Horse Racing Bets Monday 19th October

[beamer]

Ponty 5.10. Jack Luey. Win @ 10/1

Jack Luey bombed out in this race last year, but this looks weaker and it's possible the blinkers have helped since applied. The combination of age and new mark may be against him, but handles these conditions well and last C5 win was a decent race with the 2nd and 3rd being raised 8lb + since that run.

Flashy Queen would have got a cover bet, even though stepping up in class but really don't get why they are not using a claiming jock again.

Ocean Sheridan may possibly run out of track.

 

[Topdog]

Good luck

 

[beamer]

Cheers @Topdog

Gone for another as I think the fav is just too short.

Ponty 2.40 Stormy Art. Win @ 7/2

I don't now how Shinelikeadiamond went in the 1st at Windsor, but Hold On Magnolia looks a short price for this maiden. Fahey and Dods will know exactly were they stand with these 2yo's, but Dod's 2yo maiden record is better than I thought and although there is a risk with the lay off and going is another issue, SA's dubut run behind two fahey 100 rated 2yo's looks sound.

He finished 6th in that race, were the 3rd has yet to run but the 4th is also a 100 horse, the 5th 83 and 7th now off 77.

He could easily be a mid 80's horses and I'm not convinced HOM can reach those heights; I'm missing something with the sales price as he was sold back to the breeder for 1peanuts, but even ignoring that information he looks short to me. He was an "eyecather" lto but nothing has come out of that race and the trip and sire s/r are also a concern for me.

Stormy Art should improve for the trip, but it is a race were the on course market should tell us about whether he's ready.

 

[SAMOAN]

3:30 Flamingo Park - FAV a bit short for me in the concluding h'cap over in South Africa. Decided to go with 3, all at EW prices -

TARGET FIVE ( Top jockey on last time, but did not see thr trip out. Heaviest defeats have come over these longer trips and should be able to lie handy this trip from stall 3.
RICH APPROVAL ( Still quite ligtly raced and does have a win to his name. Back down to a mark of 66 and 2 decent efforts from 5 at the track )
KING ALFRED ( Not always the cleanest of starters, so stall 1 may not be ideal. Does hold some fair form however and looks fairly weighted. Blinkers back on and interesting at 40's )

 

[SAMOAN]

4:50 Windsor - SWIFT BLADE and SILVER LINING - SB has major claims on his Spring form and is dropping into class 6 company. SL is shorter than I would have liked for an 11 race maiden, but is in decent form.