Going to try and bag an audacious Spring Mile/Lincoln double today
Haven't got time to analyse all the runners, so using a technique I sometimes use to whittle down big-field handicaps to a shortlist - a combination of the RPR/TS ratings from the Racing Post and any strong trends from past winners. Qualifers must be within 6 points of top-rated RPR and within 11 points of top-rated TS.
Strong trend for the Spring Mile is that 8 of the last 10 winners were 4yo's so the younger group clearly have an edge. Using this with the RPR and TS rules we are left with just 3 qualifiers, and they are all big prices. All are having their first run of the season but that isn't a worry as the last 10 winners of this race were too.
books (betfair)
33/1 (34.0) - SIR RODERIC
33/1 (36.0) - CANDELISA
33/1 (40.0) - LONDON PROTOCOL
Of the three, I like
CANDELISA the best, in fact the more I look at it the more I think it's a cracking value bet. He should be fit and ready to go as his best run came first time out last season when touched off at Pontefract, and his two next best runs came the twice he's contested big-fields. First one was when 5th of 22 over 6.5f here, he ran way above his mark here, being one of the lowest rated runners in the field yet only beaten 4 lengths at 100/1. The other run was when 3rd of 17 at York on his penultimate outing after 77 days off, so once again proving he goes well fresh, on his first try at 1m. He was only beaten by two of the co-favourites and it was a good run, expecially as the ground might have been a touch too fast.
His final run of the season was at Carlisle, in a race run at a crawl which turned in to a sprint, this didn't suit at all and he got outpaced before running on again too late. They'll surely go quicker today and as long as his draw isn't a negative (drawn 1 but they usually come down the centre in one group) I do think he'll run far better than his odds suggest.
SIR RODERIC likes cut and also goes well fresh (form figs 411) but the main worry is the field size - his 5 wins last season all came in fields of 9 or less, and the only time he's encountered a big field he could never get competitive and finished a well-beaten 12th, although perhaps the 1m2f trip was too far.
LONDON PROTOCOL looks up against it to be honest, he also needs to prove himself in a big field and his mark looks a bit high, but he did hit the frame a few times last year and his trainer is in top form (4 wins from last 7 runners).
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The Lincoln is more difficult to narrow down, as there are no really strong stats apart from that the last 10 winners have been aged between 4 and 6, but this still leaves us with 9 qualifiers when the RPR/TS method is applied. Unlike the Spring Mile, the draw in this race does seem relevant when there is cut in the ground. The last 4 runnings on ground softer than Good...
2016 ... 22 - 2 - 18 (22)
2014 ... 3 - 22 - 20 (17)
2013 ... 3 - 1 - 19 (22)
2010 ... 1 - 5 - 10 (21)
It does seem that there is an advantage to be drawn out on the flanks, either very high or very low, 11 of the last 12 horses to finish in the first three were drawn like this, the only one not to be was the 3rd in 2010 and he was beaten a fair way.
I think this might be down to the Spring Mile runners opening up the ground down the middle, bit of a guess but it does make logical sense.
So applying this we are left with 4 qualifiers...
books (betfair)
10/1 (11.0) - DONNCHA
33/1 (50.0) - EDDYSTONE ROCK
22/1 (25.0) - MASTER CARPENTER
28/1 (36.0) - WITHERNSEA
DONNCHA was beaten a neck in the Spring Mile last season after just missing the cut for this race. Goes very well in these big-field handicaps and big chance.
EDDYSTONE ROCK is hard to fancy on his form since moving over from Ireland, but maybe he didn't take to racing on the snow the last twice. Hooded first time and ideally needs further. Not impossible but would be a surprise winner.
MASTER CARPENTER usually contests Pattern races but is winless since the summer of 2015, but that has seen his handicap mark drop from 110 to 99 for this return to a handicap. Has never won after a lengthy break but does like cut in the ground and has a squeak.
WITHERNSEA was well beaten on his two previous tries at 1m, so has stamina very much to prove, but has won 2 of his 4 starts here and handles big fields. Chance off bottom weight if he gets the trip.
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Okay, so I'm doing all 7 qualifers in 12 ew doubles, even if a few of them are hard to fancy. Nice payout if I can get it up.
Also doing
CANDELISA each-way as 33/1 looks way too big, and
DONNCHA a win bet with the pair of them in an each-way double. Will probably put some keep bets in in-running on
CANDELISA at massive odds as he might go a big price if he gets outpaced before staying on late.
