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Horse Racing Bets Friday 4th November

S

SAMOAN

Guest
3.45 Greyville - GROUND BREAKER - Late bet, but just looks too big at 40's for one so nicely bred.
 
4.25 Greyville - Probably more speed in this race than quality and the presence of an odds on, tempts me into a bet. Going with 3 altenatives to the FAV, all at EW prices -

KUTLWANOSLOVE ( Could be drawn better, but fair debut this c & d and can inore 2nd run as saddle slipped. Shade big for me at 20's )
SAZERAC ( moderate debut this track when green and immediately tries the extra 200m. Possible improver at 14's )
SOMNIUM ( Below par second run after a fair debut this c & dLooking for improvement with Blinkers added and Anthony Delpech booked )
 
4.15 Warwick - PHOENICIANA - Lots of NR's, so very surprised to get 15/2 on this one. Probably does need to improve to be fair, but not sure that the race has any real depth. Decent EW for me.
 
5.00 Greyville - ROY'S ROYALE and HOLD THE LINE - Both single figure, solid looking form chances.

5.30 Greyville - 3 EW shots and combination FC/TC -

TAKU WIND ( Moderate post maiden run, lightly raced, could do better with Keegan DeMelo back up )
ASTROMAN ( Not taken advantage of some good draws lately, but has placed this c & d and again is nicely berthed. Run of bad draws is inevitable, so needs to take advantage soon )
CAUGHT IN THE DEEP ( Ex Geoff Woodruff . Rested 14 wks. Poor post maiden form, but hopefully will go better on the poly. Definite EW interest at 33's )
 
6.00 Greyville - CHENNAI BABE - I am loathed to say that I have " found one here " but I think that I have found one here. Only negative for me is the weight, but struggling to find too many other issues. She has 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd, from 7 goes at the trip, has a good young jockey booked and is having her 2nd run back off a break ( definitely needed it last time ) She also looks almost certain to get the strong pace she needs and there are several front runners present. Previous Polytrack run, not conclusive, but most of Kahal's go on the surface and if anything beats her, I don't think it will be this.

Had what is best described as a disproportionate bet on this one, but just felt I had to go big at the ridiculous price of 16's. Of course it may turn out that I have simply over - estimated my ability ( left myself open there ) and that this one is a bit of a genuine outsider, but can't see it myself. Took the b.o.g at 16's and would hope to see her open in single figures.

Definitely a nervy watch for me as I am rapidly thinking that I have gone too big and might end up regretting it, but what's done is done.
 
Just going back to the above post, disproportionate equals genius if she wins and stupid if she finishes outside the 3.
 
SAMOAN said:
5.00 Greyville - ROY'S ROYALE and HOLD THE LINE - Both single figure, solid looking form chances.
Click to expand...

HTL won nicely, but RR got done late on for the FC. Not so worried about the potential dividend, but it would have taken the sting out the 6:00 race.
 
6.05 Dundalk - DIXON'S ONE and I AM TITANIUM - Just trying to sneak a place from either of these 66/1 shots. Plenty of rags in the field and just think these 2 are slightly less " raggish "
 
Just popping these last few in -

6.30 Greyville - Combination FC/TC with these -

ROY'S TWILIGHT
ROY'S RAKARA
DRURY LANE

7.15 Greyville - LEDIMASS PRINCESS at 8's.

7.48 Greyville - LAST SUMMER at 12's

 
SAMOAN said:
Just popping these last few in -

6.30 Greyville - Combination FC/TC with these -

ROY'S TWILIGHT
ROY'S RAKARA
DRURY LANE

7.15 Greyville - LEDIMASS PRINCESS at 8's.

7.48 Greyville - LAST SUMMER at 12's
Click to expand...
Roy's Rakara a winner at 33's. Annoyingly no forecast. Other 2 poor
 
SAMOAN said:
6.00 Greyville - CHENNAI BABE - I am loathed to say that I have " found one here " but I think that I have found one here. Only negative for me is the weight, but struggling to find too many other issues. She has 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd, from 7 goes at the trip, has a good young jockey booked and is having her 2nd run back off a break ( definitely needed it last time ) She also looks almost certain to get the strong pace she needs and there are several front runners present. Previous Polytrack run, not conclusive, but most of Kahal's go on the surface and if anything beats her, I don't think it will be this.

Had what is best described as a disproportionate bet on this one, but just felt I had to go big at the ridiculous price of 16's. Of course it may turn out that I have simply over - estimated my ability ( left myself open there ) and that this one is a bit of a genuine outsider, but can't see it myself. Took the b.o.g at 16's and would hope to see her open in single figures.

Definitely a nervy watch for me as I am rapidly thinking that I have gone too big and might end up regretting it, but what's done is done.
Click to expand...
Got this one completely wrong and paid for it. Race went as expected, but she just never picked up
 
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