Horse Racing Bets 20th February 2024

[SAMOAN]

12.27 Fontainebleau - INZEO DU GOUET - Possibly better as a chaser nowadays, but has been found a winnable race and has won a claiming hurdle before at 9's.

12.50 Vaal - ALPHABETTY - Not really threatening, but pretty consistent of late and has been dropped to a rating of 86. Just her 2nd start over 10f and fair EW shout at 14's.

1.25 Vaal - PRINCESS AZARIAH and ONE RELIGION - PA was the only one of 5 not to win for me a few weeks back and cost me over £100k. Will be winning soon and gets in off a light weight today at 12's. OR has been moderate in 3 post maiden runs, but is quickly upped in trip and can improve for that at 14's.

2.57 Fontainebleau - KELLY D'OLVA - Back off a break, but had been progerssing nicely in 3 runs and should be thereabouts at 4's.

 

[Sean]

3.40 Taunton - Wild Max
Plenty look to hold chances in this one , but the top weight WILD MAX interests me at a decent price , one of three entries for Paul Nicholls , he making his re appearance after an astounding 599 days off so obviously his well being is gonna have to be taken on trust but the fact hes been kept on after this long off says to me they think a bit of him and although theres a fair chance that he may , obviously , need this outing i think at the price hes worth a shot to nothing. Was enjoying a winning sequence when last seen , winning his last two races by a combined total of 55 lengths. Not sure that a return to hurdles is the best for him but then again a start over the smaller obstacles makes sense , has won four (and placed in a further two) hurdles from his twelve and hes unbeaten in two starts over this afternoons CD which caught my eye and the fact that the trainer is adept at placing his horses makes me think that he could make a winning re appearance. Looks to be well treated on his best form and hes won off higher marks than todays and the class and going are both fine. Paul Nicholls team has been on for of late with a 35% strike rate over the last three weeks , and this season has a 31.8% strike rate when visiting Taunton , and overall has a 30% strike rate. Angus Cheleda is in the hot seat , and his 5lb claim will help the cause , and he has won on the horse before which is always a good thing to see from my point of view , and he has an overall strike rate here of 13%. Obviously others come into this with more pressing claims , but for me i think given his overall form / profile hes worth a go at a nice price.

8.30 Newcastle - Marcello Si
Gonna side with MARCELLO SI in this , has won two of his last three outings with the last one of those being over tonights CD where he beat the re opposing Shines Ambition by 1/2 length and i think theres a good chance he can go well once again and confirm those placings. Is one from one over CD and has two wins and a place to his name from seven outings overall here at Newcastle. Been in decent form since coming back from 50 days off and i cant see any reason why he shouldnt be putting his best hoove forward and going close here. Clifford Lee has ridden him to those two wins making his record on the horse - 4,5,1,4,1 so there or thereabouts in the main. Trainer Michael Dods has been doing well when sending his runners here with an 18.2% strike rate this season.

 

[SAMOAN]

10.30 Vaal - BACARDI BABE - Originally was not going to bother with this race, but plenty to like about BB's debut and now officially too big at 50's.

 

[SAMOAN]

4.55 Newcastle - PRINCE ACHILLE - Back off a break, but solid enough in recent runs at 12's.