with creating chances at home when they meet a rather defensive minded opponent. Also today I think that they will have problems to score, the only dangerous thing for Bochum could be Zafer Yelen's brilliant set pieces who is their most superior player anyway. Frankfurt's best defender Gledson is out since 4 weeks now and his missing is a massive blow for them. Since he is out, they tried many different options in the central defence but their defence has always been a big mess since then. Also their strong midfielder Stark will miss this game due to his 5th yellow card. Nonetheless I want to mention that their recent performances were not as bad as the result might suggest. They collapsed twice away from home and lost 4:0 in Furth and 4:0 in Berlin but in both games, they were the team with the better start. But this is clearly a lack of quality: they start pretty well in each away match but they have no good converter in the offensive and instead only opportunity killers like Macauley Chrisantus, Babacar Gueye and Karim Benyamina. Then their very bad defence makes some individual errors, the opponents take the 1:0 lead and they collapse. At home they do not even create goal chances because they do not get so much space to counter attack. They were able to get a 2:2 at home against strong team Paderborn in their last home match but Paderborn showed one of their weakest season displays whereas Frankfurt showed their best home performance. Indeed, Frankfurt is still without a victory at home since April 2011. And this is no bad luck, it is simply inability. Away from home they would sometimes deserve a bit more but at home they are extremely poor. Generally atmosphere in Frankfurt-Bornheim is quite bad, the manager is close to be sacked, they rather have a home disadvantage than an advantage and the players lack self-confidence for sure.
Bochum started as a big promotion favourite but their start was horrible. They sacked Friedhelm Funkel and since Andreas Bergmann is their manager, they improved a lot. Still they showed some weak displays but especially their last two performances were extremely strong. They smashed Aue 6:0 at home and were able to dominate table leader Dusseldorf at home and got a 1:1 there but they could have even won this. It seems that the 6:0 was a watershed event for them and they finally use their potential. Most important to me is their good offensive. To be succesful against Frankfurt, you actually only need a good offensive with some decent converters. Frankfurt's back four will make them the one or other premature xmas present anyway and Bochum have good players to convert such situation due to their coolness. And also, Bochum has the two strong Asian strikers, Takashi Inui and Jong Tae-Se. With regard to the tactical ability, Inui is the best player of the league. His problem is that he is not very steady but if we have luck and he will have a good day, then he will be able to decide the game for his own. North Korean striker Tae-Se recently improved some too and he is a very good converter. Generally the form of many Bochum players lately improved a lot. Björn Kopplin plays a poor season but last week he was brilliant and they showed two consecutive great performances. The only negative point could be the fact that they will have the game of the year in the cup against Bayern and maybe player's will be less focussed.
But to sum up, this is clearly a pick on the away team. Very poor form vs. good form, low quality vs. siginificantly bigger quality, no home advantage vs. decent travellers, horrible back four vs. offensive with a huge technical ability and hence I love this handicap on Bochum. I really do not think that Frankfurt will be able to achieve their first season victory just in their very bad situation against a team which recently experienced such a positive tendency. Draw is possible but should be the really worst case.
