3.30 Carlisle - Applaus
APPLAUS hasnt shown alot of late but has come down as a result and coming to a course he clearly loves makes me think that theres a chance of a decent run and at the odds im willing to take a chance. Was beaten over CD last time out but that was his first poor run here over CD with his record over CD now being three wins and five places from nine runs. 3lb claimer Emma Smith Chaston in the plate and she has two wins and two places from her 11 rides aboard the horse so far , and when riding for Micky Hammond over the last three weeks they have an 11% strike rate. Trainer has a 14% strike rate over the last three weeks and has a 24.6% strike rate when bringing his runners here over the last five years.
1.47 Lingfield - Sandy Paradise - McClean House
An open looking race where a few look to hold serious chances but theres two that particularly interest me , first one of those is McCLEAN HOUSE who arrives on the back of a short head win over Baldomero last time out over 7f here at Leafy and i think that the step up to todays mile can see him in an even better light here today off just a lb higher. Hes only four with seven runs (winning four of them) on the clock so probably hasnt done improving yet and tbh hes in good hands on that score. Oisin Murphy was on board for the first time on that lto win and hes re united with the horse again this afternoon which is another plus in my book , has a 26% strike rate over the last two weeks and has a 20.6% strike rate over the last five years when coming to Lingfield. Trainer Andrew Balding is also enjoying a purple patch at the moment with a 31% strike rate over the last fourteen days , and when coming here this season he has a 27.8% strike rate. When the pair have combined their talents over the last three weeks they come away with a 40% strike rate. Bottom weight SANDY PARADISE interests me and comes into this after a 1/2 length second to the re opposing Larado over CD , and i think theres a good chance that he could reverse those placings today. A win and a place from his three runs over CD , has yet to win from this mark or higher but has placed twice in three attempts so not beyond him. Richard Hughes has just this one out today and hes enjoying a 33% strike rate over the last two weeks , whilst Finley Marsh who rode him last time is re united with the horse on his sole start of the day.
8.00 Wolverhampton - Storm Asset
At the prices I like STORM ASSET chances in this one , hasnt shown much lately but is now down to his last winning mark which i think has to give him a chance here as does the fact that hes never been unplaced over CD with a win and two places from three runs , overall at the course he has two wins and three places from nine outings. Was a decent enough fourth when last seen a coupla months ago and if ready to roll after a break i think he can definatley make his presence felt. Dougie Costello on board for the first time and trainer Tony Carroll has been holding his own of late.
8.30 Wolverhampton - Astrophysics - Doctor Mozart
Going for two in the finale , ASTROPHYSICS is the first of those , who hasnt been showing great form but i think in all fairness hes running better than the figures suggests , hes come 5th , 7th and 6th in his last three races but hasnt been beaten beyond 2 1/2 lengths in any of them so i dont think its a big leap to think that he could go close here especially when you consider that as a result of recent runnings his marks still continues to drop , and hes won from much higher in the past plus i think the drop to 5f is in his favour. Despite his age i think he still has a few wins in him yet and hopefully tonight is gonna be one of them. Generally tends to do well here at Wolverhampton with two wins and three places from nine runs over CD (five wins and eight places overall) , class and draw both look okay and i think he can get involved if on song. Dougie Costello takes the ride , and he was three wins and a place from twelve rides to date , and he has a 14.3% strike rate at the course this term along with a tidy profit of +£19.50. Trainer Tony Carroll has a 14% strike rate over the last three weeks , and an 11% strike rate here overall. DOCTOR MOZART is the other selection , last two races has been poor admittedly but hes better than that and before those two outings his figures were - 1,3.4 .. with the win coming over tonights CD. Has won twice and placed twice in five runs over CD , and like Astrophysics comes into this on a winnable looking mark as hes won off higher in the past. Philip Kirby sends just this one to the meeting and he has a 16% strike rate over the last fortnight , whilst Jason Hart takes the ride , been riding well lately with a 24% strike rate in the last couple of weeks , and when coming here this term has etched up a 15.8% strike rate. Think he can make his presence felt from a decent looking draw.
