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Horse Racing Bets 29th January 2025
- Thread starter SAMOAN
- Start date
Sean
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7.30 Kempton - Ardennes EW 12/1 / Distant Rumble EW 18/1
A couple in this one catch my eye , first of those is Ardennes who was plumb last at Leafy last time out and will certainly have to up his game to get involved here i admit but thats not beyond the realms of possibility im hoping. Placed on his sole start here over CD , had put in two better efforts previous to his last time run with a third at Southwell and before that a second here over CD , beaten by Cyclonite who then come third on his next outing. Theres a couple in the race who was ahead of him in his Lingfield race but i am hopeful that he can do better and come out on top with those here , trainer Michael Appleby is kinda local to me (not that far away anyway) so i like to see him do well , has a 16% strike rate over the last two weeks and has an 11.5% strike rate when coming here overall. Fred Larsson in the saddle and he has a place from his three rides to date , has a 10% strike rate over the same two week period. If he can come into this in the same sort of form as his two previous runs i think he has a good chance of making the frame at a decent price. The other one i like the look of is Distant Rumble , had been showing some decent form before winning on his handicap debut last time out over this CD , beating Sabrimento by a cosy looking length and a half. Obviously has more on his plate here with a 6lb penalty to contend with but as a three year old there could obviously be more to come and i wouldnt discount his chances. Draw could of been kinder admittedly but im still hopeful he can go close despite that. One from one here due to that lto win. Roger Teal has been in decent form lately with a 33% strike rate in the last couple of weeks , and he has a 20% strike rate when sending his horses here this term. George Bass is one from one on the horse , and his 3lb claim will help to offset the penalty somewhat , has a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks and when he and the trainer have paired up over the last three weeks they have a 100% strike rate. Will have to improve i think but hopefully he can and at the price i think hes worth a pop.
8.00 Kempton - Cornish Storm EW 13/2
A few of these come into this in decent form but i like the chances of Cornish Storm who i think is an interesting runner here. Hasnt been since February of last year when running in a maiden hurdle .. so obviously his well being and fitness have to obviously be taken on trust but given his overall profile i think theres a fair chance he can go well and make his presence felt and at the price i think its worth a shot to nothing. Won here over CD back in 2023 and followed that up with a sound third at Wolverhampton , again over todays distance , had a break and was then sent hurdling by his trainer where he acquitted himself well tbh. His only career win has come here and it makes me think that he could go well because of the return here (probably wrong but thats the way im thinking) .. I think its interesting that Rossa Ryan takes the ride as he was on board for that only win (making him one from one on the horse) , has been in cracking form lately with a 25% strike rate in the past month and a profit of +£9.50. Stuart Kittow is a trainer i rate and he sends just this one today. If ready to roll i think he could go well.
5.17 Dundalk - Sporting Hero 7/2
I know nothing about the irish racing so probably best to treat this one with kids gloves if im being honest , but by my ratings and on paper i think Sporting Hero looks to have a solid chance here. Been in the frame in his last four starts , winning twice and placing twice (third and second) , all four of those runs have come here at Dundalk with two being over todays 6f - won both of those - and the other two being over 5f ... denied by a head last time i think returning to 6f will play to his strengths and im hoping that he can make it three wins from three over his last three runs over this evenings CD. Nicola Burns in the plate and she takes off a handy 7lb and has been on board the horse in those last four runs making her record two wins and two places from four rides , cant see him being far away come the business end of things.
A couple in this one catch my eye , first of those is Ardennes who was plumb last at Leafy last time out and will certainly have to up his game to get involved here i admit but thats not beyond the realms of possibility im hoping. Placed on his sole start here over CD , had put in two better efforts previous to his last time run with a third at Southwell and before that a second here over CD , beaten by Cyclonite who then come third on his next outing. Theres a couple in the race who was ahead of him in his Lingfield race but i am hopeful that he can do better and come out on top with those here , trainer Michael Appleby is kinda local to me (not that far away anyway) so i like to see him do well , has a 16% strike rate over the last two weeks and has an 11.5% strike rate when coming here overall. Fred Larsson in the saddle and he has a place from his three rides to date , has a 10% strike rate over the same two week period. If he can come into this in the same sort of form as his two previous runs i think he has a good chance of making the frame at a decent price. The other one i like the look of is Distant Rumble , had been showing some decent form before winning on his handicap debut last time out over this CD , beating Sabrimento by a cosy looking length and a half. Obviously has more on his plate here with a 6lb penalty to contend with but as a three year old there could obviously be more to come and i wouldnt discount his chances. Draw could of been kinder admittedly but im still hopeful he can go close despite that. One from one here due to that lto win. Roger Teal has been in decent form lately with a 33% strike rate in the last couple of weeks , and he has a 20% strike rate when sending his horses here this term. George Bass is one from one on the horse , and his 3lb claim will help to offset the penalty somewhat , has a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks and when he and the trainer have paired up over the last three weeks they have a 100% strike rate. Will have to improve i think but hopefully he can and at the price i think hes worth a pop.
8.00 Kempton - Cornish Storm EW 13/2
A few of these come into this in decent form but i like the chances of Cornish Storm who i think is an interesting runner here. Hasnt been since February of last year when running in a maiden hurdle .. so obviously his well being and fitness have to obviously be taken on trust but given his overall profile i think theres a fair chance he can go well and make his presence felt and at the price i think its worth a shot to nothing. Won here over CD back in 2023 and followed that up with a sound third at Wolverhampton , again over todays distance , had a break and was then sent hurdling by his trainer where he acquitted himself well tbh. His only career win has come here and it makes me think that he could go well because of the return here (probably wrong but thats the way im thinking) .. I think its interesting that Rossa Ryan takes the ride as he was on board for that only win (making him one from one on the horse) , has been in cracking form lately with a 25% strike rate in the past month and a profit of +£9.50. Stuart Kittow is a trainer i rate and he sends just this one today. If ready to roll i think he could go well.
5.17 Dundalk - Sporting Hero 7/2
I know nothing about the irish racing so probably best to treat this one with kids gloves if im being honest , but by my ratings and on paper i think Sporting Hero looks to have a solid chance here. Been in the frame in his last four starts , winning twice and placing twice (third and second) , all four of those runs have come here at Dundalk with two being over todays 6f - won both of those - and the other two being over 5f ... denied by a head last time i think returning to 6f will play to his strengths and im hoping that he can make it three wins from three over his last three runs over this evenings CD. Nicola Burns in the plate and she takes off a handy 7lb and has been on board the horse in those last four runs making her record two wins and two places from four rides , cant see him being far away come the business end of things.