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Grand National 2016

slick

slick

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Anybody any tips?
Not had a chance yet to look at this years runners but If I get a chance in the morning (late afternoon) I'll post up my thoughts:wasnme

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The Grand National takes place on Saturday 9th April and they're paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.
fantastic offers will ensure that you get great value from all the action at Aintree.

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With fantastic offers, Live Streaming and an extensive range of betting opportunities - bet365 is a great place to enjoy this year’s Grand National meeting at Aintree.

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Bet365 are also offering half your stake back on your each way bets, as long as you place them before midday tomorrow-and paying 5 places
 
No massively strong opinions on the race, but ended up with a short list of 4. Pretty much betting solely for interest, but granted even luck can see them all being competitive -

THE DRUID'S NEPHEW at 16's
MORNING ASSEMBLY at 25's
LE REVE at 66's
BALLYNAGOUR at 66's
 
Very rarely get a return from my national bets
I'm going for "omen" bets today , my side Porthmadog have an away fixture at Holywell today

my selections are
Holywell and Ucello Conti
 
Gallant Oscar for me. JP McManus bought it last year. It was fav for scottish national and got pulled out. Has been laid out for this race.

Druids Nephew was running a massive race last year so will prob do that as well.

Got Soll and Hadrians Approach in works sweep.
 
I used to love this race. Now, thanks to the PC brigade, it's just another long-distance handicap chase :mad:

Anyway, the ground is now soft after a further 7mm of rain overnight, and with more rain forecast from 2pm onwards, this years renewal will be a war of attrition.

I haven't looked at the race yet but the best value bet will be on the number of finishers. The average on Good or Good-to-Soft ground is usually about 17 (without checking) but on soft it's far less. Not many bookies offer odds on this but I've found a few...

Coral
15/8 - 14 or less
13/8 - 15 to 18
6/4 - over 18

Will Hill
5/1 - 10 or less
15/8 - 11 to 15
13/8 - 16 to 20
4/1 - 21 to 25
14/1 - 26 or more

SkyBet
10/3 - 12 or less
5/4 - 13 to 17
15/8 - 18 to 22
13/2 - 23 or more


Coral's 15/8 for 14 or less looks the best bet.
 
What kind of omen is this then?

"Holywell Town v Porthmadog - MATCH OFF
Today's match against Porthamdog at Halkyn Road has been called off.
After persistent rain over the past 12 hours, the pitch was deemed waterlogged by the match referee who inspected the pitch at 10.15am this morning.

The match will be rearranged in the next few weeks.

Updated 10:56 - 9 Apr 2016"
 
My Grand National shortlist is...

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW
MORNING ASSEMBLY
THE LAST SAMURAI

long shots are SOLL and KRUZHLININ
 
I've managed to lay 2.64 on Betfair for more than 17.5 finishers - so have got 8/13 (1.62) for 17 finishers or less (currently 1.34 to back)....only managed to get £20 matched but that looks like the value bet of the year to me. I'll be amazed if 18 or more get home in this ground, even with the modified fences.
 
map.JPG

Going is SOFT, GS in places (top course)

I've looked back at the previous years when the going has been soft or heavy...

year - going - finishers

2001 - heavy - 4
1998 - heavy - 6
1994 - heavy - 6
1987 - heavy - 14
1983 - soft - 10
1979 - heavy - 4
 
Gilgamboa and Saint Are for me. The Mrs has Unioniste, and the kids have Black Thunder and Soll
 
Good luck Seen but I certainly wouldn't be betting on the number of finishers being as low as 14 myself. It's certainly not going to be heavy and you can't compare the national in soft in 1983 with this course. In fact, it could be logical to suggest that the better the ground, the faster the pace and the more horses are likely to fall. Yes you're going to get some pulled up and you've already got one non-runner on our side but my guess would be 16/ minimum. Of course you've always got the change of carnage at one fence bringing four or five down in one incident.

Like I say, I won't be betting on it so good luck
 
Of course I could be wrong lol. 3 fallers in first two fences leaves 36
 
10 jumped 35 left I reckon ...no rocky creek pulled up 34
 
looks like you could be right seen fingers crossed
 
Yeah, 16 finished. I did manage to turn a small profit (lost at bookies but won on Betfair, as under 17.5 went as low as 1.18 I think so traded a good position).

Was quite worried for a while though as loads seemed left until the last few fences where the ground eventually took it's toll.

I guess you could say only 12 should have finished as the last 4 home were beaten over 200 lengths :eek: and were exhausted but were allowed to walk home - they certainly wouldn't have gotten over another fence.

The fences do seem a great deal easier, I suppose that's a good thing for the horses but the race is certainly not the same anymore.
 
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